Equinties - York Ebor festival day 4

Gm Equinauts

Sad to see our beast of a boy, COLTRANE not be able to deliver yesterday. I think the result was a mix of both an inspired ride by Hollie Doyle’s husband and a very poor error of judgment by those in behind him.

Ngl, he’s such a machine and loves York (he bolted up at the meeting in the Melrose two years ago) I thought yesterday would be a bit of a show case, but such is racing, and you shouldn’t think any lesser of him because like all the other BGP grads, he’s been very, very good to us in the past.

Like MASTER MILLINER, he’ll need a proper freshen up and both will be back to run huge races.

Let’s dive in.

York Ebor festival – Day 4 preview

Gr3 Strensell Stakes

MIGHTY ULYSSES heads the market in York’s opening race of the day today as he looks to build on his Newmarket win lto, which was interestingly the first winner Dettori and the Gosdens had together after their little break-up/make-up episode (which lasted about an hour).

This ULYSSES colt ran five times between April 19th and July 7th and comes into today off the back of a 44-day break and steps up in trip to 1m1f.

John & Thady Gosden’s three-year-old had trouble at Epsom over 1m2f earlier in the season and this is his first try at something further than a mile since that run – he tends to make the running in his races, which will suit the track bias but Frankie will have to make sure he stays the extra furlong.

Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes win:

Shadwell’s ALFAILA is the closest in the market to Mighty Ulysses and comes into the contest fresh from an easy Listed success at Pontefract 27 days ago, but he did get pumped by MU lto and just can’t see that form being reversed.

The top two in the betting are making up for around 78% of the market, leaving the likes of BASHKIROVA, SONNY LISTON and MASEKELA a bit unloved in the betting which is odd given how much Haggas’ BASHKIROVA was smashed up before the off in her last race, a much better one for that matter, the Gr 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

One of the few horses in the field to carry any Group 1 form to the table is FINEST SOUND for the Simon & Ed Crisford team. An EXCEED AND EXCEL gelding, FINEST SOUND was second to ALFAREEQ in the Gr1 in Meydan and has mixed it with the likes of MOSTAHDAF in the Darley Stakes last year – on old form, he can’t be discounted.

Our view: We don’t have a strong argument for one here and tbh, don’t really care for it. MIGHTY ULYSSES looks the one to beat but the form at Newmarket lto doesn’t look good and he’s had a lot of racing this season already.

That said, he holds the next in the betting, ALFAILA. I don’t think SONNY LISTON is good enough to win this. BASHKIROVA carries more weight than them all (due to age) and she could struggle there. And I don’t think the rest are good enough. Tbh, the fact the Gosden’s put MU in the St James’s Palace, they must think he is a Gr 1 horse and therefore should be winning this weak Gr 3 but no risk on.

Meydan Gr1 second:

Gr 2 City Of York

SACRED heads the betting. It was such a good run at Royal Ascot but she was too far back and the same applies at Goodwood where she may have had excuses.

SACRED’s Hungerford success:

KINROSS is a major contender. Slipped up the rail lto at Goodwood, in front of Sacred but behind Sandrine. Ground may be an issue today, has done most of his running with some ease in it. He’s a ‘nearly’ horse, never quite gets his head in front.

It could be a big week for the likeable Miss Rausing as she is represented by SANDRINE. Has York form when she was second in the Gr2 Lowther Stakes. After two fine runs over a mile this year she got her trip when winning the Gr2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood beating KINROSS and SACRED. Prominent runner she may well be hard to peg back.

Last month’s Lennox, today’s top three in the market all featured that day:

You could put JUMBY and ROHAAN in the same bracket. I feel like I know these two lads better than my own mates. Admirable, consistent and still only a 4yo, JUMBY was a beast lto at Newbury winning the Gr2 Hungerford Stakes (the race SACRED won last year), maybe the race collapsed in front of him, but he won well and Eve loves him. POGO was in there, probably ran a bit free. He runs today and although he is a very capable horse, he should come up short again today.

AL SUHAIL is also a Group 2 winner. He won the Challenge stakes at Newmarket on good to soft. He had a shocker in Dubai where he finished 13th of 16, when the 10/11f. Dubawi/Appleby/Buick always gives you shivers.

The verdict: SACRED was one of our strongest bets at Royal Ascot, and we’re not leaving her today. That was a monster run after 12 months off, she may well have ‘bounced’ at Goodwood where she was too far back and looked a little flat. A change of tactics, a more positive ride and she’ll have Marquand with his head down in a driving finish and first past the post. We know she’s good, she just needs to fucking do it.

EBOR HANDICAP

This is a big one, the namesake race, and it has attracted a maximum field of 22 to race for the £500k contest.

There are too many horses to preview but that’s fine because half of them can’t win so I’ll just highlight a few and get on with the ‘our view’ section.

EARL OF TYRONE currently tops the market, a Paddy Twomey trained gelding who beat the recent Irish St Leger Trial successor RAISE YOU in the Listed Martin Molony Stakes in June. RAISE YOU was very unfortunate in the race but that is without a doubt the form to beat coming in here hence he’s so short in the market at 5-4/1.

Similar to the astounding progression of HIGHFIELD, this four-year-old was rated 77 at the beginning of April and now has an official rating of 105 just four months on – he runs two pounds well-in today and has to be seriously considered back up to 1m6f, though coming out of stall eight is a small worry.

Another Irish raider who comes in with a chance is LICENCE for the previously mentioned Ger Lyons, a tenderly handled four-year-old who has only the four runs under his belt, most recently a solid fourth lto.

This form could end up being worth its weight in gold by the time 2022 is through as both the winner, GEAR UP and second, CLEVELAND could both run ‘down under’ in the Melbourne Cup. How much gold could $4.4m AUD buy?

LICENCE was staying on at the finish under a calm Colin Keane and based on that run, the step up to 1m6f should be no issue. Plus, he’s by FRANKEL and he’s the GOAT.

Gr3 Ballyroan Stakes lto:

One horse who is fresh on the mind is ALFRED BOUCHER, Ian William’s six-year-old who bolted up earlier in the week at York. Tbh, I think its bullshit he’s running. Someone’s being fucking greedy and if it’s the owner, Ian should have had more sense (or balls) to say get back in your box.

‘But they’re just taking their chance’

They’re taking their chance get more money. That’s it. Look, he might run well and then be given a long break but I’m saying he finishes nowhere, it’ll prove a complete waste of time and their horse will need longer off.

Next in the betting is OKITA SOUSHI for Joseph O’Brien. We backed him at a price for Royal Ascot where he placed and after that he ran well bumping into a well-handicapped stable mate at Leopardstown. Despite the good form, the reason I like this lad is for his pedigree – it’s fucking lovely. He’s by the absolute king of sires, GALILEO and out of a multiple Group winning mare – so he’s regally bred.

Recent stats to note:

Ger Lyons is the only trainer in today’s lineup to have saddled a winner in the Ebor in the last 20 years – his record reads one winner (MUSTAJEER, 2019) and one place from two runners. That’s a pretty good stat.

Andrew Balding, Hughie Morrison, and William Haggas are the three trainers to have sent out 12 runners in the race without a win.

Only two horses, have won the Ebor from a stall lower than 12 in the last 10 years and they are LITIGANT from six and MUSTAJEER from two.

Danny Tudhope is 0-10 in the race, he gets the leg up on GET SHIRTY, a horse who is seeking a fourth straight victory.

Our view: The Irish love winning this race, so we’re siding with them today in the fave, EARL OF TYRONE and OKITA SOUSHI.

EARL OF TYRONE is a Group horse in a handicap. Despite the trouble in running RAISE YOU had against him lto, EOT did it well and think with his running style, he might just nick a lead and not stop.

Joseph O’Brien has big entries for OKITA SOUSHI and this could be a stepping stone on to much bigger things.

Away from York

Gr3 Atalanta Stakes - Sandown

We move over to Sandown for a look at their most interesting race of the day, the Atalanta Stakes for fillies and mares over the mile.

GRANDE DAME’s connections will be desperate to get some Gr2 black type sorted for her career at stud and today gives her one of her best chances to do so.

She hosed up over course and distance in the Listed Coral Distaff lto, beating OSCULA who has since franked the form in two Group 3 races. They obviously think a lot of this LOPE DE VEGA filly, they chucked her in the Gr1 Coronation Stakes after all, and James Doyle takes the ride.

The two who could spoil the party are FONTEYN and MISE EN SCENE. The former is currently 3/1 second favourite based on her recent effort to finish fourth in the Gr1 Nassau Stakes behind NASHWA. That was over 1m2f, she steps back down to a mile, a distance she has already beaten GRANDE DAME at in a Listed event in May – she was green as grass in the Nassau but still managed to stick on towards the end so she could be open to further improvement at a distance that will suit her better.

And the latter, MISE EN SCENE, was fancied by a few to run a huge race in the 1000 Guineas before being pulled out. Yes, since then she was very disappointing in the Irish equivalent behind HOMELESS SONGS, but that was her first start for 198 days so can be forgiven.

In that race, she was behind INSPIRAL, PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, and CACHET and ahead of WILD BEAUTY, CONCERT HALL, and MAGICAL LAGOON – double woof considering what some of these horses have gone on to achieve.

If she returns to that form following another 90-day break, then she could be one to keep an eye on.

A look back through the formbook sees that she was fourth in the hot af Gr1 bet365 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last October:

Our view: FONTEYN ran her best race to date in the Nassau Stakes over 1m2 but she did wander around in the closing suggesting going back to a mile is perfect. She’s got GRANDE DAME covered and could prove a good bet.

At the Curragh today

It’s a big day for Ballydoyle tomorrow as it is the Irish Futurity Stakes Day, a day they love to target.

Aidan O’Brien has won the Group 2 event 14, yes 14, times over the last 25 years, and they are represented by AESOP’S FABLES looking to make it the big 15.

He is not the favourite though, that role is taken up by PROUD AND REGAL for Aidan’s son, Donnacha.

He is a Galileo colt, a touching sentiment to the late great sire to whom the race is named after – he was impressive lto at Leopardstown from the front and looks an exciting prospect.

35 minutes later, in the Gr2 Debutante Stakes, Aidan O’Brien’s MEDITATE, the Albany successor at Royal Ascot, returns to the turf after a 64-day lay-off. Again, the master of Ballydoyle has won this race 12 times and with Meditate currently the 1/2 favourite, he is likely to make it 13 later today.

Risk On

13.25 SEA LEGEND

Very taking debut and should improve massively from that being by SEA THE STARS. The winner of his maiden is the 6/4 fave for the Gr 2 on the same card today and SL had him beat 100 yards out. Lots of unexposed types in here so just a half bet at 5/2.

13.55 TELLUS

Going to be brave here taking on the 2/1 ON … ON! fave for Balding. On debut, TELLUS was catching a horse called KYEEMA and he’s gone to really frank that form this week by winning at York so we think it’s worth taking on a horse that’s taking such a huge amount of the market. Half bet at 11/4.

14.05 FONTEYN

For the above reasoning. Full bet at 3/1.

15.00 SACRED

Last chance for this girl, she owes us. Full bet at 7/2.

We think ROCKET RODNEY 16.45 can be used as leverage for any single. A double with strong fave, MORGAN FAIRY 18.50 pays 6/1. Small bet.

Small risk on the two Irish horses in ‘our view’ for the big race of the day, the Ebor.