Equinties - York day 3

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts

We said we were bullish and oh boy did we deliver.

THE FOXES 6/1 WINNER, CUBAN THUNDER 6/4 WINNER, FLAG OF ST GEORGE 15/8 WINNER and LAND OF LEGEND 8/1 PLACED (but really a moral winner given the ride).

Same again today, LFG!

COMPETITION

We've got merch in the pipe line. Want an EQUINTIES branded cap? If we hit 400 stables in the BGP League, we'll giving away 5 caps to the top 5 players in the BGP FANTASY LEAGUE.

Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

Now, let’s dive in.

Headline round up 

Clearer Derby picture?

Picking the Dante winner isn’t for everyone ;)

In a year that has seen the Derby picture look murky throughout, the Epsom Classic was given a boost yesterday as THE FOXES travelled supremely well into the Dante and won York’s feature event.

He saw off WHITE BERCH who made a late challenge down the nearside to win the notorious Derby Trial with PASSENGER receiving a horrible route through the race to finish third.

The well-named CHURCHILL colt is now 12/1 for the Epsom Derby having been 33/1 before the Dante and considering the few ahead of him in the market – AUGUSTE RODIN the main talking point – he could be a nice price considering his consistent class and pedigree.

Here's some wholesome content of the big boy getting hosed off:

SHaggas treble

Our old friend big Bill SHaggas was at it again at Salisbury yesterday, training a treble at the Wiltshire track. His wife Maureen was there repping him:

The winner didn't all go off shortie faves though, healthy prices of 9/4, 11/8 and 10/3 obliged but it was the the biggest price at 10/3 which was perhaps the most obvious bet. Check this interview out:

SHaggas mentions how nice TRUTHFUL is and her going in yesterday was real kick in the teeth for us here as we'd been waiting for her since this interview. Sick!

She's immaculately bred and hold big entries - one to follow!

BIG RACE PREVIEW

13.50 Listed Marygate Fillies' Stakes

This will be quick. 2 year old fillies over 5 furlongs all with Royal Ascot aspirations. SIGNORA CABELLO won this in 2018 before winning the Queen Mary at the Royal Meeting.

Last years renewal was won by Karl Burke and Clipper Logistics, and they have a nice contender here in DOROTHY LAWRENCE. Ryan Moore in the stirrups but this filly has to find 3 lengths with PERSIAN DREAMER.

PERSIAN DREAMER is the one to beat. By first season sire CALYX, and with the top team of Amo Racing. Her win at Newmarket was fairly decisive and she breaks from a nice stall position.

Karl Burke’s other runner in the race is the Middleham Park-owned GOT TO LOVE A GREY. Weirdly she was purchased by Amo Racing’s advisor Robson Aguiar for 52,000gns. She won her maiden by 6 lengths but it could have been 10 lengths if she hadn’t eased down. A certain HAVANA GREY was second in that same maiden in 2017. Feared.

GAIDEN reps the Hannon stable and is by gun sire MEHMAS. Second at Windsor to a decent KODIAC colt of William Haggas’ that followed up yesterday at Salisbury. Smart form, one to consider.

Rod Millman knows the time of day with his 2yos. Buick teams up with him to ride BEENHAM who is by HAVANA GREY and out of a mare who was Listed placed as a 2yo. Form ties with GAIDEN who comes out on top between the two of them.

TIERNEY is also by MEHMAS and is the mount of Oisin. She might not have liked the ground at Chester when a never nearer fourth in the Lily Agnes, the fillies in front of her had all had a run. Looks interesting.

Verdict: Amo Racing are a quality team and PERSIAN DREAMER is the number 1 pick. There will be one that hits the frame at a big price, Oisin has been riding the Knavesmire so well and TIERNEY could improve from her fourth in the Lily Agnes or BEENHAM who looked smart at Goodwood.

15.35 Group 2 Yorkshire Cup

In a race won by STRADIVARIUS three times in the last five years (we backed him last time) this year’s renewal is wide-open with three horses sharing the 11/4 co-favourite spot.

The money horse of the three is SISKANY for Charlie Appleby and William Buick who is returning back from an international tour that has included Meydan, Kempton, and Munich.

He was beaten by BROOME in Meydan lto thanks to a mustard Ryan Moore ride and now with a three-pound swing in the weights, he must have a great chance. Speaking of BROOME, he is the class act in the field having won at Royal Ascot (we backed (common theme)) and finished eighth in an Arc in conditions that wouldn’t have suited.

Having been tried at the middle distances until lto, he is still very unexposed at this trip, however, he did need all of the two miles to win lto and there is an argument to say that SISKANY hit the front too soon in Meydan. Today is a tough test.

QUICKTHORN is the final leg of the trio of 11/4 shots who has been drifting out all the time, though his victory over COLTRANE at York in August looks like stellar form – he has been unseen in his last three races so there is a bit of worry about him today.

We think COLTRANE bombed that day and QUICKTHORN was flattered, a fluke if you like, a total accident, a one in a million event that Hughie Morrison's yard needs to cherish BECAUSE HE WILL NEVER BEAT COLTRANE AGAIN.

Amazingly, last year’s St Leger winner is as big as 11/2 as ELDAR ELDAROV is another big drifter in the market – probs because his form of beating NEW LONDON and ZECHARIAH isn’t vintage though he looks to be improving.

Verdict: SISKANY is consistent and should come out on top here. A mixture of the drop in trip and a reverse in weights against BROOME will help. 5 year old generally have a good record in the race and he misses a penalty.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

14.40 Newbury

BAHEER is a strong son of MEHMAS who cost 100,000gns as a yearling. His pedigree isn’t very inspiring with the dam being unraced and yet to produce a winner from her first two foals. Second dam is a full sister to Gr2 winner BALTHAZAAR’S GIFT.

BATTLE CHARGE cost 180,000gns after being bought for 82k as a foal. by WOOTTON BASSETT o/o an unraced PIVOTAL mare who’s produced one winner from one runner. Second dam is a listed winner.

RUST E BOY is by first season sire INNS OF COURT, the first foal out of a mare who won on her second start at 2. He ran ok on debut coming 5th, the form has worked out very well with the 3rd and 4th winning nto.

PHONE TAG is a bay colt by HAVANA GREY o/o a mare who won at 2, her first foal is f*cking useless by TASLEET. This is the mares second foal.

QUICKFIRE is one BGP Capital will be watching very closely. By LAND FORCE is why. He's out of a mare who earned black type in America who has produced two winners both of whom won at 2, although one of the winners was disqualified after having a banned substance in her blood.

Verdict: Probably a maiden to watch. BATTLE CHARGE boasts the best pedigree for a yard in great form but his drifting. Hannon's is supposed to be a rocket and has been found in the market (Hannon cleans up in this race). As we've seen recently, our blood analysis has trumped the whispers for the shorties this week but BAHEER is supposed to be his Richard's Royal Ascot 2yo. He is already gelded though - what's going on there?

If BAHEER is Hannon's Coventry horse then you should side with him but there are whispers Ed Walkers QUICKFIRE by LAND FORCE is good, we hope so and he's our emotional pick.

Risk on

As aforementioned, for obvious reasons, BGP Capital members eyes will be on QUICKFIRE for Ed Walker. It cannot be overstated how well bred LAND FORCE is. A E350k foal, he went on to go oh so close in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot and then proved his quality later that year by winning the Goodwood's Richmond Stakes. He looks the image of his dad NO NAY NEVER and has absolutely passed that stamp on to his progeny - you couldn't miss them at the sales.

MAGICAL, ROHODODENDRON, Derby fave AUGUSTE RODIN, VERGLAS and Melbourne Cup winner CROSS COUNTER are all in his immediate family - the page is littered with Group success. The blood is strong in LAND FORCE and BGP Capital are praying it comes through in their lad too.

As we have done for the first two days of the York meeting, we will play half bets on the previews above as well as:

14.25 SOUNDS OF HEAVEN

A little bearish she'd drifting but you could drool over her pedigree. She is a beautiful filly bought for 650k and her sister last year was sold for 1.5 milli! She's by KINGMAN (same sire as KATHAB) and was a real eye catcher on her first start. She then pissed up next time out besting BOOGIE WOOGIE who has since been touched off by SAVETHELASTDANCE. The big danger in this is the Godolphin filly who admittedly looks nice and there are some unexposed types here too but 16's is a ridiculous price. She will improve on what she has done, her mother is a sister to Gr 1 winners HYDRANGEA, HERMOSA and THE UNITED STATES (the horse not the country). Half bet ew at 16's.

16.10 KATHAB

Form ties with PASSENGER lto. He faces Balding's NEW BUSINESS again who probably wasn't ready first time out but if you watch the replay back, KATHAB beat him easily and you'd have to stretch your imagination if you were to suggest that form could be turned around. SHaggas string in good order. Half win bet on this KINGMAN gelding at 7/4.

17.50 RAVEN'S APPLAUSE 

To HQ for this one. He's more unexposed than most in this, we think there is a bit more to come from this lad who's got 90 horses dam side and cost 50k. He's a small bet ew at 6's.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens.

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: