Gm, Equinauts

For most, this is Yorkshire Oaks day. For us, it’ll always be Lowther day:

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

🔥LATE RUNNER

It wasn’t the result many expected but the Juddmonte produced a finish worthy of its billing as ITEM landed a dramatic late victory at York.

She booted ALMAQAM out the way late when being brought out to see day light after appearing to have been caught in a pocket turning for home.

The race wasn’t as messy for OMBUDSMAN as X would have you believe, he was just beaten on the day (ground). CONSTITUTION RIVER either didn’t show up or blew up. Or he’s not that good.

The victory for Balding’s lad was particularly remarkable given that ITEM had been in serious doubt only 48 hours before, a blood blister causing foot trouble. Fortunately, it popped and the FRANKEL colt was relieved allowing Andrew Balding to get him to York on the morning of the race.

It added another big win cementing an outstanding summer for Balding and Juddmonte(which hasn’t finished yet). They’ve bagged the King George, Falmouth Stakes and Prix Rothschild together.

ITEM looks good and an exciting one to follow, but we’d like to see him back it up on a quicker surface.

💰 PLAY THE TOTE

The World Pool operates through the Tote and you can access it’s deep liquidity here:

🏆YORK DAY 2🏆

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

13.50 6F GROUP 2 LOWTHER STAKES

This was our race last year. This year looks a bloody good renewal.

We backed ROYAL FIXATION on the basis that she should have beaten the best filly Burke has ever trained (he said that) in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, and that was the form to beat.

LIBERTANGO heads the market here and she too raced in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, placing second. If SENORITA BONITA is a Group 1 filly, then this could be the form line to follow. She comes from stall 15 which, as we saw yesterday, is a bit shit, especially given she’s a hold-up horse. She might have too many in front of her at the business end of things. Billy needs to be on his A game.

STAR OF STATE has been supplemented for this, and that’s a sign of intent from the trainer we championed in the newsletter awards for best trainer at both Cheltenham and… Royal Ascot? Can’t remember. He defo got two though.

LIVENKA beat STAR OF STATE when the latter was having her first run. We feel the form can be reversed, especially we the going change.

WILD BLOSSOM is not sure to stay this 6f in the mud. All year they’ve said she’s very quick, more a Queen Mary horse than Albany (6 over 5f), so this is a complete test for her. However much we think she is smart, she won’t carry our money on the basis they might drop her back in trip after this. If she does get the trip, then the field are in trouble.

Balding is on fire right now and MOONRISE looked good at Ascot last time out so that all bodes well. It was her third run and we wonder how much improvement she has to come until she has a winter off. We think she’ll be a top handicapper and that’s it.

Geoff Oldroyd had a good winner yesterday in the first. He can train. IN THE BLACK was a bet for us on debut.

She might just be the most expensive horse he’s ever trained. She’s a 320k daughter of HAVANA GREY out of a rocket factory mare. Green as shit on debut, she should come on for her debut but we’re on sure about the ground for her.

RUBY MOON is another we bet on debut. It’s like we know something about 2yo’s.

Okay, we knew, but we liked her pedigree anyway. This filly is the homebred of one of the Coolmore mafia. One of the Sandy Lane boys. Fahey trained a relation to this girl, MIDNIGHT MILE, who won the Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7f. Everything in her deep Coolmore pedigree suggests she will enjoy the slop (and want further in time). Expected to have improved from her last run.

SHIMMERING SUN has a big race in her, and this step up in trip looks sure to suit. Closely related to SHOULDVEBEENARING.

CROWNBREAKER broke her maiden in France. We have wondered if MINZAAL's will be better on soft ground, and all of his progeny this summer have had concrete. We'll see. She really could spring a surprise if that theory proves right. Her pedigree is dynamite.

Of the rest, JOLIVETTE should prefer the cut in the ground, and ANGELS PASSING can keep progressing.

VERDICT: The market doesn’t always get this right; plenty of double-digit prices go in. The top two in the market, LIBERTANGO and STAR OF STATE, look good, albeit the former has a lot of work to do from stall 15. We’re going to take a big swing at the stumps from the boundary here and go for RUBY MOON. She is bred to stay further than 6f, and any cut in the ground should prove right up her street. Her last-time-out form should make her an 8/1 shot, making her a bet purely on the pricing differential. We feel a big run is expected from this girl, repping the yard who won this race exactly 10 years ago.

15.35 1M 4F GROUP 1 YORKSHIRE OAKS

KALPANA one they all have to beat on current form after beating CALANDAGAN in the King George. Her only run on very soft ground came at Longchamp when seventh, so there is a slight question mark if York gets properly testing and we have her pedigree marked as a good ground or better horse.

MINNIE HAUK was our Oaks ante-post last year:

She has the class to win this, and hasn’t seen soft all year! She finished second in l'Arc on very soft ground last year so she clearly needs it. That is an enormous positive for anyone wanting her to reverse the form with KALPANA

JOHANNA WALSH arrives off her impressive Group 1 win over 12f. We do wonder if she is a fast ground horse.

LEGACY LINK ran a good race in the Oaks on soft, so there is some evidence she can cope with cut. It’s fair to say she bumped into a monster in THUNDERING ON.

INIS MOR is proven soft-ground form, having finished second at Longchamp on very soft as a juvenile. She has continued to progress this year and her second to JOHANNA WALSH at the Curragh puts her firmly in the reckoning.

Of the rest, EARTH SHOT won’t mind the ground but needs to improve and

VERDICT: MINNIE HAUK finally gets back on soft ground and looks a proper ew to nothing.

16.10 1M 4F LISTED SIR HENRY CECIL STAKES

A LA PROCHAINE is lightly raced, 3rd in a listed race on her seasonal debut and then pitched in to the Epsom Oaks where she ran creditably to be 4th. Back on a sounder surface today, yard going well she’s the one to beat.

MORROPHORE hasn’t been seen for 215 days. The recent rain wouldn’t have been too welcomed, form is ok and has to give 9lbs to the 3yo’s.

WITHOUT PREJUDICE is EMILY UPJOHN’s half sister by SYARMAN. This is a big ask, especially at this track, on only her second start.

RHAPSODY goes in search of more black type, think she’ll take the step up in trip well as she looked to be running on late at the Curragh. Can be a bit keen at times.

The all conquering Joseph O’Brien brings over VAUNTINGLY who hasn’t been out of the first 3 in 5 runs, including at listed level lto. Improvement likely, nice prospect.

SUMMERSON is very well bred, sires progeny go on quick ground, broodmare sires stock go best on soft ground. Looks an improver but draw not a help today.

MERVEILLEUX LAPIN is another filly rated 90+ on the search for black type, a nice pot and to give the owner a nice day out! Holds good form, pedigree is mix’n’match regards ground but looks ok if it gets soft.

At bigger prices, PRIZELAND has good form in the locker and can improve on the going today and ASHARIBA is a hell of a price for a filly who needs soft going.

VERDICT: A LA PROCHAIN is lightly raced, looks better than listed class and the stable is going well, however, the filly in behind VAUNTINGLY on her last start has since beaten AMELIA EARHEART in a Gr3 so the form has had a nice boost. AE beat ALP at the start of the year. ASHARIBA a fun poke at 50/1.

The above verdict horses aren’t bets, just a guide. If you want to play them, do so with the Tote:

SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ACCESS THE STANDOUT STATS AND DAILY BETS:

For exactly the same price as a pint of Guinness at Cheltenham, become a premium subscriber and gain access to our very best content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • Our famous weekender edition
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Big race previews and best bets
• • Bet competitions