Equinties - York day 1

Gm Equinauts

One of the best meetings of the year, the York Dante Festival.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

A BRILLIANT HARCHIBALD

Yesterday, the racing community sadly learned that HARCHIBALD had passed away at the age of 25.

Many will recognise the quirky character for one moment in particular, and that moment is the 2005 Champion Hurdle:

But he was much more than that. He won four Grade 1s and provided plenty of entertainment on the track, though he was also riddled with ability.

Moments like this allow us to reflect on some of the legends that this sport has had over the years. RIP, HARCHIBALD.

A LOOK AHEAD

Our ‘A Look Ahead’ has previewed 10 horses finding two winners in IBERICO LORD 8/1 and CEMHAAN 12/1 (25/1 sp) as well as places in JIPCOT, RAPPER 40/1 and SAM BROWN.

Time to turn our focus now to the flat.

Any ante-post betting is tough, but on the Flat it is especially difficult due to draw bias and sudden changes of ground. Still, here is our assessment of Newbury’s London Gold Cup and we’re going to guess that Newbury’s going will be good on Saturday as there is minimal rain due over Berkshire.

Worth £51,540 to the winner, Aidan O’Brien’s CHANTILLY has seen the early money as he is 4/1 from 7/1. Connections won the race last year. CHANTILLY beat stablemate THE EUPHRATES twice as a two-year-old which looks like good form as he is rated 102 having placed in a Group 3 since. CHANTILLY made his first run of this season a winning one at Leopardstown and off 95, he is respected here, especially as he is a GALILEO related to many 100+ horses. Upgrade the performance as he’ll be better on faster ground.

KING’S GAMBIT was second to BRACKEN’S LAUGH on his last start as a juvenile which, much like CHANTILLY, looks like strong form due to what he has done as a three-year-old subsequently. He comes from the family of SOPHISTICAT (2002 Coronation Stakes winner), so there is quality in his pedigree. By SAXON WARRIOR, the step up will suit but the ground will need to be fast.

FIGHTER COMMAND has less form in the book than the other two have, though his rating of 84 reflects that. By DUBAWI out of the GALILEO mare BOUND (who won a Listed race on her final start), his blood is rock solid as he comes from the family of SERPENTINE, KING OF THE CASTLE, WEDDING VOW, and BEACON ROCK. That is a family Aidan O’Brien knows well. Lordship Stud bred and own the horse, so it’s the Gosdens who train him, but he could be well-above his mark in the future.

FIGHTER COMMAND also has race fitness on his side, the same as GOODWOOD ODYSSEY and BLACK RUN.

The former won smartly at Sandown in April on ground that’ll probably be similar to what Newbury is expecting this weekend whereas the latter beat SUN GOD – our eye-catcher of the Guineas weekend – earlier in the month.

At the bigger prices, PERSICA was third to NOTABLE SPEECH (the 2000 Guineas winner) at Kempton on his last start.

He shaped nicely that day, travelled well, and saw out the trip. He could be interesting.

Verdict: We quite like the form behind KING’S GAMBIT. Granted, others have the benefit of a run but Harry Charlton can get them ready. 9/2 ew.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

14.15 RACE TO THE EBOR JORVIK HANDICAP

We’ve previewed this race because the winner of the opener at York today gets an automatic entry place in the Ebor Handicap, so there’s a lot to play for here.

MARHABA THE CHAMP likes York and he heads the market but is an uneasy fave. He won at the meeting last year off 90 and then off a mark of 91 at the track in August, though a mark of 96 is just 1lbs below his career-high mark. He’s been gelded since and he won fto last season, so he’s a fair fav.

KLONDIKE was the money horse at the ante-post stage as he came in from 10/1 into 4/1, though he is solid at 9/2 now. He’s had a wind-op since his last run, though William Haggas thinks he “needs to improve” but good lord is he seriously unexposed and how much improvement can the fresh flow of oxygen to his lungs bring? Tat said, stall 13 isn’t kind and he has top weight here!

CRYSTAL DELIGHT had a trainer change ahead of this season which is always embarrassing when the new trainer improves the horse 10lbs. Shows the difference between trainers. Anyway, he bolted up at Epsom and looks a horse on the up now with Eustace.

FLASH BARDOT is the money horse for Jack Channon having won three of his last four including a success over SHAGPYLE, the FRANKEL half to PYLEDRIVER. He travelled all over his opponents at Doncaster lto and quickened away easily. Can he still keep improving?

The next two horses in the market have form that ties in with PRYDWEN, the All-Weather Championships Marathon Final winner.

KIHAVAH beat him in June 2023 when he was rated 93 and PRYDWEN was rated 95 whereas CHILLINGHAM (rated 96 at the time) was a close second to PRYDWEN (rated 94 at the time) in November 2023.

Fast-forward to today and KIHAVAH has a rating of 97 and CHILLINGHAM is rated 96, so there isn’t much between them, but Ed Bethell has reached for the first-time cheekpieces with CHILLINGHAM and any rain will be appreciated… he won’t get it today.

As for the rest, WESTERTON beat MIDDLE EARTH in a maiden at Sandown in June 2023 by four lengths. MIDDLE EARTH won a Listed race on his final start of the season and is now rated 108, so WESTERTON’s rating of 97 (and race fitness) could have him well-in here.

Verdict: We tipped MARHABA THE CHAMP last year and we’re not deserting him today on this ground.

15.15 DUKE OF YORK STAKES

A bloody good race. Very competitive and normally throws up a good one.

AZURE BLUE won it last year with the benefit of a run. She’s only ran in the July Cup fading into 6th so god knows what kind of form she is in.

SWINGALONG likes York, form figures of 11 reads nicely. She was placed in gr1 company last year and now she has turned 4 she’s one to keep on side this year. Karl Burke also saddles SPYCATCHER, but Clifford Lee has picked the filly. Ryan Moore is a handy substitute and he was placed in Gr1 company in Deauville last year. COLD CASE runs for the Burke team. He downed Bradsell at the start of last year but may be best watched today from stall 1.

MONTASSIB won impressively at the start of the year at Doncaster reeling in MARSHMAN. The ground was soft and MARSHMAN didn’t do the form any favours next time out at Newmarket. Questionable form but the Haggas 6yo has been well supported.

MILL STREAM and WASHINGTON HEIGHTS finished 2nd and 1st in the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket at the start of the season, Spycatcher was 3rd. The two have similar form and it’s Mill Stream who could get his own back.

TIBER FLOW for Haggas is actually rated higher than Montassib. Tom Marquand riding. No course form and on a drift. COMMANCHE FALLS had some battles with Tiber Flow last year, finishing behind him at Haydock but in front at Newmarket. Both neither fancied in the market.

Better mention KHAADEM as he won his Group 1 last year at Ascot. Maybe this is ‘just a prep run’. Another year older and his form at York reads 74, never placed.

Nearly forgot SHOULDVEBEENARING. Was 12/1 yesterday morning and drifting like a barge. He’s won at York before and is an admirable sprinter. He had a shocker at Newmarket last time out but is generally quite consistent. He finished his campaign last year placing in Group 1 races, he’s only a 4yo and we love him but can he win?

Verdict: On this ground, the market has this totally wrong. If MILL STREAM and SPYCATCHER get anyway near winning we’ll eat two shoes. Tempting to play 2 here given the prices. SWINGALONG 10/1 looks very progressive and has useful form at York. Burkey says she’s been fit and ready for a while. Small chance on SHOULDVEBEENARING 20/1 who we picked lto but was on the wrong side of the track and never in the race. Hannon yard going well too.

15.45 GROUP 3 MUSIDORA STAKES

FRIENDLY SONG won the Pretty Polly Stakes lto on only her second start, she won gamely making most of the running. That was a big step up in class from her maiden and this is another big task today just 10 days after that effort.

CLASSICAL SONG by Lope De Vega was 4th on her last start in the Gr1 Fillies Mile. Trainer Ralph Beckett has won two Oaks Trials already so he’ll have a good idea of where she stands in the pecking order, and the fact she comes here means she’s well thought of. LA PASIONARIA is his other runner and it looks like he owns a leg in her. She needs to improve a lot from 2 to 3 to be competive today.

MAYFAIR is by Justify and o/o Gr1 Cheveley Park S. winner Clemmie who is a full sister to Churchill. She’s bred in the purple but not bred for the trip. She’s had 3 starts so far in her career and she is yet to win her maiden, Aiden hoping the extra 3 furlongs can squeeze out some talent to win this Group 3.

FRANCOPHONE and SINOLOGY are both owned by Kirsten Rausing and both sired by her Stallion Study of Man who has enjoyed a purple patch with his 3yo’s recently. Francophone comes here off a game win at Southwell lto and Sinology showed the same tenacity to win at Newbury. Both need to improve another half a stone to win this today.

SECRET SATIRE makes up the line up in this bizarre Musidora Stakes this year, she comes here off the back of an ok 3rd in a Novice event. She’s by Advertise which is suss even before you look at the form of her last race!

Verdict: Odd renewal this year, the front two in the market are the only ones who have shown above average form so far in their careers. She bled as a 2yo but preference is for CLASSICAL SONG who has been given plenty of time off the track to get over that mishap, slightly orthodox to come straight here but she looks like she may have a touch of class.

YOUNG BLOOD

16.45 NOVICE STAKES

We found the 10/1 winner last year in MON NA SLIEVE.

AGAINST THE WIN is market leader for Kevin Ryan who has won the last two renewals of this race. By EARTHLIGHT who is our pick for champion first season sire. Ground perfect for his pedigree and his dam side is deep and littered with very fast horses.

SHADOW ARMY reps the Fahey stable who had a good 2yo winner yesterday, meaning the yard are readying them first time up. That said, this chap’s pedigree might have wanted a slightly slower surface. Limited pedigree.

FRANCISCO’S PIECE. Weird name. Won fto on soft ground so carries a pen today which will be tough - most 2yo’s can’t do it unless they’re RA standard.

STATION X. The owners favourite channel? Nice pedigree and probably should be shorter in the market but perhaps price reflection of his unkind draw?

KING OF LIGHT is uneasy in the market. Is that because Burkey gets them ready first time up and he didn’t deliver at Windsor? Limited pedigree and probably won’t achieve the desired performance demanded by his price tag.

ZABEEL ROAD is a soft ground horse and might struggle today.

BENTLEY ROAD is unwanted in the market. By new daddy PINATUBO who was favourite in the Champion First Season Sire market. None of his siblings won a race and his second dam produced stayers. Weird pedigree.

Others price says not today.

Verdict: Kevin Ryan has won this the past 2 years so he must have had this as a plan for his better juvenile. AGAINT THE WIND is by EARTHLIGHT who is tipped to be champion first season sire. He’s by SHAMARDAL and this colts fan is by OASIS DREAM; bred on the same cross as BIG EVS. The dam is a daughter of a champion 2yo and her brother is the lethal quick Gr1 horse ANNAF. More interestingly EARTHLIGHT is out of a NEW APPROACH mare, the same as ROSALLION who’s by BLUE POINT (SHAMARDAL). STATION X the big danger on pedigree but will have to be good to win from the draw.

RISK ON

We haven’t had a bet this week, it’s been tools down after an epic week last week. We pick them up today though for the horses in the Duke Of York Stakes preview and AGAINST THE WIND in the Young Blood preview (small bet as it’s a guess on pedigree) plus:

16.15 ELMONJED

Slight concern about the darw but we know he’s good. He could be absolutely anything this one. By BLUE POINT and out of an OASIS DREAM mare, the same cross as BIG EVS. His dam produced smart sprinters and this lad has the potential to be the best one. Big enough to make your on own ew on the exchange (in case the draw f@cks him) pricing 3.95 and 1.80 to place.

18.22 GALUNGGUNG

At 4/5 either a good single or add to another bet for 1x lev.