Equinties - York day 1

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts

The only positive to take from two seconds yesterday is the fact there was only two horses in the way of another good day. That's how you sell it to the disgruntled chimp.

We're going to pump the TOTE Fantasy today because York is a tough meeting to bag winners at and it's easy to give money away to people who don't need it. 

COMPETITION

We've got merch in the pipe line. Want an EQUINTIES branded cap? We're giving 5 away to the top 5 players in the BGP FANTASY LEAGE.

Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

Pattern plans 

Before we get into our preview of York today, we want to highlight a few plans connections have revealed recently. 

Firstly, it's the Guineas gang and looks like SAKHEER is set to battle against LITTLE BIG BEAR et al again as he will be directed to the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. 

The ZOFFANY colt was seventh in the Newmarket Classic and trainer Roger Varian has revealed that he will “most likely” be seen in the Commonwealth Cup next as he feels like he didn’t see out the final 100 yards. Visually this is true, SKAHEER did stop in the final strides to the line but the Guineas is a furious galop, I'd forgive him for that. His pedigree stinks of getting the mile.

Sticking with the Guineas – Irish, not British – and the Group 1 winner PROUD AND REGAL is set to take in the Classic contest at the Curragh. 

Having finished third in the Leopardstown Derby Trial two weeks ago behind SPREWELL, trainer Donnacha O’Brien is putting the plans of 1m2f+ on hold briefly as he is set to send his GALILEO colt to the Irish 2000 Guineas. 

He said: “There's definitely a chance that he will get 10 furlongs and we could be going back there after the Guineas, but the plan is to go to the Curragh for the Irish Guineas. 

O’Brien also revealed that ALDER, second at Chester in the Dee Stakes, will be aimed for the Epsom Derby. 

Big times for some big players. 

BIG RACE PREVIEW 

15.00 Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes 

A good field of 11 will head under starters orders for the first Group event of the York Dante Festival and it is full of quality as the market is headed by CREATIVE FORCE. 

His most recent success came only four days ago at Haydock having finished third on seasonal reappearance when odds on at Newmarket. Connections have always felt that softer conditions would suit better, as shown with his 2021 Champions Sprint win, so the good ground at York may not be to his suiting but he has won on everything. Here's his Royal Ascot win:

The class act in the field is last year’s winner, HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, having won three Group 1s since her win 12 months ago. 

She is the top horse in the field and acts on good, however, she carries a Group 1 penalty and is 0/3 fto throughout her career. 

The well-backed MARSHMAN is next in the betting for Karl Burke and Nick Bradley having been 8/1 ante-post before his 9/2 current price. 

He was good lto on soft ground but is probably even better on todays surface and receives 11 pounds from HIGHFIELD PRINCESS and nine pounds from CREATIVE FORCE respectively. He is a big player based on that Gimcrack form. 

This is a strong field when you bring in Australian raider THE ASTROLOGIST, EMARAATY ANA, and COMMANCHE FALLS – a race to be excited by. 

Verdict: HIGHFIELD PRINCESS is reportedly working well and fit as a flea for today despite her record first time out. That said, she has to give a lot of weight to the boys today and might just be too tough an ask. MARSHMAN is the safe ew play who's Greenham course and distance form is looking top drawer. His daddy HARRY ANGEL won this race and might be too hard to peg back receiving weight all round from a useful draw.

15.35 Group 3 Musidora Stakes

Classic clues on offer here. 

INFINITE COSMOS is the warm favourite repping that HOT form line.

She was second on debut after missing the break but made amends on her seasonal debut at Newmarket less than a fortnight ago. She was green as grass but would have learnt plenty for the run, presumably coming along in fitness as well. By Sea the Stars and from the immediate family of CRYSTAL OCEAN and HILLSTAR amongst others. S

SEA OF ROSES is a BGP fave. She was a newsletter bet for her maiden win at Donny and we followed her at 16's for her recent trip to France. Balding purrs over this girl.

 She was second to ARREST first time out, and we love him for the Derby so she had good form. Taken to France for a classic trial she bumped into Pensee du Jour who looks a special filly. 

NOVAKAI ran a fine second in the Gr1 Fillies Mile at the backend of last year. That was a very quick time and impressive for a filly who likely wanted further than a mile. She’s by LOPE DE VEGA and out of a NATHANIEL mare that won over middle distances. 

GATHER YE ROSEBUDS and LAMBADA both come here having won their maidens. The former was very impressive at Newbury beating a well respected Amo Racing filly in MAMAN JOON. It’s difficult to know where these two fillies’ talents lie. MIDNIGHT MILE is superbly well bred and although she is by NO NAY NEVER, her dam side will give her every chance to stay 1m2f. Richard Fahey’s filly won the Gr3 Oh So Sharp Stakes before running an unlucky race in the Gr1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. 

Verdict: It's telling that Stoute remains quiet about one and INFINITE COSMOS could be special. She's bred like royalty and given how green she was lto, there could be a lot more to come. She's the win bet and secure her spot in the Oaks.

SEA OF ROSES is the top 3 bet and might even follow Stoutey's home. The rev fc is the stupid lunch money play.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

16.45 York

A stakes race for novice colts and geldings.

KYLIAN by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT and was withdrawn at the yearling sales. He doesn’t come from a great family but looks to have his supports in the early tissue. His dam won a Listed race at 2 and was 4th in a Gr2 at 2. 

MASHADI is by BLUE POINT, we’re getting used to seeing his stock. Made an eye catching debut chasing home a well touted Godolphin horse (also by BP) at Newmarket. Trainer sends only his good ones to HQ so with the experience of a run he has to be feared. Dam produced 2 winners from 2 runners, neither won at 2 but she comes from a good black type family who have won at 2. 

THE CARIBBEAN is by gun 2yo sire NO NAY NEVER out of a mare who ran a total of 9 times as a 2yo culminating in a Gr3 place. She’s produced SUDIRMAN who was a Gr1 winner at 2 (6f) and Star of India who was a Listed winner at 3. Watch market. 

BRAVE EMPIRE is by Dark Angel, cost a whopping 450,000gns as a yearling. Out of a CABLE BAY mare who was dual Listed placed. Considering the price tag his family lacks depth but is a lovely individual and the owner loves York. 

MON NA SLIEVE is an EXCEED AND EXCEL colt who cost £90,000 as a breeze up. He looks very smart and trainer targets the meeting with his nice ones. Dam was 4th in a Gr2 in Meydan and is a full sister to dual Gr2 placed 2yo Artigiano. From the family of STATE OF REST.

Verdict: Taking a chance on MON NA SLIEVE at 10's. He looked very professional in his breeze. He’s a big, strong colt who looks the part. He's the ew play for a trainer who banged in 2yo winner ROOM SERVICE yesterday against the money horse for Burke.

Risk on

Small plays suggested on the above previews with a bigger stake on today's NAP INFINITE COSMOS (who most Fantasy players were dm'd to have a poke at 20's for the Oaks).

16.10 CARAGIO

The team behind BGP Capital stood next to Roger Teal when this lad won at Leicester. He's had a pipe opener and Teal is not just starting to hit form having landed a nice gamble yesterday.  Half bet at 6's ew. 

MARSHMAN tp, INFINITE COSMOS w, CARAGIO tp, MON NA SLIEVE tp levered with KING OF THE LAKE pays 55's. Small 5 fold.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: