Equinties - yard deconstructed

Gm Equinauts

All weather, jumps and Meydan…today has got everything for a perfect Friday.

Do remember, you don’t need to back every horse you see - enjoy the horses running without risk on and you’ll make the sport pay long term.

Now, let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

STABLE DECONSTRUCTED

Andy and Gemma Brown of Caldwell Construction have had plenty of good horses in their red and white silks over the last few years, notably JAZZY MATTY – their first Cheltenham Festival winner – as well as more recent promising sorts such as CALDWELL POTTER, who won the recent Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle, the full brother to their late Grade 1 winning MIGHTY POTTER.

‘Late’ sadly being the operative word here; MIGHTY POTTER died from a fall last April while D B COOPER went wrong at Fairyhouse on Wednesday and SMOOTH PLAYER died not long after Christmas.

The Caldwell’s have had the worst time of it. That’s not sport, that’s not fun, it’s simply heavy and heart breaking losses to them.

As such, they are selling all 29 horses at their Tattersalls Ireland dispersal sale on February 6th. 

But despite Andy’s reassurance that they have parted ways amicably with Gordon, apparently this isn’t quite true.

Gordon Elliott has “probably 18 or 20 of the horses in training at the moment” and he was keen to stress that “there has been absolutely no falling out” as he “only got the phone call this [Wednesday] morning”. 

Well, we’ve heard there has indeed been a falling out between the Caldwell’s and Gordon. Now, obviously this might just be the rumour mill doing its thing but people are saying the Caldwell’s had been at odds with Gordon over running their horses in unsuitably heavy going and with recent sad events occurring, enough was enough. Now they have decided to part ways with the sport entirely, heart broken.

With the Caldwell’s involvement in the sport seemingly done, this puts Gordon Elliott in a tough position where he’s going to have to think fast about how he’s going to keep some of his horses.

He can’t rely on Gigginstown or any of his main owners to purchase them all, so might he call on the likes of super owner JP McManus for a deal?

If he can’t find a solution quickly, there is a very real possibility that CALDWELL POTTER could be under the hands of someone else by the time March rolls around.

If the horses do move to different yards, we wouldn’t be too quick to bet them in March. Moving yards is a big change of routine for a horse (who NEED routine) and they might take time to adjust. Think ENVOI ALLEN moving from Cullentra to de Bromhead’s, it took a long time for him to get back to his best. Just a thought…

ALLA-OH NO 

Everyone on Racing X may have landed a winner yesterday… 

But it seems like every loyal ante-post Cheltenham bettor’s also had a huge loss yesterday. 

That’s right, ALLAHO, the two-time Ryanair Chase winner, has suffered a strained hock after his Thurles success and will likely be out for the season. 

Whether you took a chance on him at a price or not, this is why ante-post betting is a lottery.

Despite the fact that ante-post prices are tight at the best of times, top horses have just as much chance as regular horses for getting injured. Over-reach at one fence and strain something? Injured. Dive randomly off to one side because a big scary rabbit ran from a hedge and tweak a ligament? Injured. Step on a stone a week before the race? Ouch.

Remember the year that POLITOLOGUE won the Champion Chase in 2020? It was because ALTIOR was ruled out the day before and CHACUN POUR SOI stood on a stone (we think) the morning of and was ruled out. Imagine if you had a bet on ALTIOR in an acca with some other horses that had already obliged because you thought he was a ‘cert’ to win the Champion Chase three years in a row. You would have been sick!

That’s why acca’s are for show, singles for a pro.

Racehorses are big brutes but they’re also fragile athletes. We like to see horses go down to the start safe and sound with a level head before we like to bet them. More! This is all before we get stuck into how bad ante-post prices are, but you all know that anyway.

Look, ante-post’s are enjoyable for some and not for others. That’s fair enough, we all like different things, but guys, there are easier ways to make money while enjoying the sport!

Anyway, back to the Ryanair. BANBRIDGE is the new fav at 3/1, while ENVOI ALLEN is 9/2 to repeat last year’s heroics and STAGE STAR is 5/1. If you haven’t already had a Ryanair bet, then it’s a lot less attractive to get stuck in now. ENVOI ALLEN was 8/1 yesterday, which was a fair price, but 9/2 is short enough. 

HUNTING(DON) FOR CLUES

We said in yesterday’s newsletter that a few people may be clinging onto hope that BRIDES HILL is a potential Mares’ Chase winner, and after her performance over at Huntingdon, their dream is still alive.

The 10/11 favourite benefitted from the departures of both PINK LEGEND and CAROLE’S PASS at the 11th fence, though she still showed her ability and was cut into 16/1 for the penultimate race of the Cheltenham Festival. 

As for the other clue on offer at Huntingdon yesterday, anyone possessed with the gift of sight could see a horse in green and gold saunter into fourth as CHANTRY HOUSE got himself qualified for the Pertemps Final off a mark of 145 (which could be less if the handicapper knocks a few pounds off) and will likely be heading there with a competitive chance based on old form.

MEYDAN FRIDAY

As we have done the last couple of weeks, we’ve taken a quick glance at some of the stars in the desert today.

14.40. We stupidly missed out on MYSTERIOUS NIGHT last time out at Meydan when he won well. It’ll take a good one to beat him this time as well as he goes in search of Appleby’s 8th win in this Gr2.

MARBAAN and Marquand could cause an upset but the one horse more capable of ruining the Godolphin party, is one owned by Sheikh Mohammed’s niece, Sheikha Hissa of the Shadwell team. After all, he was in front of him at the end of last year at Meydan. He’s also had a more relaxing 35 days off whereas MYSTERIOUS NIGHT only ran last Friday.

Verdict: DANYAH 

15.50. 5 furlongs sprints aren’t really a betting game, get checked once and you’re out but let’s try find the winner. 

LOGO HUNTER at 18/1 is possibly a little forgotten about. He was third in this last year, god knows what he’s been doing since but he has been based in Meydan. One just wonders if they have targeted a race like this? 

17.00. The big one of the evening, the Group 1 Jebel Hatta. bin Suroor will be hoping MAWJ can turn his stable form around, currently 0-12. The 1000 Guineas winner is joint highest rated in this field and gets a handy fillies allowance.

SPIRIT DANCER is rated alongside MAWJ at the top, he won the Bahrain Trophy for Sir Alex. MEASURED TIME is the market favourite with Buick on board, (yawn), the son of FRANKEL (bigger yawn), is improving rapidly having been beaten in a Listed race at Kempton last November then winning a Gr2 at Meydan last December.

OTTOMAN FLEET is the eachway play, Buick picked him 3 times last year but has jumped ship, capable of winning and is quite consistent. SAN DONATO beat MARBAAN lto, and the old dog goes up in class today, perhaps needs another monster run.

Verdict: Annoyingly difficult to get away from Buick picking MEASURED TIME (shop around for prices if you’re backing) but OTTOMAN FLEET is the might be the place bet.

18.10. GALLERIST looks an improver and should be considered. Bred in France and sold for €40k as a yearling. Barzalona on board, he’ll be hoping to get one over on Buick. Buick is steering SISKANY who is the likely winner. Buick/Appleby yay! (That was sarcasm). 

Verdict: We don’t think there’ll be dirtier ew play today than GALLERIST at 5’s. 

RISK ON

12.52 CERVETTO

Wouldn’t normally get involved in a horse which has seen it’s sales price tumble from 100k to, 20k , to 14k (morning glory horse?) but this is a bad, bad race and the market might have found the right fave here. Clever ride lto to finish 4th over a trip too short (he could have won), the step up should see him ‘improve’. This could be a good bet at 6/4 or 2.8 on the exchange.

13.15 ALL AUTHORIZED

On pedigree he could be the best in this race in the heavy going. Small self made ew at 10’s on the exchange.

For the more advanced exchange players you could lay the Hendo hot pot at 1.4 This horse is bred to need good ground and on what he has done so far, is not too far ahead of Gary Moore’s horses to warrant the price. We even have KINGSOFTHESWINGERZ at 80/1(!) marked as in with a chance on pedigree, in this ground. So, at 1.4 the fave could be a speccy lay and in layman’s terms, this means you’re risking £4 for a £10 profit, £14 returned. At the prices the market thinks he bolts up but I’m happy to take the fave backers on.

13.27 LAVENDER HILL MOB

Short at 4/5 so use to lever another single. A quick scan across the Lingfield card see’s many fave’s with strong chances actually, could be a day for punters!

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • The weekender edition (Mon-Fri still free)
• • The weekends best bets
• • That warm fuzzy feeling inside knowing the intern gets fed
• • Only £1 a week!