Equinties - Willie's dominance

Gm Equinauts

Sport is all about competition. The Six Nations, the World Cup, Wimbledon, the Olympics…these international tier systems demand massive, global audiences where people want to see the best of the best take each other on.

The cream rises to the top. Think Brazilian football, New Zealand Rugby, the New England Patriots in the NFL, Australian Cricket. Each sides history littered with hard fought battles, sometimes preceding the occasional upset, but often dominance, always led by a talisman; a Carter or McCaw; a Brady; a Smith or Cummins.

Irish racing’s talisman are Willie Mullins and Aidan O’Brien. Aidan O’Brien has won 26 Irish Champion Trainers Titles and Willie has notched up 17 and likely a 18th at the end of this season. 

But there is something very different between Willie Mullins’ dominance of National Hunt Racing and say, New Zealand’s influence in rugby for the last twenty years. 

New Zealand will always be feared but they can be beat.

Willie Mullins can’t be beat. He is simply working to a totally different level of superiority. On a different planet. No one close. 

Firstly, it is worth mentioning that one thing is reassuring and that is the horses in his care are 100% healthy and looked after to the highest of standards (which can’t be said for some clowns in the sport). 

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is the big boy in the team, Willie’s own talisman, but the level of depth behind him is staggering. 

Obviously it’s not Willie’s fault as such. Harold Kirk, his long term agent and friend is ridiculously good at sourcing young stock, especially from France. And let’s face it, the French are like the Pacific Nations in Rugby when producing superior athletes.

Nevertheless, winning Grade 1s for fun and not just with the first string, but with the B, C and D team is absurd.  

Having a dominant team isn’t bad, it’s always going to happen, but having someone so clearly head and shoulders (and some) above the rest is mind blowing. Willie is millions of pounds clear of his nearest rivals as if there is only one man in Ireland can train a horse. 

It’s crazy how this has happened in Ireland where it’s nation of patriots are horse people through and through. It’s actually a little sad to see. But what’s the answer? 

Limited string sizes? A cap on annual sales spend? Who knows, we don’t have the answers but we just thank the lord the same thing doesn’t happen in the UK otherwise we’d have nothing to watch. 

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

DITCHEAT MOURNS

Sad news hit the racing world this week and continued to torment the already stricken Paul Nicholls yard.

Not long after Ditcheat lost their beloved HERMES ALLEN, a key member of their team sadly passed away in a freak Point to Point accident. Not much more needs to be said on the matter as we respect the privacy for all those close to Kegan Kirby.

Thoughts and prayers with everyone at Ditcheat.

DRF BEST PERFORMANCES 

Unlike most weekends, we are going to highlight our three favourite performances with a view to the future as we could be here for a long time going through the action. These won’t be everyone’s choice, but just our favourite. After that, our eyecatchers section will be there as well.

First up, a mention to a notable exclusion in GALOPIN DES CHAMPS who put on a display FASTORSLOW. These two put on a good show but we all knew where there were at before hand with the forecast perhaps being the banker of the meeting. 

3) JEROBOAM MACHIN – Grade 2 Future Stars Bumper (Saturday) 

We know it’s easy to get carried away with bumper performances, but it was hard not to be impressed by JEROBOAM MACHIN in the finale on Saturday. He beat a nice one in D B COOPER on debut and was chucked into this Grade 2 having worked with the late SLATE LANE, who could have been a very nice stayer before suffering an injury, at home. 

He raced prominently throughout, so he hasn’t exactly benefitted from a pace collapse, and he beat a nice field of bumper horses. YOU OUGHTA KNOW was backed late and put 11 lengths between himself and CROKE PARK on debut, REDEMPTION DAY gave FACILE VEGA a race at Punchestown a few years ago, and A DREAM TO SHARE is last year’s Champion Bumper winner (though he will probably come on for it). That’s good form. 

This 5yo could well be sporting new silks but they’ll have to wait for next year as news broke this morning he has been ruled out for the rest of the season!

2) BALLYBURN – Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle

Undoubtedly the bet of the DRF. 

If there’s one horse who has properly stamped their dominance on the novice hurdle scene this year, BALLYBURN has probably done so with his performance on the Sunday of the DRF.

 For a horse who has a staying pedigree – he is a full brother to the 2016 Paddy Power Chase winner NOBLE ENDEAVOR – he has a wicked turn of foot even on the flat as he put a good distance between himself and SLADE STEEL after the omitted last hurdle. 

SLADE STEEL, a Grade 2 winner, was ahead of KING OF KINGSFIELD, a Grade 2 placed horse who was a five-length second to SLADE STEEL in a maiden hurdle, suggesting the form is as expected. He travelled to the front at the second-last – a good three furlongs from home – and didn’t even need a reminder from Paul Townend to do what he did.

A proper performance from a proper horse.

1) STATE MAN – Grade 1 Irish Champion Hurdle

Oh STATE MAN, you beautiful, brilliant chestnut. We do feel sorry for you!

Kicking two Ballymore winners and a proper mare in ECHOES IN RAIN out of the way with relative ease is an incredible performance. Seriously good performance.

Now, the big talk post-race was whether he could beat CONSTITUTION HILL. Willie Mullins will want to win that race more than any other contest at the Festival this year and CONSTITUTION HILL has had a marginally interrupted prep with his bad scope in January. If Mullins runs a few horses in there to upset CONSTITUTION HILL, could STATE MAN beat him? 

Probably not but he needs to race him and keep trying to make this years Champion Hurdle a proper contest to savour. 

EYECATCHERS OF THE WEEK

We’ve kept this DRF exclusive this weekend as there are plenty of horses to highlight. 

MAJBOROUGH – Spring Juvenile Hurdle

Willie Mullins may have won the race with KARGESE, but he was very sweet in talking about MARJBOROUGH in the immediate aftermath.

He isn’t the typical type for a Triumph, and he will be better over fences, but he is likely to go there with connections hopeful.

PANDA BOY – 3m Handicap Hurdle

Taking into consideration his season so far and Martin Brassil’s liking towards Cheltenham runners with good chances, PANDA BOY ran a great race over hurdles on Saturday in preparation for something like an Ultima or Kim Muir in March.

He was second to an unexposed MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, a potential Grand National type, in the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas and is still unexposed in handicap company off 143. That will have him fit for Cheltenham and he could be one to keep onside.

RISK BELLE – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle 

Once Mark Walsh knew he was beat, RISK BELLE wasn’t given a hard time in the opening race on Sunday. She was well-backed into favouritism before the off and although she has been beaten 18 lengths, that means the handicapper has no choice but to drop her in the weights. This means she could be a potential for a Cheltenham handicap. 136 is her current mark, so with a few pounds off from the handicapper and a few pounds added on as a British tax, she could feasibly run off that exact mark come March.

SLADE STEEL – Novice Hurdle 

We liked BALLYBURN’s performance so much that SLADE STEEL had to get a mention as a potential horse for the Baring Bingham. He did what he could to stick with BALLYBURN after the omitted last and was reasonably good to put seven lengths between himself and KING OF KINGSFIELD.

A step up in trip looks natural to the way he races and he is now a leading player in the Baring Bingham. 

CALDWELL BREAKS RECORDS

And finally, the Andy and Gemma Brown dispersal sale took place at Tattersalls Ireland yesterday with all of their horses selling for over five million euros combined.

The horse who broke the records at the top of the pile was CALDWELL POTTER as he went to the four-man partnership of John Hales, Sir Alex Ferguson, Ged Mason, and Peter Done for €740,000. 

 Of course, Racing X had their say on this.

Look, here’s the thing with these horses. Barring another big dispersal, proven Graded horses like this don’t come up for sale in the National Hunt game very often. People take chances on Irish PtP winners in the hope that they can turn into good horses. That’s why they go for £400k – like CROKE PARK – and sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t.

But with a proven Graded horse, and proven Grade 1 winner in CALDWELL POTTER, you know what you’re buying.

Yes, they don’t have the residual value of being a stallion or broodmare, if any, but for owners like Ferguson, Hales, Done, and Mason, it’s about spending money on things they want with the remainder of their lives. They have been there. They have done it. With all the money in the world. And now, they want to buy horses for the future to have in upcoming (touch wood) top-class racing. 

People may overspend on horses (or use them for clever tax avoidance schemes) but in this isolated case of CALDWELL POTTER, he has a fantastic pedigree on his dam’s side with MIGHTY POTTER, FRENCH DYNAMITE, INDIANA JONES, and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (the dam, MATNIE, is arguably the hottest property in the National Hunt breeding game currently).

Yes, maybe they did overspend. But who wants to put a value on fun and lifelong memories!?

 He was a 200k purchase prior to his first run under rules, has won three races – one of which was a Grade 1 which has seen the form franked in another Grade 1 – and now he has increased in price by nearly four times. That sounds about right. It’s about supply (in this case, horses of this quality coming up for public sale rarely happens in the jumps world) and demand. Gordon Elliott wanted him back thanks to the help of Gigginstown, but they couldn’t go the distance. That’s racing.

YOUNG BLOOD

MARKET RASEN BUMPER

A nice bumper for the girls offering up that all important black type. Weirdly not at the end of the card!

Heading the market is PARK PRINCESS who was a big gamble at Newbury we were on last time. She’s well bred and looked pretty good lto and deserved fave. 

Next in market is Kings AVAKATE who already has black type winning a Listed affair last time out very easily. She looked good too. By new sire AFFINSEA who has had a bright start she’s one to keep on side. 

Pauling has had a brilliant time in bumpers recently, his last two winners given in this newsletter. Unraced,

Word is she won’t be out the top 3. Does the pedigree match the word? Not really, DIAMOND BOY is a brilliant jumps sire but has a low strike rate in bumpers - maybe they need time? Dam side note positive. 

The field are good but will struggle against the top two in PARK PRINCESS and AVAKATE. 

Verdict: This race should really be fought out between the top two with preference for Kings AVAKATE. We’ll side with the whispers for Pauling’s DIVA LUNA and add a top 3 finished at 8/11 to another bet. His yard can do no wrong right now.

RISK ON

A winning day Saturday with 2 from 4 singles going in, we think we have found one or two winners today.

Today’s bets will be posted to X @equinties.

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