Equinties - the weekender

Gm Equinauts 

The last two weeks have been up and mainly down punting wise, but that’s a part of it and you just have to deal with it. It’ll turn again, it normally does… in a big way.

We have a big day of racing today, nothing like last week's 'Super Sunday’, but still some quality on show and we’ve previewed the ‘big’ races for you.

Let’s dive in.

Headline Roundup

AYR 

Gr3 Firth Of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes 

We begin our preview with a six-furlong contest for the two-year-old fillies and Kevin Ryan’s QUEEN ME currently tops the market as a warm 6/4 favourite.  

This DUBAWI filly won on her debut at Haydock in July and went on to run a cracker on better ground at York in the Gr2 Lowther (the race DRAMATISED failed to win). 

She raced a little bit behind the bridle this day but still managed to get going late on to only just miss out on winning – she should come on for that run. 

Looking to spoil Ryan’s party is BONNY ANGEL for the Clive Cox team, a HARRY ANGEL filly who has already raced five times this season.  

Of those five runs, her last two have been winning ones – she lost her maiden tag at Leicester last month when just doing enough to beat LILY IN THE JUNGLE, giving weight away, and then bolted up nine days ago where she looked a much-improved horse. 

By a CAMACHO mare, she was also third to TRILLIUM, a now two-time Group winner, on her second career start at Newbury – she looked good that day and she gets to test how strong that TRILLIUM form is.  

Further down the field, plenty of these 2yo’s already look exposed, though Richard Fahey, the 2021 winner with UMM KULTHUM, sends the twice-raced MARINE WAVE to the contest off the back of a victory at Southwell in a novice event less than three weeks ago.  

She was green as grass on debut but massively caught the eye when fifth to SWINGALONG, the Gr2 Lowther winner at York, as she stayed on at the finish – two other horses from that race have gone on to win since (BAREFOOT ANGEL in second and LUMACHO in ninth) so she could be one to outrun her odds at 20/1.  

Our view: I think QUEEN ME is near enough leverage for any bet.

Ayr Gold Cup 

Fans of the newsletter may have noticed that we don’t usually preview or get involved with big handicaps (there are easier ways to make money), and the Ayr Gold Cup is no exception. 

25 runners are set to go to post (assuming all are okay today) and the market is currently 5/1 the field – however, a few interesting ones are lurking about in this year’s renewal that we wanted to mention.  

The first is last year’s winner BIELSA for the duo of Kevin’s – Scott and Ryan.  

This seven-year-old won doing handstands 12 months ago off a one-pound lower mark – yes, he hasn’t been in the same form coming into today’s race as he was last year, but this has surely always been the target for Ryan’s INVINCIBLE SPIRIT gelding.  

He was drawn widest of all last year and still bolted up – out of stall 17 today, in the knowledge that we saw the finish of yesterday’s Bronze Cup feature mostly high-drawn horses, can only be a positive.  

The Hambleton-based trainer has won this race five times in 14 years (now that’s a stat), so he knows how to prepare one for the £150,000 contest.  

A horse who was behind him in fourth last year was MOTAGALLY – under new connections at Scott Dixon’s yard, he looks well-handicapped.  

Previously rated 103 in his prime, this son of SWISS SPIRIT is down to a mark of 94, four pounds lower than what he ran off 12 months ago and two pounds below his last winning mark – he ran a stormer in the Portland at Doncaster six days ago on ground that was less than ideal and the favoured blinkers remain on, making him a real danger at 12/1.  

Connor Beasley has already ridden five winners at the three-day Ayr meeting this week – he gets the leg up on top-weight COMMANCHE FALLS, whereas Tom Eaves, a winner in this race six years ago with BRANDO, rides BERGERAC, a four-year-old carrying a five-pound penalty.  

 Our view: Couldn’t give a flying fuck tbh.

NEWBURY 

Gr3 Legacy Cup Stakes  

The bulk of this weekend’s Group action comes from Newbury, and we begin with the former Arc Trial, the Group 3 Legacy Cup Stakes over 1m3f.  

Godolphin’s only victory in this race came in 2004 with SIGHTS OF GOLD for Frankie Dettori and Saeed bin Suroor – the mega owners send three sons of Dubawi to the race this year and they occupy the top three places in the market.  

The one with potentially the most to prove is the current second favourite in the market, DUBAI FUTURE, for the previously mentioned bin Suroor. 

This six-year-old won the Listed Wolferton Stakes impressively to beat the £500k CADILLAC, REGAL REALITY, and HARROVIAN – ARISTIA, the subsequent Gr1 Prix Jean Romanet winner, finished ninth that day so she has franked the form.  

If he continues to progress from that run, now over a furlong further, he has a great chance to hand Martin Harley his first Group success of the year.  

Of the non-Godolphin runners, SOLID STONE returns to the race that he won last year for Sir Michael Stoute and Richard Kingscote. The form of his success 12 months ago has worked out okay – AL AASY and ILARAAB have both picked up victories since – and the drop back in trip should suit him better than his failed attempts at 1m4f recently. 

STAY ALERT is one of two mares in the lineup today and Hughie Morrison’s three-year-old is in good form this season – she was second to NASHWA at this course in May and beat GOLDEN LYRA back at the track 26 days later.  

She travelled supremely well when fifth in the Gr2 Lancashire Oaks, won by the very good FREE WIND, at Haydock in July but looked to potentially not stay the full 1m4f – a furlong less today may get the best out of her, especially off the lowest weight in the race due to her fillies and three-year-old allowances.  

Our view: The 3yo’s are getting a good deal of weight here but they still struggle to win - only 2 in last 10 have won. One of the 3yo’s to win was trained by Shaggas, he sends LYSANDER today. He’s come up short in similar events but lightly raced still. Godolphin have their hands all over this race with 3 runners, first, second and third favourite in the market. SISKANY and DUBAI FUTURE have battled it out before in the desert and there's no reason to suggest DUBAI FUTURE will reverse that form with SISKANY. SISKANY has been off since Feb but with Appleby’s lot, that really doesn’t matter. SISKANY should win and I would say DUBAI FUTURE either follows home for the fc or at least looks a good place bet in this at evens.

Gr3 World Trophy Stakes  

35 minutes later, Newbury hosts a five-furlong event for those sprinters who just aren’t at that top level now – it’s a real mix of experienced veterans and promising improvers. 

Talking of experienced, Clive Cox’s TIS MARVELLOUS, fresh from victory in the Beverley Bullet after a 74-day break, is one of the market favourites at 4/1.  He fought back well to win three weeks ago (we still don’t know how ARECIBO didn’t win) and he was third in this race last year – promising form lines with KHAADEM, KING’S LYNN, and MINZAAL from his last five runs show why he is towards the top of the market. 

He is not the standout favourite though, that spot is reserved by an up-and-coming three-year-old MANACCAN for John Ryan and Pat Dobbs.  

By EXCEED AND EXCEL out of SHYRL, second in the Gr2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2008, this well-bred colt has been a very consistent performer all year and landed the spoils in the Listed Scarbrough Stakes at Doncaster last week. 

After the race, trainer Ryan said: “It’s nice to get a good one and when you get a good one you want to be able to hold onto them – hopefully, we can go on to bigger things with this horse.” The horse returns to Newbury for the first time since his good sixth on the 2021 Mill Reef.

Following the incredible success of COLTRANE last week in the Doncaster Cup, another BGP Grad is looking to triumph in Group company this weekend as CHIL CHIL, fifth in the recent Gr1 Nunthorpe behind MINZAAL, reappears for Andrew Balding. 

This six-year-old mare ran close behind GALE FORCE MAYA two starts ago – the Michael Dodds mare has since won twice on the bounce, most recently at Ayr in a Listed event yesterday, franking the form of the race.  

Our view: Winners in this race tend to come from the top of the market. Fave, MANACAN looks an improver and worthy fave but 3yo’s don’t really have the best record in this race. TIS MARV for Cox (who’s in good form) is an old hag at this and an admirable horse but I’d probably prefer his other runner DILIGENT HARRY who is still unexposed. We’re siding with CHIL CHIL though. As you know, she is a BGP grad, and we know she can be very good. She just needs to turn up today.

Gr2 Mill Reef Stakes 

The final Group race at Newbury comes in the 2:50, a contest with the two-year-olds on display again.  

If you remember correctly, we mentioned SAKHEER in last week’s newsletter when talking about MAGICAL SUNSET for the Scientific £300k 2-Y-O Stakes, a race he finished sixth in – well, Roger Varian’s ZOFFANY colt is back on the track after hosing up at Haydock 16 days ago. 

David Egan takes the ride again and he looks like the one to beat at the top of the market.  

Vying for favouritism is Richard Hannon’s SHOULDVEBEENARING, a gambled winner at York – he’s looking to make it four in a row for Middleham Park Racing.  

This HAVANA GREY colt won from an impossible position in that 270k contest two starts ago and followed it up at Ripon eleven days later to confirm that York victory wasn’t a fluke – by a promising sire out of an EQUIANO mare, Hannon’s apparent first-string has a great chance to continue the winning streak.  

The Wiltshire-based trainer is also represented by WALLOP, a HARRY ANGEL colt who was third to NOBLE STYLE, the longtime ante-post favourite for the Gr1 Middle Park Stakes before Charlie Appleby ruled him out of the race, on debut at Newmarket. (Now your 20/1 MARSHMAN ante post bet is fave).

NOBLE STYLE recently won the Gimcrack at York and even MILL STREAM, second that day, ran a belter in the Gr3 Acomb Stakes before finding the extra distance too far on the day – that looks to be good form on paper, can WALLOP upset the party at a juicy price? 

Our view: SAKHEER comes with a big rep and bolted up lto, although that form does look questionable. HARRY ANGEL won this race in 2016 and he sired WALLOP who, really, could be anything. That said Dobbs seems to have picked stable mate SHOULDVEBEENARING. Cox trained HARRY ANGEL, he targets the race having won it last year with WINGS OF WAR so you cant imagine HEROISM will be far away. This is a tough race and one I wouldn’t like to get involved in but if I had to hang my hat on something, it would be either Hannon or Cox to take on Varian.

Risk on

15.05 QUEEN ME

Looks like leverage to me.

15.16 EQUIANO SPRINGS

I’ve collected thousands of this horse at Newmarket. Owners target the town (either course) and he looks set up for it again today. BGP 1 took 8’s last night, 4’s available for a half win bet.

16.00 CARAGIO

First time out so don’t go mad but he’s good. Kirby onboard, he broke him so knows him well. Should run a big race.

A couple of selections overseas. VICTORIA ROAD in the Chantilly 13.33 looks good. Moore over for the one ride and, although it's taken a while, the penny has dropped with this one and recent form has been boosted.

And a couple of chimp feeders for tonight, Appleby runs MYSTERIOUS NIGHT and MODERN GAMES in the 21.22 and 22.35 respectively, over in Woodbine, Canada. Could prove a useful Maple leaf double for those who tend to look at South American volleyball at that time of night.