Equinties - weekender

Gm Equinauts

We saw some great races across the UK yesterday (incuding a lovely gamble landed by Balding's lot) and the action continues today, including a big Group 1, the Vertem Futurity Stakes from Donny.

Let’s dive in.

Headline Roundup

13.50 Gr3 Horris Hill

A Gr3 for 2yo’s over 7f that is generally quite open. Not many big priced winners have won this in the past but equally neither have the favourites.

STRIKING STAR and LORD OF BISCAY are both once raced and head the market, the former trained by Appleby who won on soft ground at Sandown (see below) and has the champ jock in the plate.

The latter trained by Varian is BAYSIDE BOY’s brother and won a good ground maiden at Yarmouth.

CARAGIO, PROMOTER and ANCESTRAL LAND are all well bred and unexposed. AL has some form on soft ground having won at Chepstow on easy going lto. OVIEDO is on a revival mission after flopping in Ireland, but he had a wide draw that day and on previous form where he was 3rd in the Acomb Stakes puts him in the mix at a juicy price.

Our view: The Boys in Blue like STRIKING STAR, he's in the right hands and has form on soft ground (doing it so, so easily lto). Teal loves his best 2yo, CARAGIO who'll go in any ground - he's sure to be bang there in this ground. The other soft grounder in the race is PROMOTER.

On form previous to his race in Ireland, OVIEDO has the ability to upset the party but I feel the ground might have gone against him today as it might have done for a lot of the fast ground horses - think Cox's, Crisford's and Chapple-Hyam's (Chapple-Hyam's is going to be a dark horse moving forward after this race, it's just a shame the ground has gone for him - I've heard he's very good). If i was betting this race I'd probably back the Godolphin fave and hedge with either CARAGIO or PROMOTOR at the bigger prices.

14.25 Gr3 St Simon Stakes

For a Group 3 race at Newbury, this has some good horses in it.

At the top of the market, we have William Haggas’ HAMISH, a three-time Group 3 winner who has beaten the likes of HAMISH and finished a close second to both KYPRIOS and TRUESHAN in his career – if he turns up in that form, he will be very hard to beat on ground he has dealt with before.

Behind him in the betting is LONE EAGLE, a horse who beat the subsequent Breeders’ Cup Turf successor YIBIR in a Listed event at Goodwood last year and was second to HURRICANE LANE in the 2021 Gr1 Irish Derby – a disappointing third to THIRD REALM this year and a mediocre run in France for his new yard of Freddie & Martyn Meade reads poorly but he could easily bounce back.

And then you have Godolphin’s PASSION AND GLORY declared for the race at 7/1, a good winner of the Listed Gala Stakes three starts ago for today’s Hollie Doyle and Saeed bin Suroor partnership – his soft ground record reads well (two wins on g/s, one win on heavy, and a good third to the subsequent Arc winner TORQUATOR TASSO in the Gr1 Grosser Preis von Baden in 2021 on g/s) so he should have his ideal conditions today.

Our view: HAMISH is 8/11 and is today's leverage for a good single.

14.40 Masterson Holdings Hurdle

We wouldn’t usually preview a Class 2 £40k hurdle but this year’s renewal of the race is one every jumps fan is going to ignore their family for 5 mins to tune in.

It see's PIED PIPER and KNIGHT SALUTE engage in a rematch after the two met at Aintree. Milton Harris’ horse won the race in the Stewards’ room following THAT dead-heat. The Stewards really had it in for Gordon that day, I have to say.

Gordon Elliott’s four-year-old was the odds-on favourite at Aintree and the eventual winner went off at 16/1 – this time round there is a much smaller gap between the pair, though PIED PIPER is still better-fancied runner today at 5/6.

Looking back on Aintree, Davy Russell potentially got there too soon on the son of NEW APPROACH and that is what cost him in the end – returning to a track he bolted up at Trials Day in the Gr2 Triumph Trial, has the market got this one right?

KNIGHT SALUTE is another who has bolted up at Cheltenham before, this time in a different Gr2 Triumph Trial at the November meeting – he bombed out in the Gr1 Triumph at the Festival and is potentially the less fit horse of the two following PIED PIPER’s more recent run on the flat.

Away from the top two, Joseph O’Brien sends just one horse to the whole Cheltenham October meeting and it’s the mare BELLA SCINTILLA, a horse who got off the mark on her eighth attempt lto at Killarney – she receives 15 pounds off both PIED PIPER and KNIGHT SALUTE, putting her right there on ratings, though Kevin Blake did say on the Betfair Racing Only Bettor podcast that this race may be being used as a sighter for later season targets.

Our view: We think PIED PIPER slams KNIGHT SALUTE today. He had a hard run at Cheltenham which is perhaps the reason he ran flat at Aintree, although still looked the winner. Fresh today, he'll be fucking tought to beat. Strong bet.

15.00 Listed Doncaster Stakes

35 minutes before the main event, the Listed Doncaster Stakes over six furlongs has attracted a good field of nine to the contest and it’s another race dominated by Aidan O’Brien horses – this time he fills the top two places in the market with AESOP’S FABLES and HISPANIC - both by rocket maker, NO NAY NEVER.

The former has two wins and two fourths to his name – he won the Group 2 Irish Futurity Stakes well to beat his stablemate HANS ANDERSEN but then failed to deliver on the Group 1 scene in both the National Stakes and Dewhurst – a drop back in grade on his first start over six should be a good place to finish his season.

And for the latter, he took a massive leap forward lto in a maiden at the Curragh to bolt up by eight lengths after two fairly average efforts in September.

The overall time of his race lto was slower than the five-furlong handicap later on the card and he was only 1.5s faster than the 57-rated MYMOMENTINTIME in the final two furlongs.

Of the rest, Frankie Dettori, who has placed in seven of his last 11 races without a victory, takes the ride on Juddmonte’s BRESSON for his employers of John & Thady Gosden.

Having already raced five times this season, this son of DUBAWI has form tied in with VICTORY DANCE, a subsequent Listed winner, and he bolted up two starts ago on his only outing over six furlongs – back to that winning distance and with the first-time headgear on, he could be dangerous.

Our view: No bet but we think BRESSON dropped back to 6f is interesting, especially over the straight 6 at Donny. Ground won’t be an issue and first time blinkers may be just the ticket.

15.35 Gr1 Vertem Futurity Stakes  

The only Group 1 race of the day, a race that has been won by the likes of LUXEMBOURG, SAXON WARRIOR, and CAMELOT for Aidan O’Brien.

AUGUSTE RODIN is going to be a NR (whispers Gosdens is too) now but O’Brien also sends SALT LAKE CITY, a GALILEO offspring o/o a dual Gr2 winner in HEARTACHE.

SLC is a five-length Navan maiden winner and looks very progressive (May foal) - Ryan Moore can only ride one and this looks a peach of a ride for Wayne Lordan. His debut form is really solid being a length off Al Riffa who had had the benefit of a run and went on to win a Gr1 on his next start. Write off his York run, his draw wiped out his chances. This lad is certainly not making up the numbers.

It feels like HOLLOWAY BOY has been racing in all of these high-class middle-distance events since Royal Ascot, but he’s yet to back his surprise debut win. Following disappointment when a beaten favourite behind EPICENTUS lto, he is tackling his first Group 1 today.

The ULYSSES two-year-old hasn’t raced on anything slower than good ground and he is set to race on heavy today... I think his dam side means he might like it!

Our view: AUGUSTE RODIN is going to be a NR, Coolmore's backup is SALT LAKE CITY who they obviously think goes in the ground but I'm not sure I really wouldn't be surprised if HOLLOWAY BOY popped up again but we're going to side with a bigger price in Balding's STORMBUSTER. STORMBUSTER looks very progressive winning his last start by a commanding 5 lengths. He’s a full brother to Gr1 Juddmonte International winner ARABIAN QUEEN so he’s bred to be smart and being by DUBAWI he won’t mind the heavy going. He’s improving and could be a real threat to the ones at the head of the market.

Risk on

14.25 HAMISH & 14.40 PIED PIPER

HAMISH is leverage for the PIED PIPER single. 2/1 strong.

15.30 SMALL OASIS & BALALAIKA

SMALL OASIS. I think this filly is almost NAP material. She lost a shoe when 3rd in the Oh So Sharp stakes at Newmarket. That was a Gr3 and now dropped into Listed company. She has form in Ireland on soft ground beating some smart rivals. Menzies 2/1 to place top 4 should be a good hedge. Full bet on SMALL OASIS 2’s.

15.35 STORMBUSTER

For reasons in the preview. Half bet ew.

16.20 MISTER MISTER

Sea the Moon colt who won on Yielding to soft beating a Ballydoyle horse who runs in a Gr1 in France today, Covent Garden. Progressive and looks the part on breeding. Half bet.

Finndogs bets