Equinties - the weekender

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Gm Equinauts

Two bets yesterday, one gamble landed.

Watch it again.

Bet less and bet singles with conviction. Learn to enjoy racing without risk on and spend the profit on good times with friends and family. That's all there really is to it.

Remember - lot's of racing today. Maintain an interest in all the big races without the financial commitment, set up your stable and add it to our league using code: QHZ36G.

Now, let's dive tf in.

Headline roundup

Not news but a nice little competition for you all.

Big race preview

The Greenham - Newbury

A 2000 Guineas trial at our local track Newbury. Loads of top Group 1 winners have won this in the past; FRANKEL, KINGMAN, OLYMPIC GLORY, MUHAARAR, TASLEET, BARNEY ROY, MOHAATHER (stands at Shadwell, we might have just a BGP mare there ;) ) and the list goes on.

CHALDEAN is the pin-up boy at Baldings yard. He won the Dewhurst last year, which is arguably the best 2yo race for the Guineas itself. He makes his seasonal debut today and if you’ve backed him over the winter for the 2000 Guineas you’ll be hoping for a dominate display. He is a May foal, so born quite late in the year as such you’ll be inclined to think that there is improvement in him.

KNIGHT is unbeaten in two starts for the Crisford team. He is sharply bred being by MEHMAS, but his back page includes SHERGAR.

THEORYOFEVERYTHING made a favourable impression at Donny 20 days ago when he fluffed the start and got a little hampered but won by 6 lengths in the end. He’s by FRANKEL and out of PERSUASIVE who won a Group 1 on soft ground. He could be anything.

CHARYN holds some course form as he was 3rd in the Mill Reef Stakes last year. Sprinting looks his game as he is by DARK ANGEL and out of a KODIAC mare. Sprinters have won this in the past.

STREETS OF GOLD was a 27,000gns yearling purchase, by HAVANA GOLD and out of a FRANKEL mare. Unbeaten last year and looks progressive, his last two runs were on soft and good to soft so won’t mind the easy conditions.

THE RIDLER was the culprit for a messy Norfolk Stakes when Paul Hanagan thought he was in a dodgem kart. Buick in the controls today.

ZOOLOGY is repping the Middle Park form and was a good bet lto, another winner. He got found out in the Middle Park but has had a run this year. He is by ZOUSTAR who stands for £120,000 in Australia, his progeny tend to improve from 2yo to 3yo.

In all, it’ll be a shock if CHALDEAN doesn’t win. We've been told he's f*cking flying. He is third fave for the Guineas itself BUT... knowing Balding, he might not be fully wound up today. THEORYOFEVERYTHING and KNIGHT could give some stiff competition.

 Committed Stakes - Naven

A Listed race over 5 and a bit furlongs. A small field but a classy one.

Ryan Moore will be in full flight here on THE ANTARCTIC. He’s a brother to BATTASH and is all speed. The highest rated 2yo of this bunch and although he missed the break in the Middle Park that looks the best form. He wins this.

SHARTASH will be second. SHARTASH has a very active pedigree, his dam is a sister to INDESTRUCTIBLE’s dam. You know, that 8/1 winner we back this week? His best run was over 6 furlongs in the Gr2 Railway Stakes when he got the better of eventual Middle Park winner BLACKBEARD. He hit the cross bar after that when placed in the Gr1 National Stakes over 7 furlongs and fourth in the Gr1 Lagadere over 7 furlongs. Reverts back to sprinting.

AESOPS FABLES ran a good race in the Dewhurst towards the end of last year and perhaps didn’t quite see out the 7 furlongs. Before that he was another who ran well in the Gr1 National Stakes a length behind SHARTASH. AF ended the season with a close second at Donny off top weight, reverting back to 6 furlongs. OCEAN QUEST is rated 99 and gets the handy fillies allowance and dodges a penalty, so runs off 9st. She won first time out at the Curragh over 5 furlongs and was placed in two starts afterwards, notching some good form but difficult to gauge if she is good enough today.

Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle - Ayr

Only 11 will go under starter’s orders for the Scottish Champion Hurdle and like the Welsh version, it’s a handicap to add some more spice to the contest!

Two former winners are pitched into the race at each-way prices with the shortest being ANNA BUNINA for John McConnell.

The seven-year-old won from the clouds last year off a 12-pound lower mark and she comes into today’s contest having finished second to the subsequent Mares’ Hurdle third, QUEENS BROOK, two starts ago as well as finishing fourth to GAELIC WARRIOR at the DRF.

McConnell was hoping for a good run in the County lto (ninth, seven lengths back) but the ground may have just turned for her and this sounder surface will suit better.

The other former winner is MILKWOOD who won this in 2021 off a four-pound higher mark, so on that form, he is very well-handicapped, and when he did win, he scooted in.

He is a proper good ground horse and he was dropped three pounds for his last run in the County on the wrong ground, so this could have been brilliant placement from a good target trainer in Neil Mulholland.

SOARING GLORY is the fair gamble in this race and has finally steadier at 6/1 for Jonjo O’Neill Jnr and Snr who have been waiting to run him in on “some better ground at a good one” according to his piece with Ash Symonds in his Gloucestershire Live articel so he could feature whilst COLONEL MUSTARD was given 3lbs for his second lto but he wouldn’t want the ground too fast.

Grade 2 Future Champion Novices’ Chase - Ayr

Tough little contest so we’ll keep this short.

BALCO COASTAL was poor lto behind Stage Star and is prone to throwing a proper clanger in, though his win over SOLO three starts ago and second to GERRI COLOMBE two starts ago reads well, however, the quick ground may be a concern.

THUNDER ROCK is another who thumped SOLO this season and there’s a case to say that he never really needed three miles, so his run in the Brown Advisory can be slightly overlooked.

His third to both THE REAL WHACKER and GERRI COLOMBE over 2m4f is promising, especially the first where he was ridden very cold, and he has bolted up on good ground this season at Uttoxeter.

The interesting one who has seen money is TELMESOMETHINGGIRL for Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore (FUN FACT: Blackmore has only ridden around Ayr four times in her career, all of them she lost, and de Bromhead has never had a runner at the Scottish track.)

You get the impression that this is last chance saloon for the once Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winner as she hasn’t jumped too fluently so far this season – her second to BRIDES HILL was again disappointing but it’s ballsy to be bringing her here.

Scottish Grand National - Ayr

Let’s start at the top with the ante-post gamble, MONBEG GENIUS. There has been a small selloff from 4/1 to 11/2 and that will be because of the ground – he wants a good bit of cut and it could maybe be just a bit too quick and he's been given 5lbs for his third in the Ultima. It looks good form, but when does his winning in handicaps stop?

KITTY’S LIGHT is looking to emulate his stablemate WIN MY WINGS from last season who did the Eider & Scottish National double, however, he plowed into every fence in the Eider and would need to improve in that department to win today.

YOUR OWN STORY could be set to do the National double for Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox and his mark of 128 would suggest there is still improvement there for a horse who bolted up on good ground two starts ago. Lucina has had a great season.

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Risk on

 17.15 REVENUE

A rocket for Eve who is just starting to fire up. We've hit 5's, 4's and 10/3 but is still a strong bet still at 2/1.

Any other bets will be posted on twitter @equinties

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

The TOTE FANTASY is good chimp management. Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: