Equinties - weekender

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Gm Equinauts 

It’s a huge weekend of racing with, as it stands, some proper, proper horses on display.

We did this last weekend…

So, let’s just dive tf in and do it all over again.

Big race previews

(Grand National) Becher handicap

Not the main event but a race which all eyes will be on as horses take on the iconic Grand National fences which serves as a trial for the main event. SNOW LEOPARDESS returns to defend her title but needs to bounce back from her last two efforts where she was pulled up.

Heading the market is the relatively unexposed GESSKILLE for Greenall and Guerriero with Henry Brooke riding. This las hasn’t stopped improving since he came over from France and really should have won the Sefton lto but just lost out to 149 rated AL DANCER. With a clean route round, he’s sure to be bang there.

The market mover in this is FIVE STAR GETAWAY for Christian Williams. I had him noted down as a big fat non-trier lto and given the owner loves an Aintree winner, this will have been the plan since last season.

Next up is Skelton’s ASHTOWN LAD who’s had a good spin over hurdles to get him cherry ripe for today. The Skelton’s have landed big races the last two Saturdays and this lad has a good chance to make it three in a row now back down to a more suitable trip.

Beyond Skelton’s, the market are giving away the rest at double figure prices. THE WOLF tries easier fences now (he’s had jumping issues), HILL SIXTEEN hasn’t won for years, FANTASTIKAS mark looks quite high.

There are some very well-handicapped horses in the races such as THE JAM MAN and DOMAINE DE L’ISLE but their recent form leaves much to be desired.

Our view: It’s going to be a great race to watch and so just for interest in one of the main events of the day, two small plays on FIVE STAR GETAWAY and the fave, GESSKILLE, with the latter looking a solid ew to nothing is our suggestion.

Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase 

Named after the Grand National winning legend, MANYCLOUDS, this Grade 2 chase is the only graded race at Aintree today and only six head to post but good lord there’s some nice horses in this including AHOY SENOR and recent Grand National winner NOBLE YEATS…fitting.

At the head of the field it’s AHOY SENOR. He is reappearing for the first time since his massive disappointment in the Charlie Hall lto – connections were puzzled as to why this happened. That said, the seven-year-old’s record at the Merseyside track is 2/2 over both hurdles and fences and on both occasions, he beat BRAVEMANSGAME comfortably, the now ante-post favourite for King George on Boxing Day.

CHANTRY HOUSE and SOUNDS RUSSIAN share the second favourite position in the market, two horses at different ends of the spectrum. 

The former, despite only being an eight-year-old, is the more experienced operator having scored over course and distance in the 2021 Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase – he looks like he is a proper stayer and lacks speed on the evidence of his Cotswold Chase. 

The latter, SOUNDS RUSSIAN is the more progressive type and has improved 36 pounds since his Kelso novice handicap chase win 11 months ago – this is his first delve out of handicap company since his maiden hurdle second seven starts ago so he is a big unknown in this race with it all to prove.

Last season’s Grand National winner, NOBLE YEATS, is the second highest-rated horse in the race following his Listed Wexford win 33 days ago. Now officially rated 160, 13lbs higher than his National success, this is his first proper test at this level to see whether he is a potential Gold Cup contender this season.

Our view: Write AHOY SENOR off at your peril. One solitary bad run (barring an unseat) and people have already started to. It was his seasonal return at Wetherby, it happens and I don’t believe it was his true running. Conditions today are perfect for him and after that recent blow out, I can see him back in the winners enclosure today.

Grade 2 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase 

The current Arkle ante-post favourite is making his second start of the season in the 13.45 at Sandown today as Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old is priced at 1/3 to continue his unbeaten record over fences. 

You couldn’t fault his run at Warwick lto and Henderson was sure that he’d stay further in time, so the hill at Sandown tomorrow shouldn’t be an issue. 

Stepping out of handicap company for the first time since his novice chase run last year is BOOTHILL for Harry Fry and Jonathan Burke – he is priced at 10/3 after his easy win lto (we backed).

He won off a mark of 140 to beat some nice horses in BEFORE MIDNIGHT and FRERO BANBOU – officially, he is only 5lbs off JONBON but he earned his rating from handicaps, which sometimes can bolster ratings more than what Graded races do.  

The interesting contender in this line-up is UNEXPECTED PARTY for Dan and Harry Skelton, a two-time hurdles winner. Second to MCFABULOUS lto at Exeter, he is unexposed over two miles and has always travelled well into his races without seeing out the trip – can he find improvement over this trip against JONBON?  

Our view: JONBON looked a machine lto and this race will just make for good viewing today.

Grade 1 Tingle Creek 

The highlight race of the weekend is the Grade 1 Tingle Creek over 1m7½f and we are set to see the return of SHISHKIN as he locks horns with GREANETEEN yet again. 

The rare bone condition seems to be a thing of the past and recent ground updates from the course would suggest that SHISHKIN will run today – Nicky Henderson’s role of honour in this race includes ALTIOR in 2018 and before that, PRINTER SACRE, in 2012. Can he join these legends today? 

Last year’s winner GREANETEEN is in the form of his life and he is always targeted for the big Sandown two-mile chases as he has won the last two renewals of the Grade 1 Celebration Chase. 

Trained by Paul Nicholls, the ultimate target trainer, he will be 100% for the race and has the mustard man Harry Cobden on board – can he reverse the form with SHISHKIN? 

The horse stepping up into open company for the first time is Alan King’s EDWARDSTONE following his Arkle win last season. 

He was subsequently beaten by GENTLEMAN DE MEE on his last start at Aintree, a horse who reopposes today, and has questions to ask on the strength of last year’s novice form.  

 Our view: I said yesterday the best horses are going to win today and SHISHKIN is one of them.

Chepstow bumper

A tough bumper on paper with Nicholls heading the market (obviously). He was a great pinhook, going from a 50k foal to 120k as a 3yo which is telling. Every one of these has a NH pedigree making it hard to read but half won’t be out to win. The horse I’ll be making notes on is BIG AMBITIONS at 7’s. he’s a full brother to DEATH DUTY who is still knocking about but back in the day used to win Graded races for fun. He finished 1st, 1st and 2nd in his bumpers recording a peak rpr of 136! If BIG AMBITIONS is anything like his brother, then he will surely live up to his name. He is drifting which might mean he’s not trying… sometimes when horses are really nice they’ll be looked after by their trainers with bigger ambitions.

SUNDAY 

Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle 

Fairyhouse hosts three Grade 1 events on Sunday and the first is a tasty-looking novice hurdle over two miles, a race that is headed by CHAMP KIELY for Willie Mullins, a two-time winner over obstacles. 

He has done it at both 2m5f and 2m and looks like a proper one for the master trainer, someone who has won this race nine times already – he has drifted from 6/5 to 2/1 and Paul Townsend has chosen him over both HERCULE DU SEUIL, ASHROE DIAMOND, and POLO LOUNGE.  

The unbeaten MARINE NATIONALE is next in the market for Barry Connell, a maiden hurdle winner at Punchestown 53 days ago under Michael O’Sullivan. 

He was the first novice hurdler to send ripples across Racing Twitter and is a general 25/1 shot for the Supreme in March – is this his distance, or would he want further? 

Gordon Elliott’s charge for this race is IRISH POINT, a winner over in France before his maiden hurdle success at Cork. 

He beat IL EST FRANCAIS in a Group 1 1m4f flat race last November, that horse has since won four hurdle races on the bounce, including a Gr3 and Gr1 for Tom George – could that form go under the radar in the market? 

Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase 

In what is probably the best/most competitive race of the weekend, 11 are set to go to post for the 2m5f Drinmore Novice Chase, a race Gordon Elliott’s fields two fancied runners in. 

THREE STRIPE LIFE, despite being the current favourite, has drifted from 6/4 to 3/1 in the lead-up to today – he is the choice of Davy Russell following his Grade 1 success at Aintree over hurdles last season. His chase debut was reasonable at Naas last month and he is the one to beat, however, he wasn’t the slickest lto and there are still areas to improve. 

Elliott’s other chance for today is MIGHTY POTTER, a Grade 1 winner at the Punchestown Festival to beat SIR GERHARD and DYSART DYNAMO. He won on his chase debut to beat the 128-rated MARS HARPER and the 130-rated LARGY DEBUT despite making a few errors – with the run under his belt, can he improve over fences to be competitive today? 

The horse that has captured lots of Twitter talk after his Cheltenham win was BANBRIDGE and it seems connections are happy to step him back up to 2m4f for the Drinmore following his easy victory over two miles lto. He looked like a proper two-miler lto and he is priced up at 12/1 for both the Arkle and the Turners in March – how will he fair back over 2m4f in this hot company? 

Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace hurdle

And finally, a mare who needs introduction, HONEYSUCKLE. She is set to make her seasonal reappearance and go 17 from 17… that is fucking insane!

Risk on 

12.13 TRAC

Plot job for Micky Hammond. Owners took 20’s into 10’s, BGP Capital on after them. 7’s left for a half bet ew.

14.12 MANOTHEPEOPLE

Looked great lto at Chepstow and Paddy said post-race he’d have paid to ride him. In a two horse, and despite JJ’s being unbeaten (and winning one of the better novice chases lto) I think he’s a good play at 5/2.

13.30 AHOY SENOR & 14.55 SHISHKIN

The ‘best horses win today’ double. If they’re both at their best, they’ll win. Full bet at 5’s with singles on them both.