Equinties - weekender

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We'll focus on the European stuff now and press a second newsletter later for the Breeders Cup.

Let's dive in.

13.15 G2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase 

In one of the more interesting races of the day, Paul Nicholls’ MCFABULOUS tops a field of six for the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase over 2m4f – he was a two-time Grade 2 winner over hurdles last season, including the Select Hurdle lto, and is the highest rated horse by a good few pounds.  

His first-time-out record is fairly good, three wins and two seconds, and Nicholls has been targeting his horses very well recently (GREANETEEN in the Haldon Gold Cup yesterday). 

Tom LACEY’S SEBASTOPOL is the next-best on ratings and is the second favourite in the market – his return to fences two starts ago in a match race at Chepstow was a non-event and then he was soundly beaten by SCEAU ROYAL in a Listed hurdle race lto and he has to carry a five-pound penalty. 

HANG IN THERE, for the same connections as PAISLEY PARK, has a chasing record of four wins from his last five races and that includes his pulled-up run at Cheltenham lto – before that, the eight-year-old had clocked up a total winning margin of 108 lengths from four novice chase starts and will enjoy today’s good ground.  

 Our view: MCFABULOUS for Nicholls' looks a banker.

Badger Beer Handicap Chase 

One of the day's big field handicaps for the chimps to get stuck into.

The Badger Beer over 3m1f at Wincanton has attracted 11 runners to the race, an event that has been won by Paul Nicholls 10 times (that's mental) – FRODON and ENRILO are the Champion Trainer’s only chances and they both occupy the top two places in the market. 

FRODON and connections have swerved the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase today to come here as the top-weight off 158 – he was miraculously dropped six pounds for his run in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and he is rated six pounds below his last two handicap chase victories (2018 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and 2020 Cheltenham Handicap Chase), a stat that has to put him in good stead today. 

Elsewhere, LORD ACCORD is looking to defy just a five-pound rise in the weights from his recent Cheltenham success two weeks ago to land a nice touch for Neil Mulholland, a trainer who has only had three winners in his last 29 runners. 

POTTERMAN, second in this contest in 2021 and 2020, comes into today off a 196-day break – he ran in the race last year as his season opener and his record when fresh in recent years has been fairly promising, can he finally get his head in front today? 

ROCCO was the horse who beat POTTERMAN last year off a mark of 134, today he is six pounds lower and is a fresh horse, something that brings out the best in him.  

Emma Lavelle won this race in 2014 (with COURT BY SURPRISE), IRISH PROPHECY represents the team and is rated just a pound lower than his course victory in the Desert Orchid Silver Cup last year, however, Lavelle can’t buy a winner at the moment as her record reads one winner from her last 22 runners. 

Our view: Despite top weight, FRODON is in a different league to this lot and could bolt up here on the quick ground. His price earlier in the week was ridiculous. EL PRESENTE is too well-handicapped to ignore, he could fill a place should he be back to his bet for a yard in form.

14.32 Down Royal G1 Champion Chase 

Just the five are going to post for Europe’s only Grade 1 event today, a field that is topped by the Gordon Elliott duo of GALVIN and CONFLATED. 

The former was Elliott’s Gold Cup horse last year and won the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Christmas to beat A PLUS TARD late on - he showed his ability lto in a Grade 3 at Punchestown and this has been the long-term target.  

As for the latter, CONFLATED landed a small gamble for the Gigginstown boys in the Irish Gold Cup in February as he beat MINELLA INDO, JANIDIL, and ASTERION FORLONGE at odds of 18/1. 

Since then, he would have probably finished second to ALLAHO in the Ryanair had he not come down at the penultimate fence and he finished a close second to CLAN DES OBEAUX in the Grade 1 Betway Bowl in April – can he upset the GALVIN party? 

No one would have thought two years ago that ENVOI ALLEN would be as big as 8/1 for an early season Grade 1 but that is what he is today for Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore – he returns to three miles for the first time since he pulled up behind COLREEVY in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival in 2021 and last season was certainly one to forget for the eight-year-old. 

A return to his former monster self would see him go close today but he hasn't been the same since leaving Gordons yard and there are too many question marks as to what has happened to him.

Our view: If the ground is testing (RP description is soft) we like CONFLATED to take on the odds on GALVIN.

15.00 G2 Elite Hurdle 

Continuing the theme of the low field size Graded races this season, SCEAU ROYAL tops a group of four runners for the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle over two miles. This is HIS race.

The 10-year-old won this race at a shade of odds-on in both 2021 and 2020 and it seems like today has been the long-term target for Alan King and connections – he bolted up lto to beat SEBASTOPOL and he always runs well in the early parts of the season on good ground so he should be perfectly suited to today. 

Connections of KNAPPERS HILL have decided to skip next week’s Greatwood Hurdle, a race he would have been top-weight for, to head to today’s Grade 2 contest – he won lto at Chepstow under a confident Harry Cobden to beat Chris Gordon’s LORD BADDESLEY though he is stepping out of handicap company today and I suspect the horses he beat lto weren't even trying.

Looking at the bare form of his Chepstow run, BROOMFIELD BERG (RIP), DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO, and PROSCHEMA all had future targets in mind so they were carefully handled - that could be seen as a negative to KNAPPERS HILL’s chances today. 

MILKWOOD and KNIGHT SALUTE complete the field of four but both need to find some and the former was soundly beaten at Cheltenham lto – can he improve on his second to PIED PIPER, who won at Down Royal yesterday in the WKD Hurdle, to deliver for Milton Harris and Paddy Brennan? Possibly.

 Our view: This is SCEAU ROYAL's Cheltenham today. He'll take some beating.

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Aintree bumper

This is a shocking bumper, surprising for Aintree given some good horses have won this before (think I LIKE TO MOVE IT) but there is one very intriguing horse in the race... Menzies POINT FRANKLIN.

Joseph O'Brien paid 175k in 2020 for POINT FRANKLIN! He's a half to Gr 1 St Leger winner, ORDER OF ST GEORGE. The drift to 7's from 3's is bearish and the fact he's now in Menzies yard suggest he was a fantastic waste of money, but given the weakness of this race, he's DEFO on the shortlist.

The fave is NOTIMEFORANOTHER who there were whispers for before but that bumper was weaker than this.

The Crawford brothers send one, they're bumper specialists but theirs is such a shit ped I'm drawing a line through it. As I am for Bandey's too.

O'Keeffe's MONTY NEVETT is interesting. CHURCHILL is proving a versatile sire and although the dam has only produced shitters, the dam sire ticks the box for a bumper. He's on the shortlist.

Lucinda Russell (trainer of our lev horse yesterday!) runs an interesting recruit but the ped is a little opaque however he does have the right names on the page and could be a dark horse in this race.

Our view: On breeding, it's Menzies 100% but there are some massive red flags, namely the fact JOB got rid of it! I'm going with what I THINK is the safe play and hang my hat on MONTY NEVETT at 12's (but if Menzies win's, I really wouldn't be surprised so he' a hedge).

Kelso bumper

I don't think you need to look past Fergal's KAMINAS in this.

Our view: KAMINSAS should just win at even money.

Wincanton bumper

Nicholls heads the market in this one and he's fucking flying atm. This horse is well-related dam side and would be bumper NAP if his full-sister wasn't such a yak! That said, this lad was expensive and could be useful.

Weston runs SIX AND OUT who has run to a good level already and should defo be in the places. Christian Williams doesn't get them ready for bumpers, so a line is drawn through his.

I don't think the others can win.

Our view: Nicholls' KICK UP A STORM should win and then Weston's SIX AND OUT to fill the places.

Risk On

Lunch money acca

1:15 McFab

2:45 Brewin’upastorm

3:00 Sceau Royal

4:00 High Honour

Finndog nap