Equinties - The weekender

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Gm Equinauts

IT'S SLOPPY AND IT'S SATURDAY.

LET'S DIVE TF IN AND GET RISK ON.

Headline roundup

The Byrnes banter

BLAZING KHAL WAS ALWAYS GOING TO CHELTENHAM. Yesterday it was confirmed that the wounded Stayers fave, BLAZING KHAL will indeed head to Cheltenham after a little set back, a cut on his fetlock, after winning the Boyne Hurdle.

I bet all those tin foil hat wearing mf's are thinking 'I KNEW IT, BYRNES WAS HAVING EVERYONES PANTS DOWN FOR A BIGGER PRICE'.

Er, no. You really need therapy if you think that. Racing is bent but it's really not that bad. I think the communication from yard to punter was very open and honest. That cut did look bad and being on the fetlock will have taken some time to heal (he might be heading to Cheltenham despite missing work). Punters are so used to the exchange moving before the news, not the news moving the exchange... they should welcome the transparency of Byrnes.

And yes, I do understand the irony of me saying this about an Irish trainer like Byrnes.

Sandown slop

We've, well, I've been obsessed with the weather this week with Cheltenham in mind and I wont lie, it didn't even cross my mind that there'll be an opportunity to take advantage of this weather before Cheltenham.

In celebration of the sloppiest event we've seen so far this year, I'm going to go through the card and focus solely on the pedigree's.

13.15 Juvenile Hurdle

Some weird pedigree's in this race which makes them really hard to read. For example Tizzard's horses is by an Australian bullet sprinter but out of a staying mare by NH sire AUTHORIZED. Weird.

I think Moore's SPIRIT D'AUNOU at 5/4 is the bet in this though, he beat some nice pedigree's lto and on ratings, the others have some to find. The Moore's love a big Saturday Sandown winner.

Selection: SPIRIT D'AUNOU

13.50 Novice Hurdle

Loads of runners in this, all having achieved a much of a muchness but the overnight money has come for the TD horse CUTHBERT DIBBLE for his rout in the mud lto. I'm not sure what he beat though so would be keen to take on despite his ability to go in todays conditions.

CRAMBO and HENRI THE SECOND share the same sire and both out of French mares, they'll love the mud today. I think these two are the best horses in the race despite their drifting price and if it's a going day, should be fighting it out together up the hill.

Selection: CRAMBO and HENRI THE SECOND

14.25 Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle

Another tough one with a load of sloppers in this. It's going to be a brilliant race.

If you scroll all the way to the bottom of the market, you'll recognise the silks of our mega babe PLANSINA. This girl is a half to ROYALE PAGAILLE and was running well on debut for Symonds behind 148 rated JEREMYS FLAME but stopped quickly suggesting her pallet flipped. She's had her wind done since and at the prices with all the places on offer, I'm genuinely going to have a little go on this girl. Could she be mega babe 2.0?

Selection: ROYALE MARGAUX

15.00 Mares Listed Bumper

Mares... yuk and to make it even worse, another TD horse heading the market here in CASA NO MENTO. Just cant trust Twist Davies to have them right. Tbf, CASA NO MENTO is unbeaten and looked impressive in both his Point and bumper lto so has to be feared but again, on a pedigree basis (and unreliable yard) basis, I'm going to take on.

Next in line, Fry's and Nicholls' have form with each other and I don't think its that good, so despite the trainers being very good at targeting such races, I'm taking on and looking further down the market.

SAINT BIBIANA has run well in 3 sloppy bumpers (ran a fourth but that was on good) with the latest bumper form being very well franked in an Ascot class 3 bumper. I think the ground is key to this girl and she's a half to the likes of top mares SABRINA and LADY ADARE.

Another one in this I like is MERCIAN OMEN for Amy Murphy. On pedigree, she's a hedge with Baileys.

Selection: SAINT BIBIANA and MERCIAN OMEN

15.35 Novices Handicap Chase

I know he carries a lot of weight but I have a soft spot for EASY AS THAT and struggling to see past him especially in this ground.

Selection: EASY AS THAT

16.10 Handicap Chase

Venetia's mare is heading the market and I can see why - won easily last twice in the mud (obvs) and Venetia loves a muddy Saturday Sandown showdown. I can see her winning but I'm going to take her on with some form ties linked to BGP Capital affiliate horses.

MAKE ME A BELIEVER for Pipe loves the ground, comes into this fresh and has the best form on offer, namely with a horse I know very well in MINT CONDITION.

Selection: MAKE ME A BELIEVER

16.45 Handicap Chase

Loads of soft ground horses in this and not a race I really wanted to get stuck into as it stinks - Evan Williams' heads the market but there's looks to be a bit of a gamble on JP's BELARGUS having pulled up lto... so I'd be inclined to just watch but, the horse I will hang my hat on is a horse by my favourite NH sire MIDNIGHT LEGEND in NOCTE VOLATUS.

He finished 2nd in this race last year and you know damn well Lacey will have targeted this race today to go one better. NOCTE adores the mud and his dad means he's mentally hard as fuck.

Selection: NOCTE VOLATUS

Wolves big race preview 

14. 05 Lincoln Trial

Looks a good race, competitive field. This was won last year by Andrew Balding's NOTRE BELLE BETE who lines up again off a mark 8lbs higher. Has had a prep run into this race when he was second to OUTBREAK, but was closing in on him that day and would be expected to turn the tables (I've spoken with the Balding lot this morning and they think they'll have a good day).

UNFORGOTTEN is a lightly raced son of Exceed and Excel. Has won a Class 4 and a class 3 at Lingfield this year off the back of 659 days on the sidelines with an injury. His form back in 2021 was very good, was second by a length to MOHAAFETH who is now rated 112 - UNFORGOTTEN has a rating of 94.

EILEEN DUBH is on a career high mark of 95 after 22 runs. ALREHB has beaten him before and has got place claims for up and coming trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy.

DARK MOON RISING brings some good form to the party. He will feel more comfortable back in trip to a mile (and half a furlong) and has been gelded. Was once 4th in the Dante behind Desert Crown. TACARIB BAY is going to find this difficult off top weight. However, he is a solid 104 rated performer. His form last year is really good, he wasn’t beaten far by Tempus (r114) when second to him at Ascot. And he wasn’t beaten far by Shelir (r108) and Triple Time (r107) as well last year. Verdict: DARK MOON RISING dropping in trip and weights looks the eachway play.

Our view: UNFORGOTTEN is on an upward curve and he looks an enticing bet especially if he can recapture his previous form

14.40 Wulfruna Stakes

BERKSHIRE SHADOW and ANGEL BLEU have both been off the track for over 200 days. Angel Bleu was the better of the two but it is hard to know how fit they are? They are in the care of the two leading trainers but I imagine they’ll only be 80% fit. ANGEL BLEU is the more likely type to win this race.

DHABAB is dropping back to 7 furlongs after running out of gas lto over a mile. He had TINKER TOY in front of him that day. TINKER TOY won this race last year for Varian who is quietly confident about his chances. His form is a little in and out, but the 7 furlongs today should keep him in good stead. HARRY’S BAR has made the voyage from Ireland. An excellent 8yo who is in good form and generally likes the All Weather. Has got the services of The Doyler and is a juicy each way price. VADREAM hasn’t got her head in front since 2021 and may find this too hot as well. An admirable filly on her day and the sharp 7 furlongs will suit her.

Our view: Difficult to gauge how ready ANGEL BLEU however is a Group 1 winning 2yo who made a good start to his 3 yo career but went wrong hence the break. Well handled and today has been the plan. Beckett knows what he's doing.

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No qualifiers today.

Risk on

There'll be a few plays today to be posted on twitter when I've organised them / got on but I'm already on EASY AS THAT for Venetia who I think is a monster.