Equinties - weekender

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Gm Equinauts

Having had a couple of unlucky photo finishes, a UR at the first, bad rides from Dunne and Wedge and well, a load of other good excuses for bad bets the last week, I thought I’d down tools after landing the big double Thursday and have yesterday off.

Why down tools?

It’s good for you. No anxiety from risk on, no results to change your mood… it’s healthy to have a break, even if I do use horse racing to pay for things.

I encourage you all to do the same… just don’t look at the fucking results at the end of the day! Good lord there were some good bets yesterday. I won’t go into it!

Anyway, there’s always another bet and even though the racing leaves much to be desired today, there might be some good plays.

Let’s dive in.

Big Race Previews

Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle Trial

Today’s action at the home of jumps racing kicks off with a race won last year by the subsequent Grade 1-successor KNIGHT SALUTE for the Milton yard.

Milton’s pulling no punches this year as he sends 100 rated flat horse, SCRIPTWRITER to retain his title.

Formerly with Aidan O’Brien, this horse had decent form with COROEBUS, PIZ BADILE, and DUKE DE SESSA on the flat and only cost his new connections 62,000GNS to purchase - if he sharpens up on his jumping from last time he looks a nice prospect for Harris, could this lad by CHURCHILL cause an upset!?

Well, the outright favourite in the market is BLUEKING D’OROUX for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. They’re fucking atm.

Whispers coming out of the yard suggest that in time this lad could be a very nice one for connections and he is already a winner over hurdles in France, albeit on very soft ground.

At bigger prices and one that has come for a bit of money is PERSEUS WAY for Gary Moore, a two-time winner on the flat for Charlie Appleby and Owen Burrows but his pedigree for jumps? Probably not.

MR FREEDOM looked like he was going to hose up lto but instead ran out. He’ll be limited in ability but this race ain’t deep.

Our view: Nicholls’ has a lovely pedigree and running for a yard who can’t do no wrong atm but … big but… he’s fresh from France and might need time to acclimatise meaning he’s one to take on with an ew to nothing play. SCRIPTWRITER AND MR FREEDOM are two to take him on imo with SCRIPWRITER the preference.

Grade 2 Arkle Trial

The third Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham this weekend is the Arkle Trial over two miles, a race that has seen MONMIRAL become a recent non-runner due to the quick ground - stewards at Cheltenham would have watered overnight, it’ll be interesting to see how much has been put on.

This leaves TOMMY’S OSCAR as the 7/4 favourite for Ann Hamilton, last season’s ninth in the Champion Hurdle.

He jumped brilliantly on his chasing debut to give 17lbs away to GEROMINO and he is a proper two miler - there are a lack of negatives about him today.

A horse who was ahead of him in the Champion Hurdle last season was Tom Lacey’s GLORY AND FORTUNE, a winner of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.

He ran over fences twice as a five-year-old and looked to hate every second of it - now two years older, this stiff test of jumping around Cheltenham is a difficult re-introduction to chasing.

A Cheltenham Festival winner last season in the very last race was the Irish raider BANBRIDGE - he’s returning to two miles for the first time in four runs.

A good winner over fences lto at Gowran Park, this step down to two miles rather than going to the 2m4f Handicap Chase, a race he was entered for, is an interesting decision, though he is one of the more progressive horses in the lineup.

Our view: BANBRIDGE looked good winning easily lto and repping the Irish, he’s certainly one to be feared. I don’t have an interest to take him on.

Paddy Power Gold Cup

The highlight race of the whole meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a 2m4f contest that has been won by the likes of AL FEROF and EXOTIC DANCER in years gone by.

One near-successor from last year was COOLE CODY for Evan Williams - he fell two-out when travelling well and returns this year off a 16lb higher mark this year, a rating his owner Wayne Clifford believes is too big.

This means that the Irish raider FRENCH DYNAMITE is the current favourite, a horse that hasn’t wavered as the ante-post favourite for some weeks.

Mouse Morris’ seven-year-old beat BALLYSHANNONROSE and CAPE GENTLEMAN comfortably on his hurdles reappearance and kept on well to beat CIEL DE NEIGE three starts ago in a Grade 3 at Thurles - 148 looks a nice mark and he is an understandable favourite.

The main challenger to his favouritism and a horse that has received market support is Sam Thomas’ STOLEN SILVER, a horse that was fourth in the recent renewal of the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival.

Thomas has a 33% SR currently and his seven-year-old runs off his highest mark yet - can this progressive chaser defy his 11-8 weight and contribute to the South Glamorgan-based trainer’s successes?

Our view: Hyper-competitive with some lovely horses in this including one of my favourite progressive horses racing in MIDNIGHT RIVER. We’ve gambled GA LAW before, he's good, IL RIDOTO comes with a rep, I wouldn’t like to take on Nicholls too much and as aforementioned STOLEN SILVER is well capable and been backed all week. Watching racing with a a preference for MIDNIGHT RIVER to win.

Irish racing

Away from Cheltenham today, the card over at Naas has attracted some nice horses on Saturday, none more do than Gordon Elliott’s FIL DOR in the Grade 3 Fishery Lane Hurdle.

Second in the Triumph to the highly impressive VAUBAN, the Fred Winter winner BRAZIL is his biggest rival on his seasonal debut over hurdles despite FIL DOR being talked up as a chaser by his trainer.

This hot contest will be a tough start for the four-year-old but that said, if VAUBAN didn’t exist Fil Dor would be 6/6 over hurdles, a 3 time Grade 1 winner, Triumph Hurdle winner and would be 4/7 for this today.

Just over an hour later, GENTLEMAN DE MEE, the horse who beat last season’s Arkle visitor at Aintree, makes his seasonal reappearance in the Grade 3 two-mile contest at Naas.

His most recent performance came as a slight surprise to beat ever-so consistent EDWARDSTONE at the end of the season and he doesn’t have much to beat today - what level can this lad perform to in his first season in open-Grade chasing company?

The end of the Naas card is a warm bumper with HALKA DU TABERT even money favourite heading market. All eyes on him - he looks a monster.

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Uttoxeter bumper

Fergal’s fave… yawn. Ran well in a good race lto but they aren’t world beaters and I think his rpr lto is too high. Taking him on despite knowing he’s defo the one to beat.

FEEL GOOD INC has been squeezed - he was an expensive purchase after falling when in contention for a point win.

EQUINUS is a half brother to that mcNally plot job VEE DANCER. Nige always has them ready for bumpers.

Our view: FEEL GOOD INC and EQUINUS to beat the fave.

Cheltenham: a few good mates in this race but it’s hard to see past LUCCIA who looked well above average lto at Sandown. Hendo is only just getting started and I think today kicks off a big few weeks for Sevenbarrows.

Note: Remember I kept harping on about a gambler giving me PROSCHEMA the other week for Wetherby? Well the same guy got me on WISEGUY 6’s antepost for today.

Risk on

13.45 BANBRIDGE

It’s fairly tight between him and Tommys Oscar on hurdles form but this lad is and will be a better chaser. His jumping will come to the fore today around Cheltenham and he’ll be hard to rein in on this good ground. Full bet 7/4

14.00 TACARIB BAY

Flying at home and they still think this lads a group horse. 3/1 full bet.

14.45 SUMMERGHAND

I thought this was out of logo hunter and Summerghand. LH is now out so the old beast Summerghand gets the nod. Loved his run lto behind Rohaan at Ascot, Rohaan is always a different at Ascot and there was also Run To Freedom in behind them who cemented the form by coming 2nd in the Gr1 Champions Sprint. Summerghand has won at Lingfield before and he’ll take some pegging back. Full bet 5/2.

15.30 WISEGUY & 16.05 LUCCIA 

Half bet ew double on the two Hendo horses who both should win but can’t see them out the top 3.