Equinties - weekender

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Headline roundup

Big race preview

It’s Saturday and whether you believe it or not, today has some very interesting races. Three Grade 2s, competitive handicaps, and the all-important bumpers to get stuck into.

Grade 2 Denman Chase

Although it’s just seven runners, this contest is a very interesting one.

HITMAN is the obvious place to go in this race, however, the early market guide of 13/8 ante-post has been put into disarray at the time of writing as Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old is as big as 5/2 at the top of the market.

The young chaser bled from the nose when he pulled up in the King George and is set to try three miles again, a distance he is trying for just the second time and there are doubts if he would like his good ground.

ELDORADO ALLEN, a solid Grade 1 performer won this race last year, giving the Tizzards their 4th Denman Chase trophy from the last 6 up for grabs. You imagine ground will be okay but he needs to be better than his recent form.

The nine-year-old has just been off that level of being able to win Grade 1s this season, however, his efforts in the Betfair Chase and Charlie Hall (yes, it’s a Grade 2 race but was Grade 1 quality) show that he is probably the one to beat.

FANION D’ESTRUVAL seems seems popular on racing twitter.

His last win came in a handicap chase off 151 and his Graded level-weights record reads 0/7 in the UK – he has won at the course before and has run into some previous handicap winners (INTO OVERDRIVE and LE MILOS), but seems a bit of a stretch for today.

Our view: Nicholls looks set to have a good day so I’d you like HITMAN at 5/2, you’ll love the MCFAB, GREANETEEN and HITMAN treble at 8’s.

Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase

We can keep this one relatively short as GREATETEEN is the likely winner here.

Of the five runners in the field, FUNAMBULE SIVOLA and MALYSTIC need to find 15 pounds, ELIXIR DE NUTZ 18 pounds, and MORTLACH 32 pounds.

He is a Tingle Creek winner from 2021, and even the form of his 2022 Tingle Creek loss to EDWARSTONE is probably good enough to win here.

Of the rest, FUNAMBULE SIVOLA has been poor this season and probably wants softer conditions, ELIXIR DE NUTZ won’t mind the ground, however, he probably isn’t good enough, the same goes for MORTLACH, and if MALYSTIC can continue his progression, he is probably the one to finish second.

 Our view: Keep it simple - GREANETEEN should win.

Betfair Hurdle

Everyone loves the Betfair Hurdle. The long run-in at Newbury for two-mile specialists, all looking to claim a mountain of money for connections.

It’s a case of ‘how much is the Emmet Mullins thing thrown in by?’ at the top of the market – FILEY BAY was given nine pounds for an eased-down victory at Wincanton lto and should act on the good ground, but you’d have to say there are too many questions for a 3/1 shot.

He is just one of two Irish raiders in the race as Willie Mullins is sending ICARE ALLEN, fourth in the Triumph Hurdle last season, to the race off a mark of 146.

Last year’s winner, GLORY AND FORTUNE, is only five pounds higher than his winning mark last season and he has finished fourth in a Champion Hurdle since – back to hurdles after his short stint over fences will be a positive and good ground should be no issue for him. On paper, he looks to be the best horse in the race.

In what is a great piece of form, NO ORDINARY JOE was ahead of GLORY AND FORTUNE in the 2021 Greatwood Hurdle before the latter won last year’s renewal of the Betfair Hurdle – if you fancy G&F then you would have to give this lad a chance.

At a similar place in the weights, HIGHWAY ONE O TWO for Chris Gordon and Gavin Sheehan bolted up at Ascot off just an eight-pound lower mark and he has since run a fair race to finish third to CONSTITUTION HILL in the Christmas Hurdle – he beat HACKER DES PLACES two starts ago, a horse who won at Cheltenham not, so the form has worked out well.

Our view: Not sure yet.

Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase

In a similar circumstance to the Game Spirit, it looks like only one horse can win this.

JONBON is long odds-on to make it 3/3 over fences before his charge at the Arkle next month at a course he has already won at this season in Warwick.

HADDEX DES OBEAUX will most likely be the best horse he has faced all season and looked very good to win off 136 lto over course and distance, however, if connections want to continue down the handicap route with him this season, they probably won’t want to get too close to JONBON.

With the Arkle picture slightly more open now thanks to DYSART DYNAMO and APPRECIATE IT both firmly being beaten at the DRF, a big performance here from JONBON could see him go clear favourite for the Grade 1 at Cheltenham ahead of EL FABIOLO in the market.

Our view: JONBON by 10 lengths.

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Bumper preview

Newbury 

BGP gambled this race with Dave (Ocean Wind) in 2020.

There’s no OCEAN WIND in this race (he went on the run very well in the Champion Bumper) so it’s a case of finding the winner from a bad bunch.

This is so competitive and bar BRAVE JEN, they’re all winners. Fergals bang in form and I quite like his top of the market at 3/1 tbh.

Fergal has been targeting bumpers the last few years so you know this would have been the long term plan for GO TO WAR. He did it easily enough lto and is reasonably well related (half to FLIGHT DECK) and by SOLDIER OF FORTUNE who produce good bumper runners.

The main danger imo is FIRE FLYER. At 3’s and 10/3 respectively, you can play both or wait for the market to shape and follow money but I’d still side with Fergal’s.

Warwick 

Like the Newbury bumper (and as I said before) this market is headed by a SOLDIER OF FORTUNE in Alan Kings FAVOUR AND FORTUNE. He’s the best bred in this race being a half the DREAL DEAL so improvement is expected.

There’s a bit of FAME AND GLORY blood in this race coming from the dam sire of Longsdon’s but he’s unraced so we’re guessing. He’s 4 though meaning big weight allowance and could run well if that bumper blood shines.

I think SOLDIER OF FORTUNE could land the bumper daddy double today in GO TO WAR and FAVOUR AND FORTUNE. 

Risk on

15.45 HARTUR D’OUDAIRIES