Equinties - the weekender

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Gm EquinautsYesterday was a wholesome day. A big thank you to the Intern for getting a newsletter out yesterday while I went to check on the portfolio. 

What's the portfolio? 

It's young stock the BGP Capital, the racing club affiliated to this newsletter, purchased at the Yearling sales last year in order to break, train and race this season. It's looking bullish.

Now, it's Saturday. LFG!

There is a sh*t load of racing on today, you don't need to back them all. 

Place your bets and play the TOTE Fantasy to cage the chimp. Build your stable and add it to our League using code QHZ36G.

Now, let’s dive in. 

Big race previews

14.30 Gr2 Greenlands Stakes 

It’s good ground at the Curragh today, that means anything will go on it and a straight eight take their chance in the Greenlands over 6f.

The warm favourite at the head of affairs is GARRUS for Charlie Hills – he is the top rating of the field having won lto at Newmarket. Looking purely at the form from that race, the late CREATIVE FORCE had an off day, COMMANCHE FALLS has only ever won handicaps (and was 0-4 in level-weights races coming into the contest), and TIBER FLOW is yet to show himself as a true Graded star. 

His third to HIGHFIELD PRINCESS in August is probably decent form but he (or his trainer) is inconsistent. 

ART POWER is another that falls into that 'inconsistent' bracket having failed to win since his run at the Curragh last September (six runs ago). Will the return to the scene of the crime reignite his engine?

His Curragh record two from two and has had a pipe opener to get him right for today, that said the drift to 7/2 is rough viewing for those who liked 2/1.

TWILIGHT JET is the interesting horse of the contest, for the even more 'interesting' owner, Michael Iavarone. Check this guy out:

TWILIGHT JET was last on his last two starts in the July Cup and Commonwealth Cup, though trainer Michael O’Callaghan revealed he scoped dirty after his run at Royal Ascot. 

The form with PERFECT POWER, BAYSIDE BOY (a future QEII winner), and LUSAIL has him bang there (if not the best) on form and his fto record is decent, so connections will be hoping for a good run today. 

And at a dirty ew price, the form of last week’s Listed Sole Power Sprint Stakes is going to be tested as MOSS TUCKER, second to the impressive LADIES CHURCH, is reappearing just six days after the run. LADIES CHURCH is 16/1 for the King’s Stand, so a decent showing here will help their Royal Ascot aspirations for last week’s winner. 

Verdict: TWILIGHT JET has finished last the last twice and ART POWER hasn't been in form since his Curragh win last September and that wont have been by design. GARRUS is the obvious first choice and is the in form horse to beat. 

15.00 Sandy Lane Stakes

It’s fair to say whoever wins this will be favourite for the Commonwealth Cup. The best 2yo last year was LITTLE BIG BEAR. His win in the Phoenix Stakes was spectacular. He has to overcome a poor performance in the Guineas, but that was on soft ground and over a mile. It was a non event. Frankie in the stirrups today.

BRADSELL has won us a bit money in the past and we liked him last time out but we shouldn’t have been so loyal. He looked in need of a run and it showed. The LITTLE BIG BEAR has had the better of him before but he got injured in that race. 

COLD CASE is the fly in the ointment. Surely he’ll hit the frame and at 5/1 with 8 runners that looks a good bet. He won in some style at Ascot when beating BRADSELL. That was after 200 plus days off over winter, he could equally come on for that run. His family is all speed and he’s by SHOWCASING whose a quality stallion. 

HARRY ANGEL won this in 2017 and his son AL DASIM takes his chance today. Trained by Boughey to win a smart Gr3 in Meydan this year and he comes here off a break from his 7th position in the Gr1 Al Quoz. He had LADIES CHURCH behind him who has since won a Gr2 in Ireland.

MATILDA PICOTTE was third in the 1000 Guineas, so drops in trip today. She has a bit to find on ratings and would prefer softer conditions. MILL STREAM was a close second to NOBLE STYLE at Newmarket last year, but NOBLE STYLE was coming back from a break otherwise that is too class form. He was fourth in the Acomb stakes over 7f, but Jane Chapple-Hyam obviously sees him as a sprinter. 

SHOULDVEBEENARING is by HAVANA GREY and trained by Hannon. He’s already ran the 5 times this year and this is his Cup final. He’s battle hardened but simply might not be up to this test. Lastly, THE RIDLER won the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot last year at 50/1, but has since showed that he might be out of his depth here.

Verdict: COLD CASE is screaming out for an eachway bet at 5/1. He looks better than ever and the in form horse for the in form trainer Karl Burke has the potential to win. LITTLE BIG BEAR and BRADSELL are definitely feared most, but they still have their questions to answer.  

15.30 Gr2 Temple Stakes 

There is a big field of 14 for the Temple Stakes and it is 4/1 the field – yuk. Just not our cup of tea tbh but we'll still try find the winner.

THE PLATINUM QUEEN is making her first start for a new owner, Roger Varian, and as a three-year-old with Hollie Doyle retaining the ride. 

She was a revelation after Royal Ascot last year and she won three races, including a Group 1 and placed in two other Group races before selling for 1.2 million at the sales and she is an interesting runner carrying 9-0. 

Interestingly, she is 0-2 against DRAMATISED having been beaten by the Karl Burke runner at Royal Ascot off and soundly beaten at the Breeders’ Cup off level weights – she now has to give DRAMATISED five pounds and the SHOWCASING filly is very good fresh, so at 6/1, she has to be considered. 

TWILIGHT CALLS, one of the more experienced runners, was second to NATURE STRIP in the King’s Stand two starts ago and made a solid reappearance at Newmarket lto on soft ground (not ideal) – he progressed well last season and looks dangerous today. 

A big talking horse last year was ROYAL ACLAIM having won three races in a row between late May and early July. 

 She then went to York and was beaten by HIGHFIELD PRINCESS before her third at Longchamp in a Group 3 – she is obviously good fresh, but is she good enough? Beating MONDAMMEJ by two lengths, albeit impressively, may not be vintage form. 

Verdict: Always happy to take on 3yo sprinters and this is now different, we'll take THE PLATINUM QUEEN on. She was good last year but flattered considering the weight she was carrying. She's on the drift and there has to be a question mark over her name as to whether she's trained on. TWILIGHT CALLS is nothing but a fast ground horse, gets it today. He's proved he's getting better with age and at 11/2 he should be an ew bet to nothing.

15.40 Gr1 Irish 2000 Guineas 

ROYAL SCOTSMAN really makes this race. Take him out of it and this year’s Irish 2000 Guineas is a simply a poor renewal. 

He has run into CHALDEAN twice and we all know how deep that form line is:

Our verdict is always going to be ROYAL SCOTSMAN so we're not even going to waste our breath talking ab out the others.

Verdict: ROYAL SCOTSMAN. ROYAL SCOTSMAN is by GLENEAGLES, a sire we really like. He's got another nice type out today in ROYAL CAPE - a horse we backed at Windsor lto.ROYAL CAPE is a unit and handled the slop easily at Windsor but we think he goes on anything and is better than his current mark. A small GLENEAGLES 25/1 ew double is a play.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

13.55 Curragh

The GAIN Marble Hill Stakes, a Gr 3.

Only 6 go to post and 5 won first time out. This looks a belting race and we might just see the Coventry winner today.  

NOCHE MAGICA is by gun Darley Stallion NIGHT OF THUNDER, he cost £230,000. His dam is a winner at 3 and is a half sister to speed stallion DANDY MAN. He made a very eye catching debut on soft ground pulling away at the end to suggest the extra furlong today won’t pose a problem. He’s a good moving horse so the quicker ground won’t be an issue either. 

Ryan Moore will be aboard DEMOCRACY, he’s a full brother to 4th place Breeders Cup Juv Filly MIDNIGHT MILE. He won over course and distance on debut (heavy), travelled well and pick up nicely. The form is a question mark but he did it well and will improve from the run and the quicker surface. 

HIS MAJESTY is the ride of Wayne Lordan for the Ballydoyle team, the son of NO NAY NEVER cost 325,000gns as a yearling. Big strapping colt who won gamely on debut beating the reopposing VALIANT FORCE in a listed race over 5f. He showed a bit of greeness but was on top at the end. The step up in trip shouldn’t be an issue and the same goes for VF. There’s a big difference in price between the two, not sure that’s justified on the evidence of their debut run. VF should certainly appreciate the quicker going today bring US bred. 

GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS is by BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE who is a good source of speed however not in the same echelons as NO NAY NEVER or NIGHT OF THUNDER. Owned by Theresa Marnane (Breeze Up Consignor Con Marnane Mrs) a shrewd outfit. You might remember DIFFERENT LEAGUE carrying these colours to success at Royal Ascot a few years back. This lad looked up against it on debut running on the near side away from the pace but picked up smartly to beat Jalaybee, the same horse DEMOCRACY beat on debut. 

Verdict: NOCHE MAGICA won his maiden stylishly and he can take this before going on to give ELITE STATUS something to think about at Royal Ascot.  

Risk on

We're going to play small stake singles on the above preview horses (including the 25/1 GLENEAGLES double) and whack them all in a stupid acca too: 

NOCHE MAGICA W, GARRUS W, COLD CASE TP, TWILIGHT CALLS TP and ROYAL SCOTSMAN W pays 83/1.

We're been told to back two at Cartmel:

15.20 A DIFFERENT KIND 

17.05 MARY CASSATT

A DIFFERENT KIND strongest message. Full single on him and small 9/1 double.

This is what the preview horses looks like to place when levered with Brian Hughes' ride:

NOCHE MAGICA W, GARRUS TP, COLD CASE TP, TWILIGHT CALLS TP, ROYAL SCOTSMAN TP and A DIFFERENT KIND W pays 45/1.

Note: Eye's on SMP's ROBUSTO in the 20.10. 7f, 7f, 7f and now up to 1m4. Like all SMP horses, expect a drift so perhaps don't back this now - wait before the off and watch the market.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: