Equinties- the weekender

Gm Equinauts

Some real dross racing today. Now, don’t get me wrong, I love the flat, but it feels like there hasn’t been a good ‘Saturday’ of racing for ages now and there are visible signs of ‘flat fatigue’ amongst the racing Twitter contingent.

That said, let’s dive in.

Headline roundup

Gr3 Prestige Fillies’ Stakes (Goodwood)

Action at Goodwood opens with a Group 3 fillies race over seven furlongs. 2yo fillies…lmao.

This race sees Godolphin’s FAIRY CROSS 7/4, solid at the top of the market (I actually started writing notes for this newsletter on Thursday evening, FAIRY CROSS was 7/2).

She has a lovely pedigree, a DUBAWI out of Group 2-winning mare, DEVONSHIRE, though the Prestige Stakes has yet to be won by either Godolphin, Charlie Appleby, or William Buick – although with the way the boys in blue are going this year, I really don’t think stats matter.

Second place lto in a Listed event at Sandown:

The only unbeaten filly in the line-up (sounds great but she’s only raced once) is BRIGHT DIAMOND for Karl Burke. A prolific trainer when it comes to two-year-olds, he has picked up 27 two-year-old turf winners so far in 2022 from 168 runners and this EL KABEIR filly bolted up by nine lengths lto. This is a big step up from a maiden to a Group 3 contest but hey, Karl won the fucking Chesham with a debutant.

Two horses come into today’s race with established form, QUEEN OLLY and BREEGE. The former was fourth behind MEDITATE at Royal Ascot, who has since won the Gr2 Debutante Stakes at Royal Ascot, and third to MAWJ in the Gr2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes lto.

Royal Ascot fourth in the Albany:

The latter was a staying-on third behind LEZOO over six furlongs at Ascot in the Gr3 Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes – up in distance today and being by STARSPANGLEDBANNER out of a ZOFFANY mare, a sharp seven furlongs could suit her better.

Our view: The squeeze on the fave, FAIRY CROSS is telling, and the yard money is normally bang on. She’ll prefer the rain-softened ground and she’s an improving filly. Stall 5 means she’ll get a nice position in what should be a strongly run race for her to settle and be tough to beat. Are we backing her? Are we fuck.

Beverley Bullet (Beverley)

ITV Racing takes a trip to Beverley for the Bullet later today, a race won by TIS MARVELLOUS 12 months ago - he returns this year having taken a 74-day break and tops the market.

The Bullet today is full of sprinting stars who can’t quite compete on that top level, none more so than Karl Burke’s KORKER - he has been floating between Listed and handicap company and receives a three-year-old allowance today, though he has plenty of potential still to come. His sire began to get better as a three-year-old - he won a Gr3 and Listed event as a 3yo - so he could be the progressive horse in the line-up.

He represents the ROYAL ACLAIM form from the Listed Wall Stakes last month, as does MONDAMMEJ who reappears today - James Tate’s ‘fastest ever horse’ finished sixth in the Gr1 Nunthorpe which is a positive to KORKER’s case.

Wall Stakes:

Interestingly, the race does feature a Group 1 horse in David Barron’s ARECIBO. The Robert Cowell stable form is a worry (1/13) and it has been bad all season - this will be ARECIBO’s easiest test so far this season, can he finally get his head in front?

He has placed in three Group races including the 2021 Gr1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot:

Our view: I really don’t care for races like this tbh.

Gr3 March Stakes (Goodwood)

The Group 3 March Stakes, won by the likes of SIR RON PRIESTLEY and SUBJECTIVIST, has attracted just four entrants this year meaning the Melbourne Cup hopeful, HOO YA MAL, is the 2/7 favourite. Wtf?

HOO YA MAL has almost been a model for consistency this year – third in the Craven, second in the Newmarket Stakes, second in the Derby, and a promising third behind St Leger fave, NEW LONDON lto in the Gordon Stakes but I do feel that every time a Derby horse runs it proves more and more, just how shit this year’s renewal was.

If George Boughey’s TERRITORIES* colt wants to be a live contender for the Melbourne Cup, he needs to be winning this by half the track.

*TERRITORIES has turned out to be a really weird, dual-purpose sire having produced both flat and jumps horses.

HOO YA MAL’s nearest contender is PERFECT ALIBI who is carrying a lower weight than William Buick’s mount but still has to find 15lbs on official ratings.

Newbury success for PERFECT ALIBI:

Our view: I imagine Goodwood are quite upset with this turnout and it really should just be a procession for the fave. They’ll come home in order of pricing.

Listed Hopeful Stakes (Newmarket)

To complete the average weekend of racing in Britain, Newmarket’s six-furlong Hopeful Stakes spearheads the action at HQ and sees Ed Walker’s GREAT AMBASSADOR head the market.

Walker is in some flying form at the moment, 25% SR from 25 runners, and his Exceed And Excel gelding won over course and distance off nearly top weight last year - he beat our boy, JUMBY that day. That’s good form.

The interesting contender is the Crisford’s DANEH who hasn’t been on the track for 364 days. Last seen finishing second to MISE EN SCENE in the Prestige Stakes 12 months ago - she beat PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, the now Gr1 winner, that day and Amo Racing’s HELLO YOU, which is also good form. This Dubawi filly was also third behind OSCULA in France last year, though the step down to six furlongs is questionable given she’ll be racing over 7 and is out of RIZEENA, a Gr1 winner in the 2013 Moyglare Stud Stakes over a mile.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, after his success in the Constantine Handicap seven days ago, SUMMERGHAND is looking to make it a quick-fire double for the David O’Meara team - his record in races directly after a win reads 2/11 although he did win last year’s contest.

Our view: Another fave we can’t get past annoyingly. GREAT AMBASSADOR has found the heat a bit hot in Group races this year and today’s race is a more sensible target. His 6th in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood was ‘eye-catching’ – drawn on the wrong side, missed the break and checked in running, everything was against him that day but still came storming home. If he’s firing on all cylinders, today should be his day.

Gr2 Celebration Mile (Goodwood)

Goodwood’s highlight race of the weekend sees just the five battle it out in the £125,000 Group 2 Celebration Mile, a contest that sees MUTASAABEQ return after a 49-day break looking to bounce back from his Summer Mile heartbreak (we backed the winner ayyoooo).

MUTASAABEQ getting CHINNED in the Summer Mile:

Neither Charlie Hills and Jim Crowley have ever won this race, potentially a bad sign for MUTASAABEQ, but one training team who tasted success in the Summer Mile with CENTURY DREAM in 2020 is Simon & Ed Crisford – they send FINEST SOUND and JADOOMI to this year’s renewal.

The Newmarket-based pair are currently firing in winners at a 33% SR and have two in-form jockeys booked to guide home their chances – William Buick on the former and Andrea Atzeni, a regular rider for the team, on the latter.

Sandwiched by the pair of Crisford runners in the market is the stalwart of the race, David O’Meara’s ESCOBAR, who returns to open Group company after a five-race spell in handicaps. Running in those gross dartboard-inspired silks, the FAMOUS NAME gelding has competed seven times in the last 14 weeks, quite remarkable for a miler – he was last seen running alright in the Clipper Logistics Handicap at the York Ebor meeting, a race won by the well-fancied and well punted, BLUE FOR YOU.

Jockey-cam of BLUE FOR YOU’s incredible win lto (Escobar on his right):

Our view: Hills lot really fancy MUTASAABEQ to go in today. He holds JADOOMI and ESCOBAR on form and I don’t think the others are good enough to win.

At the Curragh

Ireland hosts three Group 3 races today which are all worthy of a small mention.

The 13.55 is for the fillies over a mile and Aidan O’Brien is mob-handed with MAYBE JUST MAYBE, the highest rated on RPRs, and DAME KIRI.

The former was three lengths adrift of MEDITATE in the Debutante Stakes over seven furlongs - she looked to be a little outpaced that day and being out of a Galileo mare, the step up to a mile may be preferred.

On RPRs, LA DOLCE VITA could be the one to serve it up to Aidan O’Brien’s LORD KANALOA colt - her pedigree, a CARAVAGGIO out of a FASTNET ROCK mare, means she could benefit from the step up in trip today but her form is nothing to shout about.

35 minutes later, we are treated to another Gr3 two-year-old event, this time over a mile - Jessica Harrington’s OCEAN QUEST, an offspring of the promising sire SIOUX NATION, steps up to a mile after a good third lto over six furlongs at Naas.

As with the race prior, Aidan O’Brien sends a pair of runners: the €160,000 TIGER PAW and DOWER HOUSE, a full-sister to two Gr1 winners - the siblings in question are CLEMMIE and most notably CHURCHILL, a double Guineas successor as well as a Dewhurst victor.

Naas success for DOWER HOUSE:

Finally, the 15.40 on the card is the Snow Fairy Stakes for the older fillies.

JUNCTURE for Juddmonte has seen sustained support since the markets opened - she opened up at 2/1 and is now just a shade of evens. And you can see why, she is already a Listed winner and has placed in two Gr3 races, the first of which she beat SEISAI who she reopposes today.

Patton Stakes win:

SEISAI, a GLENEAGLES filly, has improved considerably since that run - she went on to finish good second lto in the Gr2 Kilboy Estate Stakes lto:

Risk on

15.25 BON RETOUR

The yard are gambling this lad. Full bet at 15/8.

15.35 MUTASAABEQ

For reason in the preview, this lad should be tough to beat today. Only 11/10 though, so if you want to lever tf up, WISE EAGLE might be good for it in the 18.20 or CELL SA BEELA in the 16.20 who there’s strong word for.

22.05 BROOME

This lad reps Ireland over in Saratoga tonight. The locals have a strong hand with Chad Brown

Finndog’s NAP and Nb is KAATIB in the 19.05 and THE GREY MONTY in the 17.05 respectively.