Equinties - the weekender

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Today marks the start of Q2 and the first day of the Flat season proper.

Q1 was pretty fucking big, let make Q2 even better.

But before we get started, join our TOTE FANTASY stable.

Basically, you get given a starting pot, you purchase your string of horses to create your 'stable' and then all the results are posted in a league table.

It's a clever way to win big money from a £7 entry fee and because its the TOTE, the pot grows the more people play. No brainer.

Why play? East. It stops your chimp going mad betting on every race on a Saturday while still having a big interest in the races. It's a fucking clever concept and wont lie, I wish I came up with it.Join here and enter QHZ36G to find our stable:

Now, lets dive in. 

Big race previews

Brocklesby Stakes

The Brocklesby kicks us the first race of the UK Flat Turf season proper and as most readers of this newsletter know, we're going for the hattrick.

It’s going to be a certified bog today and there a fuck all vibes going around for the race because of it. You’re going to need horses that can run through a ploughed field - ready to go, sharp but with stamina. Here’s the blood preview from top of betting down:

VALADERO is the Amo Racing representative this year having won it with PERSIAN FORCE last year – connections had three entered at the five-day stage but he gets the nod.

He’s a STARSPANGLEDBANNER 250,000euros yearling and he tends to have his offspring develop later in their career – interesting to see how he is fto.

Like last year, Amo’s has been smashed. Expensive yearling, fine probably best horse in race in time but I think he will get stuck in the mud and a friend who has sat on it assures me he’s to take on. 

LOADED GUN comes next in the market for Andrew Balding by first-season sire MAGNA GRECIA, a winner of the Vertem Futurity.

MAGNA GRECIA’s only runner on the track so far, MYCONIAN, won on very soft over in France, a good omen for LOADED GUN and his dam won, TEMERITY, won a novice event at Ayr on soft.

Baldings lot think this one is a little rocket, beating all their early ones at home. Ground is the big Q for them… and me. I’m not sure if a MAGNA GRECIA will be best in it but dam side is fine. If he's as good as they think, then he should go well.

Burkes INDICATION CALL won’t got in it imo.

He's by first season sire SOLDIERS CALL and is the only other short-priced runner in the field. SOLDIERS CALL was also a high-class two-year-old on the track but was best fair on fast ground. His dam sire FROZEN POWER wouldn’t fill you with much hope on soft ground either.

Channel Racing looked to have their money down on Brislands DODDIES IMPACT overnight. Named after the late rugby player DODDIE WEIR, this chap will be fine in deep ground. In fact the deeper the better. Connections has 3rd JIFFY LAD last year so will know what they have and the money placed should be fairly accurate.

Quinn’s SANKARI might cope with it. Probably finish top 5?

Dascombes drifting which is bearish for Brocklesby and I’d say needs better ground?

David Evans can get one ready, good trainer but don’t know how desirable a ped PART TIME BRITAIN has (MASSAAT unknown but did go in soft). If he’s got ability, possibly another top 5 finish. 

TEES DOUGE for Adrian Nicholls has the best pedigree for a heavy ploughed field. By DREAM AHEAD, a Middle Park winner on soft before finishing seven lengths behind FRANKEL on Good to Soft in the Dewhurst over seven furlongs.

His dam sire is ROCK OF GIBRALTAR, a horse who raced eight times as a two-year-old and swooped up the Gimcrack, Grand Criterium, and Dewhurst with the final two of them coming in slower conditions.  We had a long chat with Adrian yesterday, he’s better and more forward than their last years fourth in MASCAPONE who finished a neck down from Brislands. You'd think if balding trained it he’d be shorter than 10's. 

The rest can’t win. 

Our view: Balding's LOADED GUN could trot up if getting ground with DODDIES IMPACT and TEES DOUGE finsihing in the top 4 or 5.

Brocklesby NAP is TEES DOUGE 2/1 top 5  

Listed Cammidge Stakes

The first Listed race of the day at Doncaster is the Cammidge and 12 go to post in the mud – beautiful.

EL CABALLO tops the market and his form is obvious – he went six in a row before his disappointment at Royal Ascot but being by HAVANA GOLD, the ground might be an issue, especially given this is his first run for a long time. Take on. 

ASJAD is weird as on pedigree, being an IFRAAJ, you'd think he'd want top of the ground, however, he did win on soft last season – his form when fresh is decent so he could be interesting.

The money horse is Karl Burke’s FAST RESPONSE having been 12/1 ante-post before the big move into 11/2 – he won nicely over course and distance lto when considerably wrong at the weights with ART POWER and COMMANCHE FALLS in behind and she receives two pounds from the rest of the field here.

Ground will be fine and she should be right there but like Burkes other runner, he's missing a prep run and might lack fitness?

Contrary to her pedigree, a real slop lover is VADREAM. Highlighting this mare as she's had a run only 2 weeks ago so wont be lacking fitness and I think that could prove and edge today.

Our view: all the horses running today are here for the pots so will all go for it despite the ground being less the ideal for the vast majority. In fact, I think the weather is a total disaster for most. We'll hang our hats on VADREAM 12's who is fit and wont mind the mud.

The Lincoln Handicap

The big handicap of the day and the first big handicap of the flat season is the Lincoln and there are a few stats to note coming into the contest.

There are big talking horses this year – AL MUBHIR for Shaggas, AWAAL for the Crisfords, and WANEES for Hills - but  Shaggas’ other runner shouldn't be discounted who has a chance too. 

MONTASSIB showed his best form on soft ground when winning a Goodwood Handicap off 87 on soft before finishing a close fifth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and two good runs at Newmarket and Ascot after that.

His first run over a mile was behind WANEES on Good to Soft lto when giving eight pounds away – the swing in the weights is now two pounds and off 98, he could still have a few pounds up his sleeve.

At similar prices, MIGRATION for David Menuisier could have his preferred conditions today.

He won at Goodwood on heavy and has performed on Good to Soft as well – he was second to MODERN NEWS, a Group runner in the 110s for Godolphin, in the Spring Cup Handicap last year on his first start of the season and Benoit De La Sayette takes off three pounds today.

Similar nods to form on soft ground would go to ATRIUM, a winner in a big-field handicap over course and distance in September, however, his previous form would suggest he needs to come on for the run.

Our view: we really couldn't give af about this race tbh. Most of the horses need better ground so we're not going to hang our hat on anything. 

Listed Doncaster Mile

The Listed Doncaster Mile caps off the strong action up north today and there is a warm favourite for Simon & Ed Crisford in POKER FACE – he is unbeaten so far and won on Good to Soft ground lto.

FASTNET ROCK as his sire would suggest he will be good on soft ground and he is out of a GALILEO mare – strong chance here in Listed company.

Shant go in to the others, apparently he's the only one you need for this race.

Our view: POKER FACE just wins apparently.

JOIN OUR LEAGUE

• Tote Fantasy is the newest Tote product and is a cross between Fantasy football and Placepot where you pick a selection in each of the 7 featured races every day.

• Players pick their ‘stable/team’ of seven horses over seven races within a theoretical 10,000 guineas budget. It costs €/£7 per stable entry, customers can enter as many stables as they wish, the cost of entries funds the prize pool.

• It’s a bit of a puzzle to build your stable as you can’t just pick all the favourites. Horses cost what their perceived chance of winning is, for example Constitution Hill will be 6,000 Guineas and would blow all your Budget.

• Your stable score points depending on where your horse finishes in the race, plus how you use your two boosts for double points.

• You accumulate points through the afternoon with the top 25% of entries taking home profit whilst first place scoops the jackpot.

Risk on

We're playing the Brocklesby bets and POKER FACE in the 16.10. 

16/1 NAP will be dm'd to those who join our TOTE FANTASY league. Just sign up, join our league using code QH736G and show us on twitter.

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