Equinties - the weekender

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MAWJ looked good in the Jumeirah Fillies Guineas yesterday. Next stop the real one? 

Progressive last season, she seems to have trained on very well since her last run in Europe in September 2022. She has now won twice in Meydan for Saeed Bin Suroor. 

Weekend preview

Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle

Eight head to post for the only juvenile hurdle on the card at Kempton tomorrow and the market is headed by SCRIPTWRITER. 

He has won once around Cheltenham this season and could only muster second lto to the highly progressive COMFORT ZONE - Milton Harris blames the ride for his loss lto, today will find out if that was true. 

He will have to defend against Irish raider NUSRET for Joseph O’Brien. 

Plenty thought he could have been a Triumph Hurdle horse this season but his performance behind LOSSIEMOUTH told a different story - technically he is three pounds better off at the weights over SCRIPTWRITER and he has been backed in from 6/1 to 3’s. 

These two set the standard at the top of the market, but RARE MIDDLETON for Paul Nicholls is extremely interesting having been properly hammered in the market lto.

He won very cosily lto by just three quarters of a length having won a maiden on the flat two starts ago and today is very much the litmus test. 

Our view: SCRIPTWRITER is clear on numbers and it's quite hard to see past this lad who'll be going for the Triumph in a couple of weeks but, that said, and despite his pedigree (I dont like it for NH), the price of Nicholls' RARE MIDDLETON scares me. He was >200k...they wouldn't have gone to that much for no reason, even in a 'bubble'. A watch for me.

Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase 

Just the five are set to head under starter’s orders for the Pendil today, but there are plenty to be interested in. 

BOOTHILL has clear form with JONBON this season having lost to him in the Henry VIII at Sandown in December, however, he was beaten by TOMMY’S OSCAR lto which is slightly worrying. 

TOMMY’S OSCAR is a good one, but he is exposed at Grade 1 level and BOOTHILL has sketchy form over 2m4f, having lost over the distance off a mark of 132 in his hurling career. There are plenty of questions about him today. 

So where do you look to beat him? 

DATSALRIGHTGINO ran a belting race lto to only just fall short to STAGE STAR, a Challow Hurdle winner who was rated 142, at Cheltenham - whether he can step up to Grace 2 company today is unknown, though connections have sent him into this grade rather than a handicap, which could be interesting. 

Of the rest, SOLO runs for the first time since his wind op though this company looks a bit hot for him. 

Our view: The two market leaders have form lines through AUCUNRISQUE and BOOTHILL comes out on top. The trip ? stops him from being a good bet.

Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle

Some people aren't impressed with this line up. Perhaps they have a point.

We’ll keep this short because despite it appearing a trappy little race, there's strong vibes coming from the Moore yard for thiers. 

HANSARD is the short-priced favourite having not beaten too much - he won nicely lto but if you are one for form, he hasn’t beaten much (he beat MASTER CHEWY lto who was then well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle). 

The same lack of form goes for RUBAUD, the second favourite. 

He was second to RARE EDITION two starts ago, however, he has done no favours to his Supreme chances by losing lto, making the form look worse. 

RUBAUD is another who finished low down in the Betfair Hurdle field, so can he bounce back? 

This race could be set up for Olly Murphy’s UKANTANGO, a proper good ground horse. Ignoring his run in the Tolworth lto when it was too soft, he was a good second in the Supreme Trial, form that has been backed up by SPRINGWELL BAY, and he has won a few times on good ground this year. 

Our view: it's a pretty low grade affair and doesn't leave many to take on the gambled fave who apparently just wins. Should UKANTANGO return to his form from the early parts of the season can see him outrun his odds and give the Moore yard most to think about.

Eider Handicap Chase

We will just give a small mention to the Eider Chase at Newcastle as Christian Williams is set to run the extremely well-handicapped KITTY’S LIGHT. 

Second in the Coral Trophy off 140 and second in the Scottish National off 143 last season puts his right there, though he hasn’t won since March 2021. If everything goes right, he most probably wins. 

MIGHTY THUNDER and SAM’S ADVENTURE join him in the well-handicapped category, whereas EVA’S OSKAR for Tim Vaughan is progressive and has Grand National aspirations. 

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Bumper preview 

Chepstow

This is a really tough bumper to read, no doubt with many good horses to come out of this. BEAT THE BAT is the uneasy fave and he's by a proper sire but the dam line is weak so I'll be taking him on. He has form with Hendo's CHOCCABLOC, Hendo's are normally ready first time up so will be taking him on too. That's two out the picture imo. 

JJ's CAWTHORNE BANKER is looking exposed without winning so he's the third im drawing a line through. Mad given he's run to >100 which is good for bumpers... you can see why this is a tough bumper!

HOME FREE for big John Magnier is interesting back out again. He's out of rubbish mare tbh but she's related to good flat horses. I think with the better ground and a run under his belt, you'd expect improvement. 

It would be nice to see Curtis' face on tv today and she's got a chance in this. Her runner IDEFIX DE CIERGUES needs good ground which he gets today and the dam side is one of the strongest in this race. 

Olly Murphys LE BON VIVANT is unraced but has a great pedigree, the dam a half to SENTRY DUTY rated 100 on flat and 160 over fences.

Without any info (I like to know if theyre trying etc), on blood only I like Magniers HOME FREE and LE BON VIVANT at a big price. Both ew plays.

Newcastle

Bumper to open the Newcastle card... a disgrace, bumpers should be the last race of the day to chase the losses! (chimp joke). 

Greatrex heads the market here in this weak mares race. She's related to the yards top chaser LA BAGUE AU ROI but carries a penalty for her good win lto. I think Greatrex has found another shit race for ICI LA REINE and I can see her bolting up in this even with the suitcase she carries. 

Kempton

Another tough bumper to read. One for the oldies, BROOK BAY from the same family as the legend Dessie! His sire AFFINSEA is a bit of an unknown but he's a half to SOLDIER OF FORTUNE who is fast turning into the new king of bumpers.

EMAILANDY for Nicholls is nicely bred on the dam side being a half to CHARBEL and AJERO etc. The sire is a bit weak with perhaps PARRAMOUNT being one of his better bumper progeny. He wears a tongue tie and Nicholls has a 36% sr when using one of his gf's tights. That's bullish. 

I'm not confident with this selection but I'll side with EMAILANDY at the price for Nicholls who continues to be in good form.

Today's best stats

Weird stat for Nicholls using his girlfriend's tights first time up. See bumper preview.

Big stats for Christian Williams sending horses all the way up to Newcastle with KITTYS LIGHT and CAP DU NORD being his best chances. CAP DU NORD out again quickly after last weeks romp, yard have a bullish 40% sr when running them again within 7 days of a win.

Risk On

14.05 LORD NORTH and 15.40 HANSARD 4/1

Shortie double we've been told to back.

15.25 TRAWLERMAN  9/2

Dirty ew play here in a race the Europeans have really started to get stuck into, and for good reason - it's worth 2.5 milli! This chap is an improving stayer and has a great shout to provide Frankie with another flying dismount. 

I think Greatrex in the Newcastle bumper is a knock in if the horse is right.