Equinties - the weekender

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Gm Equinauts

It's Saturday. LFG!

Remember, there's loads of racing on today but you don't have to back them all.

Try the TOTE Fantasy, it helps to cage the emotional chimp shouting at you to BET MORE.

Now, let’s dive in.

Headline round up 

Friday was for the punters

BOOM's could be heard across the country and the first 'banker acca' of the Punchestown Festival was landed.

IMPERVIOUS, STATE MAN and IMPAIRE ET PASSE all obliged in quick succession to land the 2/1 treble for basically anyone that has a betting account.

Punchestown Festival

Grade 1 Mares’ Champion Hurdle 

The first Grade 1 on the final day of Punchestown kicks off with the women and it is a good race.

LOVE ENVOI, second to HONEYSUCKLE at Cheltenham, is back and could get her ground? How was the weather last night? It was yielding yesterday and apparently there are showers in the air and connections fancy her as a very good horse (in the mud).

A lot of today’s field were behind her at Cheltenham but both ECHOES IN RAIN and QUEENS BROOK were the closest that day.

The latter was third and was the most prominent of the field behind these two - she ran on well and franked her form from beating BRANDY LOVE on her start before Cheltenham.

As for the other, ECHOES IN RAIN, she bolted up in March when ridden very cold by Patrick Mullins around the undulating track where not much got into it - the extra three furlongs will suit her very well and she got close to HONEYSUCKLE in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle last year.

Grade 1 Champion Juvenile Hurdle 

Just because they're young, it doesn't mean there's a lack of quality. Cheltenham champ LOSSIEMOUTH represents the best of the form at 8/11 in the market.

She was very keen at Cheltenham but still won extremely well at the finish (we backed her) and although Punchestown may promote more speed than the test of Prestbury Park, she will be tough to beat.

GALA MARCEAU was behind her that day and she is an interesting horse.

She beat her stablemate at the DRF having had a clear run compared to LOSSIEMOUTH and if you look at her Cheltenham performance, she could be a horse to keep on the side of next year - she has plenty of promise but needs to prove her stablemate didn't have an 'off day'.

ENJOY THE DREAM represents the BLOOD DESTINY form line this season having beaten the Willie Mullins gelding after Cheltenham easily - that form may not be as good as once thought though but despite this many of the Mullins camp still rate him.

The one who has to be respected here is ZARAK THE BRAVE, he was beaten by LOSSIEMOUTH before his dangerous battle with Colic and before that he looked extremely good. He has form fresh and could be the unexposed one here.

Grade 1 Celebration Chase 

It’s a big day for Paul Nicholls as he is in search of a record-breaking season in prize money and this Sandown meeting plays a big part in his success.

GREANETEEN leads the line of his 14 runners to try and make it a hat trick on the race this year.

His Sandown record is impeccable though the soft ground may not play to his absolute strengths - knowing Nicholls, he will be trained to the minute to try get as much prize money as possible.

Topping the market, however, is the novice JONBON who is a surprise entry in open company on such soft ground.

His second to EL FABIOLO looks good though and Hendo has been persistent in stating he will get further.

The rest of the field consists of horses who could win, but it would be a big chance to back them to do it and the odds reflect that.

EDITEUR DU GITE is the prime example. A horse who has beaten EDWARDSTONE and ENERGUMENE this season but disappointed at the Festival - slow ground should be fine as his Clarence House win was on soft and the break since Cheltenham should have helped him a lot.

Grade 2 Oaksey Chase

Having recovered from his Cheltenham tip, HEWICK was meant to run in the Punchestown Gold Cup, then the Bet365, and after those of withdrawals owing to ground, he will (or should) run in the Gr2 Oaksey Chase today - bit of a rollercoaster and no doubt a head ache for connections.

He has some good form from the Gold Cup though the form did take a whacking at Punchestown and there has been no secret about him wanting better ground.

SOLO, the novice in the field, won the Pendil Novices Chase lto, a race that has the form franked by DATSALRIGHTGINO.

Nicholls has given a good word for him today with BEAU BALKO and ENRILO and again, all will be prepped for this.

ELDORADO ALLEN is a horse that has been hard to place after his good efforts in Grade 1 company. He runs today off an official mark of 156 over a distance that haven’t been tried since his 2022 Ryanair, so if he performs bad here, a tilt at a handicap could be in the reckoning next year.

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*Discount can be applied on anything except Saxenda. 

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

18.15 Doncaster

THIS IS A F*CKING BELTER.

NOVATION’s dam was Group placed as a 2yo, and she is by KHELEYF who smashed the records for 2yo winners in his first season, he’s also the broodmare sire of TIGGY WIGGY who was electric as a 2yo. NOVATION's sister is NAVELLO who was Listed place as a 2yo. Boughey is 4-26 15% the last 2 weeks, perhaps off the boil for his standards.

BATTAAH is by BLUE POINT who has notched up 4 winners so far. This lad was a 160k yearling, his dam’s sister produced INTENSE FOCUS who won the Dewhurst. Trained by Hannon who won this 2 years ago, s/r 7-54 13%.

SIOUX WARRIOR is by SIOUX NATION and a sister to ROYAL ACLAIM who won the City Of Wall Stakes at York over 5f last year and was Group 3 placed in France over 5f on soft. Charlie Hills trains; 4-16 25% last 2 weeks.

ZIGGY’S DREAM is by INNS OF COURT who is having his first runners this year. Not a great start but this horse is being highlighted for being produced out of the Robson Aguair school, @bgpintern did a thread on him check it out:

ZIGGY’S sister is by Kodiac, she won as a 2yo and his grand dam was champion 2yo in Italy. Alice Haynes trains; 2-16 13%

Risk on

Be careful with betting and staking this weekend, WE HAVE A MAX BET MONDAY. 

14.05 DREAM TOGETHER

Won this race last year off the same mark and the gets quick conditions. Small ew at 5's to find out if its a plot.

14.50 SOLO

Needs HEWICK to underperform but he could be a glorified handicapper. Paul bullish on SOLO and he goes well fresh. Could be a big day for Nicholls as he chases career best prize money. Half bet to win at 4's.

15.00 BLEAK

Fancied lto and step up now probs. Haggas won this race last year. Half bet at 6/4 as dam side a bit weak of winners but this isn't a strong race.

15.40 MAXZENO

A big price here at 11's. We know the breeding to this horse well and she is certainly better bred than her mark. Owned by a friend to BGP, the dam was rated 100 and she's out of DEMORA, also rated 100 and a half to rocket DAZENO (who Mick Appleby also trained).

16.20 DECEIVER

Yard took 8's, we took took 6's and BGP Capital got 11/2 and 4's for a dirty ew play. This is a good horse and well handicapped. He's 10/3 so make your own ew play by half win bet and cover by backing to place at 4/5 or bigger on exchange.

MAXZENO X DECEIVER DOUBLE ew double pays 51/1.

Staking and banking

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: