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Equinties - the Weekender
Gm Equinauts
After a few days of rest after the Boxing Day madness, the newsletter is back and boy is it a good one today.
Let’s dive in.
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HEADLINES
MUDDLING SUPREME FORM
The Christmas period has revealed a few more clues towards the Supreme in three months and there are still a few more clues to be added to the debate from Newbury’s card today with WILLMOUNT and JERIKO DU REPONET.
A few people on Racing X have been talking about the Supreme and why there is no ‘standout’ at the top of the market, but when you dive into the form, it begins to become clearer as to why this is the case.
Let’s take CALDWELL POTTER, who won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle, as an example.
💪 Cracking performance
Relentless from Caldwell Potter who emulates his late brother Mighty Potter with glory in the G1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle
@LeopardstownRC | @gelliott_racing | @jackkennedy15
— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
1:51 PM • Dec 27, 2023
He was impressive on the weekend in what was tough conditions and with his relation to the late MIGHTY POTTER, he is clearly a nice horse.
When you look through his form, he was beaten by STELLAR STORY and ILE ATLANTIQUE in a bumper at Naas, so that would give a nice form boost to the two of those horses, however, STELLAR STORY has been beaten twice in Grade 2 company this season.
Then you look at his debut over hurdles when he was beaten by ITS FOR ME. Willie Mullins’ five-year-old won snugly that day, so that gives him a form boost, but CALDWELL POTTER has run (and won) twice since, and now he is a shorter price in the market for the Supreme than ITS FOR ME.
That piece of form alone is tough to get a head around, and that’s before you consider other Supreme contenders that ran this week like FARREN GLORY, who looked like the winner of the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle before falling, and JANGO BAIE, who actually won the race.
James Bowen wins his FIRST Grade 1! 🙌
JANGO BAIE the inaugural winner of the @WillHillRacing Formby Hurdle!
— Aintree Racecourse (@AintreeRaces)
1:16 PM • Dec 26, 2023
Furthermore, FIREFOX got a form boost due to BALLYBURN’s hugely impressive success yesterday and we haven’t even seen ILE ATLANTIQUE since his Gowran Park success, though he does have an entry for the Lawlor’s Of Naas.
That was tough to write.
So, people of Racing X, if you can get your head around the form and formulate an opinion, this year’s Supreme either looks like a nice market to get some potential value in … or leave well alone and just watch!
GRANGECLARE BEST
As we spoke about in yesterday’s newsletter, GRANGECLARE WEST had good form and could be a much sounder horse this year than he was 12 months ago.
That proved to be correct in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase as he won hard-held under Paul Townend against some proven Graded horses.
Wow ... 👀
Grangeclare West batters into submission Corbetts Cross and Flooring Porter in the @NevilleHotels Novice Chase @LeopardstownRC 👀
An exceptional performance ⭐️
@CPStudOfficial | @WillieMullinsNH | @PTownend
— Racing TV (@RacingTV)
1:55 PM • Dec 29, 2023
As such, he is the new 7/2 favourite for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and on first thoughts, you would have to say yesterday’s form is pretty solid.
Stablemate FACT TO FILE is a general 8/1 chance and, representing the British, STAY AWAY FAY is next best in the market behind GRANGECLARE WEST at 5/1.
One thing to note is STAY AWAY FAY’s form did pick up a small scuff after Boxing Day as GIOVINCO was unfound in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase – he has likely disappointed, but it still doesn’t read well.
Furthermore, GREY DAWNING, who was behind him at Exeter on chase debut, has lost since to GINNY’S DESTINY and the form of his Albert Bartlett victory against AFFORDALE FURY, SANDOR CLEGANE, THREE CARD BRAG, and LETSBECLEARABOUTIT can be questioned.
There’s no doubt that STAY AWAY FAY is a proper horse, but cynical types could look into his form and find a way to take him on come Cheltenham. He is likely to be out soon in either the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase on Trials Day (in open company) or the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase.
✅The G2 Cotswold Chase and G2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase are still the targets for STAY AWAY FAY, Paul Nicholls confirms.
"It'll be one or the other. We'll see what the opposition is, but he'll be ready for the Cotswold Chase."
#HorseRacing | @PFNichollstwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno)
1:37 PM • Dec 27, 2023
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