Equinties - the weekender

Equinties

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Alan King makes EDWARDSTONE a nr and the whole of racing twitter lose their mind. 

WHO GIVES AF?

Work it out, if CONSTITUTION HILL runs, which I don't think he will, has it not occurred to you that EDWARDSTONE might just be being saved for something else? 

And anyway, even if King did genuinely pull EDWARDSTONE out because of the Ascot going (he did mention he had a horse jarr up on it yesterday), then that's his fucking business, well, his and that of the owners...WHO PAY THE BILLS

Right, as I'm just about to send this newsletter out, CONSTITUTION HILL is a non-runner.

Check out Nico's words here. He gets talking about water tables. No, it's not some spring water bottled sponsored sports league, it's the scientific name for basically how much water is contained in the upper surface of the ground. Superficially, the surface might be good or even soft, but the ground below is still hard af. 

Let the trainers do what they need to do.

Anyway, let's dive in

Weekend Preview

It's a great weekend of action across the UK and Ireland over the next couple of days as we are treated to two Grade 1s from Haydock and Punchestown. 

A PLUS TARD, CONSTITUTION HILL, L'HOMME PRESSE, and STATE MAN are all (at the time of writing) making their seasonal reappearances this weekend so let's get stuck in. 

G2 1965 Chase  

The first Graded race of the weekend is the Grade 2 1965 Chase and the UK's leading charge for this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, L'HOMME PRESSE, makes his first start as a second-season chaser. 

Venetia Williams is 0-38 this season and hasn't seen the winner's enclosure since April, though this is probably due to the abnormally fast ground conditions across the country. 

Despite this worrying stat, her seven-year-old two-time Grade 1 winner is 2/2 in races off a long break and has by far the best form in the race - the ground was getting quicker by the second at Ascot yesterday and the course has applied water onto the track overnight.

L'HOMME PRESSE is a proper horse and should take all the beating today, but let's see what he's up against.

DO YOUR JOB a nr (only ran yesterday) and HITMAN off to Haydock, the field is down to three runners with SAINT CALVADOS and COOLE CODY the competition. 

The former began his last two seasons at Kempton in the King George and he ran great races on both occasions - the ride he got from Gavin Sheehan in last year's renewal was what cost him as he hit the front too soon before his run petered out.  

Freshness is the key to this nine-year-old (he won on his seasonal reappearance in 2017, 2018, and 2019 and he was second to MIN in the 2020 Ryanair following a 71-day break) so he should run a big race and the booking of David Maxwell means you are probably getting a bigger price about SAINT CALVADOS as well, despite his handicap... WHAT? I love David Maxwell but you cant tell me he's not a fucking handicap. 

While we're on the subject of handicappers...COOLE CODY. He's a smart handicapper that is simply rated too high for handicaps following his Festival win last season so the Graded route is now the only option to bring his weight down.

G2 Coral Hurdle 

The Grade 2 Coral Hurdle has been at the centre of news and speculation all week as we are still yet to know if potentially the sport's best horse, CONSTITUTION HILL, will go under starter's orders. 

This horse needs no introduction - unbeaten under rules, a monster on debut at Sandown, followed up by a brilliant run in treacherous conditions in the Grade 1 Tolworth, and a record-smashing time in the Supreme Hurdle on decent ground when he was last seen.  

However, following 'good racing ground' at Ascot yesterday, trainer Nicky Henderson told Sky Sports Racing that he will take "no risks" as to whether his star hurdler will run.  

Rightly or wrongly, despite the official going reading good to soft, Ascot Racecourse has decided to turn the taps on and water the course overnight, seemingly to please Mr Henderson.  

The long and short of it is: Henderson is always looking out for the safety of his horses, there can be no question about that. This winter has been dryer than usual and the 44mm of rain that has touched the ground this week has probably been soaked up better than what would usually happen at this time of the year. 

However, it is worrying that a course has had to water on Good to soft ground - let Henderson do whatever he wants with his horses, he isn't stupid and they will get a sufficient amount of runs into CONSTITUTION HILL before the big Spring target of the Champion Hurdle, but why is a track watering on ground that was perfect yesterday?  

It does look bad that a course is watering based on the comments of one trainer about one horse despite it potentially rubbing other trainers and connections up the wrong way, as it has done with Paul Nicholls. 

Anyway, if Hend's beast does turn up tomorrow, Olly Murphy's BREWIN'UPASTORM looks to be the next best in the market, a horse who unshipped his rider at the first hurdle lto (we backed him that day ffs). 

This is his first run right-handed since his 11l win in a handicap at Taunton eight starts ago and he already has one race victory over GOSHEN in the bag after his Lingfield success last season - is he the horse who could pick up the pieces for second place or even win it if CH doesn't run? Yep, probaby. 

As for the rest, GOSHEN returns to hurdles following his disappointing run over fences last month, a race he finished a distant third.  

Chasing will be reverted to after today for the livewire but back on a right-handed course and over hurdles, his first run in these conditions since his brilliant win in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle in February should suit perfectly. 

Our view: We'd all love to see a great race between these stars for CONSITUTION HILL to then really turn it on in the last home straight. Ascot knows it's what's going to sell tickets, hence the watering. BREWIN' to run a massive race in behind.

G1 Betfair Chase 

The first Grade 1 contest of the NH season beckons today as the Betfair Chase at Haydock takes centre stage with five going to post - let's take a moment to remember one of the great performances in this race, KAUTO STAR in 2011. 

Looking to be the fifth horse to win this race more than once, A PLUS TARD returns to Haydock following his demolition job last year. 

A subsequent Savills Chase runner-up and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Henry de Bromhead's eight-year-old has been slowly drifting in the market despite still being odds-on - is this a walkover for him this year or are there horses here who could upset the party? 

One horse who did not finish behind A PLUS TARD last year was Joe Tizzard's ELDORADO ALLEN, a horse that has already been seen this season when second behind BRAVEMANSGAME in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase. 

The eight-year-old grey has been hard to knock since his Grade 2 Denman Chase success last season and his last six races have seen him perform to RPRs of 160+, bar his disappointment in the Betway Bowl. Is 20/1 too big for him? 

PROTEKTORAT is another who didn't run in last year's renewal of the race and has seen good progression for Dan Skelton over the last 12 months - a fast-finishing second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off top weight and a 25l victory in the Many Clouds Chase were some of his highlights.  

The icon of the race, BRISTOL DE MAI, makes his sixth outing in the Betfair Chase today in his bid to level KAUTO STAR's record of four successes. 

Let's remember his big win in 2017 when he ran to an RPR of 182 to beat CUE CARD. 

Now an 11-year-old, the Haydock specialist could be making his last appearance in this race having been on a slight decline in recent years. Go well, boy! 

FRODON completes the line-up for Paul Nicholls though the softer ground at Haydock may cause him to have issues - remember, he was diverted away from the Down Royal Champion Chase due to slow conditions. 

Our view: Having spanked PROTEKTORAT at the festival, the only way A PLUS TARD doesn't win is if he gets stuck in the mud (his drift might even mean he doesn't line up). Now he's matured, PROTEKTORAT looks to be a heavy ground specialist but Haydock have confirmed the ground is only soft and drying all the while - perhaps not enough to blunt the speed of de Bromhead's fave. A race to enjoy imo. 

G1 Morgiana Hurdle

The Grade 1 'Willie Mullins' Morgiana Hurdle rounds off the weekend as five have been declared for the contest on Sunday.  

Mullins has won this race 11 times and he has three horses in the line-up this year. 

STATE MAN tops the market on his first run at two miles since he bolted up in the County Hurdle off 141 at the Cheltenham Festival - currently 10/1 for this year's Champion Hurdle, a bold showing tomorrow is needed to show his claims for the big one in four months' time. 

He continued his progression at the Punchestown Festival last season to beat FLAME BEARER over 2m3f in the Champion Novice Hurdle and he is the class act of the field. 

Last year's winner SHARJAH is back after nearly a year off the track to defend his title under Patrick Mullins - he is a horse who loves Punchestown (second to HONEYSUCKLE last year and he beat FAUGHEEN in this race in 2018) and will be primed for today. 

The shortest-priced non-Willie Mullins horse is TEAHUPOO, owned by Robcour - he beat DARASSO comfortably last season and was sent off 9/1 for the Champion Hurdle before he bombed out and finished last.  

A horse who relishes races when fresh, he beat the Triumph Hurdle winner QUILIXIOUS by a winding 12 lengths in the Grade 3 Fishery Lane Hurdle last year on yielding ground and could be a player in this line-up. 

Our view: Without material interest in the race, SHARJAH has got to be the pick for it. He's a legend for the yard and this is HIS race. The young pretenders have him all to beat.

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Risk on

Venetia isn't struggling for winners, it'll be calculated. When she shoots, she rarely misses. 

I think..slash I hope, she has her first winner of this season today.

12.40 ACHILLE 7/1

I love him. He was a plot for the midlands national and I'm sure would have won had the jocks stirrups not snapped. He was travelling well on the outside (confident ride!) and unbelievably he’s been dropped for that. 

Venetia has been hitting the crossbar recently but ACHILLE might just be her first winner today. He's 12 but still full of running as seen lto and given he probably won't get into the Welsh National next month, today could be his swan song. 

14.40 BREWIN'UPASTORM

He was our NAP a few weeks ago before he spooked at a white hurdle. He only has GOSHEN to beat and is a great play at even money. 

15.15 BOOTHILL

We're found reasons to take on SO SCOTTISH and think BOOTHILL is better than the field so naturally makes him a play at 3/1.

17.00 THE LAMPLIGHTERFOXY RASCAL to beat, who we've backed before but Bougheys yard hit and miss atm. We think THE LAMPLIGHTER is a solid ew to nothing at 5's.