Equinties - weekender

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

I’m going to kick this newsletter off with a thank you. A thank you to every one of you who has put your trust in BGP Capital and become a member. It’s going to be some club.

Now, let's dive in.

Saturday preview

Saturday definitely feels like Saturday today with the brace of Group 1s for 2yo’s today; the Cheveley Park for Fillies and the Middle Park for colts.

But first, one for the boys.

Gr2 Royal Lodge Stakes 

Just the four runners are heading to post for the Gr2 Royal Lodge Stakes over the straight mile at Newmarket (snooze) – FLYING HONOURS currently tops the market at 4/9 (double snooze) to try and make up for last year’s dramatic finish involving the late Guineas hero COROEBUS.

This two-year-old son of SEA THE STARS bolted up by five lengths in the Listed Stonehenge Stakes 36 days ago – the second, STORMBUSTER, has since danced in off a mark of 92 at Newbury and the sixth, CRACKOVIA, finished a close second in a Listed event over in France recently, both franking the form for FLYING HONOURS.

Both trainer Charlie Appleby (0-2) and William Buick (0-6) are yet to taste success in the race, but this colt out of POWDER SNOW, a Gr3 winner on heavy over in France, will be tough to beat.

Aidan O’Brien made it back-to-back victories in this race in 2018 and 2019 with MOHAWK and ROYAL DORNOCH, he sends GREENLAND to the contest this year.

By SAXON WARRIOR out of a Listed-winning mare in AKTORIA, he finally got off the mark at Roscommon last month in a fairly average seven-furlong race – his pedigree and previous second over a mile suggest that today’s step up in trip should be fine, though Ryan Moore’s mount has to find 10lbs on official ratings.

The other two can’t win.

Our view: I reckon the market has it bang on and they all finish in corresponding order.

Gr1 Cheveley Park Stakes 

It’s strange seeing a Gr1 without Appleby represented, but Saaeed has c&d winner, MAWJ for the boys in blue. Her price shows the depth of these races, this age 2 winner is double-figure odds!

Top of the market is held by MEDITATE for AOB and TRILLIUM for Hannon’s yard. Between them they’ve been smashing track records, winning at Royal Ascot and popping the dreams of other fillies.

MEDITATE, for AOB (who won this race last year w/ TENEBRISM) is really impossible to knock however if you’re super critical, the Debutante stakes isn’t exactly working out well AND she was put in her place LTO, albeit by a horse for Weld who looks a fucking monster.

LEZOO will notch a big win for her sire Zoustar, who has his first 2yo’s this year. Group 3 winners JULIET SIERRA and TREASURE TROVE might well have to improve. SWINGALONG came to life winning the Gr2 Lowther at York, but had previously found TRILLIUM too quick, so can you draw a line through her?

Our View: Unlike NOSTRUM and COMMISSIONING, most of these fillies have shown their talents a fair bit on the track (apart from JUILET SIERRA) they’ve all ran 4 or more times.

MAWJ might be the speccy eachway play, she was beaten by MEDITATE at Royal Ascot but beat LEZOO in the Gr2 Duchess Of Cambridge. AOB and Ballydoyle rarely miss their targets at this level, and MEDITATE was all the rage before bumping into one.

Our vote goes to MEDITATE. In fact, Coolmore quite bullish today on the HISPANIC, ADELAIDE RIVER and MEDITATE treble.

Gr1 Middle Park Stakes

Last but certainly not least, the final Group 1 race of the day is the Middle Park Stakes and it’s ante-post time baby.

Over a month ago, we recommended MARSHMAN at 20/1 for this race before he finished second to NOBLE STYLE in a very hot renewal of the Gr2 Gimcrack.

Following NOBLE STYLE’s scratching from this race earlier this month, the Karl Burke-trained son of HARRY ANGEL is now the 9/4 favourite. WOOF.

COLD CASE, third in the Gimcrack, has since come out to win a nice 2yo race at Doncaster which further boosts his claims for today.

Good luck to all who are on at the big prices.

So who does MARSHMAN have to beat today?

Aidan O’Brien’s BLACKBEARD brings the established Group 1 form to the table, making him the 3/1 second favourite.

Another one who is by NO NAY NEVER, BLACKBEARD beat PERSIAN FORCE, who he reopposes today, and stablemate THE ANTARCTIC comfortably in the Gr1 Prix Morny 34 days ago, despite some unusual pre-race antics.

These two set the standard today in what should be a belting race.

Alternatively, Godolphin’s MISCHIEF MAGIC is the progressive horse in the lineup. On a hot streak of three victories, this EXCEED AND EXCEL colt stepped up to Group 3 company effortlessly 21 days ago in the Sirenia Stakes on the all-weather.

Our view: LETS GO MARSHMAN!

Risk on

13.43 MULLENBEG

Today's leverage. Bumper form fucks. Owners probably book end the card really.

14.18 CAPE HELLES

I thought Bex’s would be a banker in this given what he did lto, but strong whispers for McCains and Hughes’. Have to trust it as I don’t like Australia’s (I think they’re yaks) but apparently this is nice.

14.25 MEDITATE

For reasons in preview. Full bet.

15.00 MARSHMAN (ante-post)

15.40 BELL ROCK & INJAZATI

Not really a heavy betting proposition but some on twitter asked us for a pick in the big (numbers wise) race of the day. Fellowes is a big plotter and his lad looks cheated with. And BELL ROCK is just a good horse.