Equinties - the weekender

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Yesterdays results proved it was worth the wait to find the right bets. The stinky plot job CLOSE QUARTERS didn't come in, whether she was stopped again or is just a yak will remain to be seen but the other plays were profitable and the previews for all the three days of Chester were bang on.

A big well done to newsletter readers too...with the recent absence of bets in the Risk On section of this newsletter, it was good to see people join the BGP League on the TOTE Fantasy.

It's just a smart move if you're trying to practice good habits.

Same again today, with so much racing on today, place the singles you want on and then play the TOTE Fantasy to keep your chimp interested.

Add your stable to our League using code QHZ36G.

Now, let’s dive in.

Headline round up 

Blackmore does what she wants

Yesterday Rachael Blackmore really f*cked up.

The stewards let her off. The burning question is, if another rider had done this - would it have been the same result?

Big race preview

All the big races at Lingfield today revert to the all-weather due to the waterlogged turf course. Quite frustrating as most animals handle that surface and it would have been a lot easier to pick winners in the slop. Alas, let's dive in to the top racing there today.

14.25 Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes 

Eight girls head to post for the only Group race of the day in the UK and there is a nice theme about the top two mares in the field – they are searching for that illusive Group 1 W.

Something you’ll see with plenty of mares when they are five, and sometimes four, is them staying in training with the big purpose of achieving a certain level of black type before their breeding career starts – ALPINISTA a prime example. 

SACRED is one of those as she hopes to achieve just that this season following her unlucky fifth in the Group 1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. She was the BGP Capital NAP that day and got a terrible ride from Hollie Doyle's husband. That result left many people confused and her next few starts in Group company actually caused Shaggas to ask questions of her - was she a mare who only showed it at home?

It was no Group 1 performance but her Class 1 romp at Newbury last September was very impressive and makes her hot fave for today.

She has entries for the Lockinge in two weeks (unlikely) and the Jubilee Stakes so if today goes well, she could be set for that next month.  

Haggas is also represented by QUEEN AMINATU and her recent form to beat ROMAN MIST, a winner at Goodwood this week, and OSCULA from October 2022 reads very well. 

SANDRINE, for Lady Rausing, who owns the aforementioned ALPINISTA, is the 3/1 second favourite and her form with PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, INSPIRAL, and KINROSS looks very nice. 

She was fifth on her seasonal debut in the Guineas last year and won her debut race, so her fto record is decent. 

WHITE MOONLIGHT is the sole Godolphin representative for Guineas winner Saeed bin Buroor, though recent efforts and form have her slightly up against it today. 

Verdict: SACRED blows so hot and cold but when she's on it, she's on it and if at her best she wins. Big if.

15.00 Listed Oaks Trial 

A good field of nine have stood their ground for the Oaks Trial at Lingfield on the all-weather and the horse who has seen sustained money is the Ballydoyle charge BE HAPPY under the in-form Ryan Moore. 

Her third lto in France to PENSEE DU JOUR and SEA OF ROSES, an entry at the five-day stage before being scratched, looks decent form though she has been racing in soft conditions on the turf for her whole career and a switch to the all-weather shouldn't be a problem.

ETERNAL HOPE, however, is one who exclusively has form on the all-weather and her off-the-pace effort under Harry Davies was good lto - you would be taking a big risk on visuals rather than on form if backing her today. 

One at a bit of a price who holds interest is BRIGHT DIAMOND for Karl Burke and Sam James. She was third to FAIRY CROSS (Gr1 Fillies’ Mile) and third to COMMISSIONING on her last two starts following a nine-length win on debut. 

She steps up four furlongs today and is an EL KABEIR (Group 3 winner over a mile) out of 1m2f mare so maybe that wouldn’t scream 1m4f, however, she shaped like she may want further lto. 

Verdict: Aidan wins these for fun and BE HAPPY's form behind SEA OF ROSES is a form line we're following.

Listed Derby Trial 

We could see another big performance today from Godolphin’s MILITARY ORDER.

 His case would be better on soft turf which is what we were all expecting but despite that, his Newbury win lto was very, very taking and because of that, he is already 7/1 for the Derby – he has been well-backed, but is there anyone there to stop this full brother to ADAYAR? 

The only other unbeaten horse in the race is the once-raced INQUIRING MINDS for John & Thady Gosden following his five-length Newcastle win at the start of the month. 

A KINGMAN out of a NATHANIEL mare is an attractive cross and he's clearly needed time given he didn't race at 2. Gosden has been fire with his 3yo's this season and he is interesting in todays line up.

CIRCLE OF FIRE is the second favourite in the contest for the King & Queen – it’s very tough to analyse his form having only raced in a Listed event when second at Newmarket last week as his previous two races don’t seem to hold too much. 

Verdict: This is really tricky one. ADAYARS bro looks good, the Kings horse ran well at HQ, the Gosden horse could be anything and Walkers horse is unexposed. It might be stupid to take on the Godolphin hot pot but it's racing and anything can happen so we're hanging our hat on Walkers WAIPIRO at 10's.

Away from Lingfield...

14.40 The Victoria Cup

23 runners over 7 furlongs at Ascot. This will take some tipping. If the verdict is right we expect some big love so here we go…

Last years winner VAFORTINO has climbed up the ratings and is “10lbs ‘wrong’ compared to last year as Kevin Philippart De Foy quotes. Will like the soft going.

KINGDOM COME wouldn’t want it soft; one to watch for Royal Ascot.

BIGGLES is a player. Great draw in stall 23, won’t mind the conditions but lacks course form.

PEROTTO debuts for the Roger Varian stable. He can handle soft ground being by NEW BAY, but he would prefer summer ground. On a very dangerous mark - his last winning mark is 99 and is now rated 97.

RAINBOW FIRE reps the Middleham Park team who are on fire lately. This lad has some very good form in the book. He had the better of BIGGLES 14 days ago and looks progressive.

The old boy ACCIDENTAL AGENT loves Ascot. Second in this last year off 6lbs higher and has had a pipe opener at Newmarket. Great stall in 20.

In stall 16, SIR DANCEALOT jumps out for his old mate Gerald Mosse. A five time group winner who likes soft ground.

TOTALLY CHARMING is coming back in trip to 7 furlongs from a mile. He’ll cope with the soft conditions and is drawn well in stall 13. Very skinny price for a race like this though.

Verdict: Demuro is an eye-catching booking for 160k TOIMY SON. He's by TWILIGHT SON who tend to need better ground though. Despite the missing course form, we think BIGGLES at 10's is the one in this. He's by ZOFFANY so will love the ground and Beckett can train.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

15.10 Ascot

A novice event typically harvested by the boys in blue here.

OCEAN RUNNER the 625,000gns Breezer heads the market, joint top lot at the Craven Breeze Up Sale. By BLUE POINT (4 o/o the top 10 lots at the Craven were by BP) who as we all know by now is producing very early quick horses. This lad was prepped at Norman Williamson (ex jump jock) who also prepped NATIVE TRAIL a few years back. Out of a Gr3 winning mare. Was unloved as a yearling being bought back by the owner for 70k, turned out to be a good decision!

VALOUR AND SWAGGER is another BLUE POINT who won impressively on debut beating a horse who had had the benefit of a run. Form yet to be properly tested but looks ok,does carry a penalty though. Dam won at 2 and was 3rd in the UAE Oaks, Gr3 Godolphin owned her before selling her for 90k to her current owners.

WESTERN is son of MAGNA GRECIA, costing €100,000 as a yearling. Out of an ELUSIVE QUALITY mare who is a full sister to WID who was Listed placed. Dam was unraced and her first foal hasn’t done anything but it’s a good speedy pedigree. Best watched on debut.

SON is by TOO DARN HOT who was a Champion 2yo. A January foal, dam was a group winner in Italy and has produced a Gr3 winner in Italy. In fact the whole family is Italian, second dam produced an Italian 1000 Guineas winner.

NATURAL FORCE is by Land Force o/o an unraced REDOUTES CHOICE mare (same cross as one of our 2yo’s), he was also raised at Highclere Stud. This lad was prepped for the Craven Breeze Up Sale but was withdrawn so he’ll know his job. Interesting to see how he gets on as BGP Capital were the unbid on him. Dam is a half sister to crack Gr1 sprinter Regal Parade.

Verdict: Obviously we'd love for NATURAL FORCE to run a big race but Tate might not have this big chap ready first time out, I'll be cheering for him though. Despite the draw, the market is shouting for OCEAN RUNNER.

Risk on

Even without risk on, this was very nice to watch yesterday.

BGP Capital will again have eyes on two other horses today who, in various ways are linked to our team. The first up is the horse we were underbid to, NATURAL FORCE in the 15.10 who has the same cross as our big boy LAND FORCE. Later LOWTON runs in the 19.10 who is a half to one of our girls. Will he provide a nice boost to our fillies page as a broodmare prospect? Fingers crossed!

15.45 WESTERTON

If Ferguson's WONDER LEGEND is supposed to be a Group horse, then WESTERTON is a bet at Ascot. Full bet at 2's.

Any other bets will be posted on twitter @equinties.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens.

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: