Equinties - the weekender

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Gm EquinautsSeveral shorties beat yesterday, but it doesn't matter when risk on goes in at double figures.

We finished York in some style, now for the weekend. LFG.

COMPETITION

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Now, let’s dive in.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

13.50 Carnavon Stakes

This is competitive Listed race. These colts will be looking to make a splash at Royal Ascot’s Commonwealth Cup next month.

NOBLE STLYE has always looked a Group performer if not a Group 1 sprinter in the making.

Unbeaten as a 2yo concluded by winning the Gimcrack when he ‘won going away’. He is 7lbs clear on official ratings.

AESOP’S FABLES won a smart Gr2 as a juvenile over 6 furlongs and was then stepped up to 7 furlongs where either he wasn’t good enough or didn’t see out the extra furlong. Anyhow, he’s back to 6 furlongs today and importantly back on summer ground. He’s by Coolmore’s highest earning stallion in NO NAY NEVER. Looks interesting.

SHAQUILLE has obviously always been thought of as quite talented. He ran in the Gr3 Acomb won by CHALDEAN, but never landed a blow. Julie Camacho doesn’t normally throw them in like that. Reverting back to 6 furlongs he is 3-3 and this is a step in the right direction.

Two of these colts RABAAH and DESERT COP are looking like potential Group performers. DESERT COP's first run on turf was at Ascot and it was a little embarrassing, basically tailed off but his form suggested he should have been in the top two. Needs to be given another chance. The former is progressing with each run, he stood in the stalls on debut. Charlie Hills knows the time of day with his sprinters and won this in 2019 with KHAADEM. A couple to put in the notebook.

Verdict: You’ll be brave to go against NOBLE STYLE. He didn’t see out the mile in the Guineas and the soft ground probably wasn’t to his liking but the ew play has surely got to be RAABAH at 9's for Hills. Dam is a half sis to MUHAARAR.

15.00 London Gold Cup

We don’t usually cover these big handicaps as they are tough to work out and money is typically better placed elsewhere, but this is a valuable one that usually produces good form for the rest of the season.

A race included in the World Pool - deep liquidity over 20 countries, what's not to like?

The money horse is LIEBER POWER for Andrew Balding. There were incredibly bullish whispers for this lad last season but he hasn't really delivered.

He was never going to be ready on debut but he only just did the job second time out, leaving a lot to be desired by way of form.

He re-opposes EXOPLANET and BUSSENTO from his debut at Newbury, EXOPLANET was hit hard by punters and did the job - that was a good gamble. His pedigree is Classic form, his grand dam produced 1000 Guineas horse LEGATISSIMO and she's a full sister to Irish Derby winner and bumper king FAME AND GLORY!

Interestingly, Aidan O’Brien is sending one over for the 1m2f contest as he is represented by BERTINELLI off a lofty mark of 99.

He has a nice pedigree as the dam, TOGETHER FOREVER, is a sister to Oaks winner FOREVER TOGETHER- his second to ALDER holds merit on form but he is rated accordingly and doesn’t look to have many pounds in hand.

Highlighted in the newsletter a few weeks ago, owner Jaber Abdullah has a good team of horses this year - QUEEN ME, MARHABA YA SANAFI & yesterday’s winner MARHABA THE CHAMP have done him proud.

He sends LOYAL TOUCH to today’s contest with Frankie Dettori booked to do the steering - his third to THE FOXES as a 2yo at Goodwood reads well now and comes into today off a mark of 90.

Verdict: The words 'he's a proper horse' about LIEBER POWER from last years whispers echo in our mind but he's yet to show up. We think EXOPLANET is the best horse in the race. Varian won it two years ago with BAY BRIDGE.

15.35 Group 1 Lockinge Stakes 

This is a good race. It's a competitive field of 13 for Newbury’s one-mile contest and the market is topped by MODERN GAMES at 7/3.

The globetrotting four-year-old is a four-time Group 1 winner across the UK, France, Canada, and US with his last run on these shores occurring on Champions Day when second to BAYSIDE BOY.

Godolphin’s charge is obviously a good animal, however, one could question the quality of fields he has been beating and this will be a tough test.

On his last start in the Lockinge, Frankie Dettori is getting the leg up on LAUREL in the famous Juddmonte silks carried by FRANKEL to victory in 2012.

This daughter of KINGMAN is right in the deep end here having won at Kempton on the aw comfortably last month and she is extremely unexposed. How good is she?

At a point bigger, MUTASAABEQ has been squeezed all week and is as short as 5/1 from 8/1 ante-post after his facile downing of NATIVE TRAIL lto - he has little negatives if he doesn’t bounce off a 15-day break.

MY PROSPERO and the two-time Group 1 placed animal is back over a mile today.

We backed him at Newbury, we backed him at Sandown against REACH FOR THE MOON, we even followed him over to France. We love this horse.

Having been tried over 1m2f, he is back to a mile and over a course and distance he has been successful over - his third to COROEBUS at Royal Ascot was very good and he could be tough to beat today but our only concern is that this might be simply a nice prep for the Prince Of Wales Stakes.

Here he is serving it up to COROEBUS at Royal Ascot last year:

Verdict: Two in the race. CHINDIT beat MUSTAABEQ at Ascot last year so their pricing differential needs to be taken advantage of. Complete insult he's 22/1. He finished third in this last year and there's BAAEED this year! We'll also stick with our old friend MY PROSPERO.

NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

13.30 Newmarket

MAWJ and CACHET have won this maiden in the last two years, incredible to achieve two classic winners back to back. DAAYEH won this 3 years ago and she won the Albany stakes at Royal Ascot. These fillies are well bred, let’s take a look...

JABAARA is by the speed machine EXCEED AND EXCEL who had a maiden winner at York this week. This is a homebred related to a pair of 90+ horses.

Richard Hannon and Amo Racing’s two year old, LA GUARIDA is by NEW BAY who now stands for €75,000 in Ireland. Descends from an American family that includes ASHADO who was Champion 3yo filly in the USA. George Boughey won this in 2021 and their filly, OOPS was a 12k foal before being sold for 62,000gns as a yearling. Plenty of good 2yo’s in the pedigree and by TERRITORIES who does well with his fillies.

Hugo Palmer saddles SOUTH KENSINGTON but has only had one winner in 35 starters in the last two weeks. This filly is by the new kid on the block, BLUE POINT. Her grand dam produced Oh So Sharp stakes winner ALSINDI.

MISS ROBERTS looked a big strong filly at the yearling sales. She’s by SIYOUNI who stands for €150,000 in France and out of a FRANKEL mare. A ‘proper’ family, full of black type that includes MAGIC WAND and CHICQUITA.

RATING is trained by Brian Meehan and they brought this filly at Goffs Premier Yearling sales for £78,000. Her dam won as a 2yo and has produced the Meehan trained FOR A LAUGH who was fourth in the Superlative Stakes Gr2 last year from Isaac Shelby.

Verdict: MISS ROBERTS has a gorgeous family tree, but Ed Walkers tend to need the run. Roger Varian’s JABAARA would make most appeal, she’s from a fast family and wouldn’t take a lot to get ready first time up. Varian won this in 2021 and the sire EXCEED AND EXCEL had the winner last year in MAWJ.

Risk on

No real size moved today so only small bets on the above preview horses as well as:

14.25 HASKOY

Her form in the St Leger is class and it was boosted yesterday by ELDAR ELDAROV and GIAVELOTTO. Unexposed and should be more to come with Frankie onboard. 10/3 when mentioned yesterday, now 9/4. Half win bet.

15.15 POWERDRESS

Sandwiched by HOLGUIN r108 and 1000 Guineas second HI ROYAL at the start of the year at HQ. That was after a long time off the track, so she either bounced in the big one or hated the ground or the mile. Regardless of this she is a good filly and worth backing today. 10/3 half bet win.

16.45 BLUESTOCKING

Juddmonte have three nice fillies out today in HASKOY, LAUREL and BLUESTOCKING (wouldn't surprise us if they all went in) but this girl looks a knock in today.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens.

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever.

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

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