Equinties - weekender

Gm Equinauts

A we draw close on the final few weekends of the flat season, Chepstow gets the jumps fully underway. If I close my eyes, I can see an Anchorman style fight in the Newbury car park, between the tight grey trouser wearing, wind on the bare ankles suffering flat boys going toe to toe with the chubby, Guinness drinking, tweed wearing, young conservatives of the jumps world.

My money would be on the flat boys fyi.

The jumps lot (this includes me) can piss off today, it's a big, big day for the flat. Whoever wins the Gr1 Dewhurst today goes in to the winter as 2000 Guineas antepost fave.

Let's dive in

Weekend Preview

Three Group races from Newmarket take our focus this weekend – Chepstow has poor field sizes but horses like MCFABULOUS, GALAHAD QUEST, KNAPPERS HILL, and BROOMFIELD BURG are all worth watching, as well as the hot bumper at the end… on quick too so I’ll most likely be playing in it.

Let’s dive in.

13.50 Gr3 Zetland Stakes  

The opening race at Newmarket today is the Gr3 Zetland Stakes for two-year-olds over 1m2f – the sponsors Godolphin won this race in 2021 and 2011 and they are represented by FLYING HONOURS at the top of the market. 

Clear on ratings by six pounds, this SEA THE STARS colt was touched off by THE FOXES lto in the Gr2 Royal Lodge Stakes at odds of 2/7, though he looked very impressive on his two previous starts.  

It looked like Andrew Balding’s CHURCHILL colt just caught him for speed on that day, as did DUBAI MILE who was also ahead of him – it seems connections agree as he steps up two furlongs today, something his pedigree would lend itself to (out of the DUBAWI mare POWDER SNOW who won a 1m2f Gr3 in France), and he needs to bounce back.  

If you aren’t convinced by the favourite, what do you take him on with?  

Andrew Balding’s GALILEO colt GALACTIC JACK may be your preferred choice at 9’s

He is still unexposed over the trip and looked smart to win a Class 2 maiden at Goodwood 17 days ago under David Probert who retains the ride today.  

His dam, JACK NAYLOR, finished fourth in the 2015 Irish 1000 Guineas, was a fair sixth in the Epsom Oaks two weeks later, and ran well to be a runner-up in the Irish equivalent – GALACTIC JACK’s granddam, FASHIONABLE, was also a Listed winner at 1m2f, showing that he comes from a good middle distance family. He has plenty of scope to improve. 

At slightly shorter odds is Charlie and Mark Johnston’s DEAR MY FRIEND, a two-time winner who has struggled on his two starts in better-quality events, although he was beaten by MARBAAN in the Gr2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood two starts ago, a horse who lines up in the Gr1 Dewhurst later.  

By PIVOTAL, a sire who produces high-class two-year-olds, out of a TEOFILO (Dave’s sire) mare, he is another who is stepping up to 1m2f today – he will need the influence of his mum’s side to help him stay out the trip today. 

Our view: it’s REALLY tough to see past the Godolphin fave here despite him being turned over at odds on last time at Newmarket. That was a better race than this and he could be the leverage horse today.

Gr3 Autumn Stakes 

The Group 3 Autumn Stakes is next on the agenda and just six go to post. 

The big form horse coming into today is HOLLOWAY BOY for the Karl Burke team, this season’s Chesham Stakes victor.  

He has since proved that Royal Ascot was no fluke, running two big races behind two Dewhurst hopes in MARBAAN and NOSTRUM on his last two starts – he should be right there if this step up to a mile doesn’t cause an issue. 

He shares favourtism with John and Thady Gosden’s KINGMAN colt EPICTETUS – he won a Class 3 maiden 92 days ago, a race that had a slower overall time than the course and distance handicap later on the card and had a very similar finishing speed in the final three furlongs. 

He hasn’t been seen since that race and looks a puzzling favourite off the back of just that run, although he is out of the Group 1-winning THISTLE BIRD and he is a half-brother to JUMBLY. 

Very close to the market protagonists is Godolphin’s SILVER KNOTT, a LOPE DE VEGA colt by GOD GIVEN – he won the Gr3 Solario Stakes last month comfortably before going on to finish third of three in the Gr2 Champagne Stakes lto, a race won by Juddmonte’s Dewhurst hope CHALDEAN.  

Godolphin picked up this lad for 725,000gns at last year’s Tattersalls October Yearling Sales and they doubled down on the GOD GIVEN pedigree this year by spending 1,500,000gns on a DUBAWI half-brother to him on Thursday (we mentioned this) – this shows how much they like SILVER KNOTT if they are willing to fork out that much for his sibling.  

 Our view: I think Holloway Bay just bumped into one lto at Newmarket. I still like him although he has two seconds next to his name now, he really hasn’t been beaten far. Good bet I say.

Gr1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes 

Seven two-year-olds, 18 victories between them, Classic seasons are yet to come. This year’s Gr1 Dewhurst, won last year by the eventual 2000 Guineas runner-up NATIVE TRAIL, looks set to be proper viewing with Juddmonte holding a pair of aces at the top of the market.  

NOSTRUM is the better-fancied colt of their runners (market wise anyway) despite being officially rated three pounds lower than CHALDEAN.  

The former is unbeaten in two and was last seen 16 days ago when he bolted up in the Gr3 Tattersalls Stakes over C&D. 

His sire KINGMAN, his dam MIRROR LAKE, and his damsire DUBAI DESTINATION did not collect Group 1 success as a two-year-old – their career highlights came in their three-year-old season (STAT!). Could that be a potential worry coming into today? 

On the other hand, CHALDEAN is by FRANKEL, the winner of this race in 2010 when running to an RPR of 126, and his damsire, DUTCH ART, won the Gr2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot in 2006 before going on to win the Gr1 Prix Morny and the Dewhurst in his two-year-old season (DOUBLE STAT!).  

Andrew Balding’s two-year-old colt has already won the Gr2 Champagne Stakes and the Gr3 Acomb Stakes this year and comes into today in red hot form. 

Away from the Juddmonte duo, Godolphin’s NAVAL POWER and Coolmore’s AESOP’S FABLES are potentially two against the top pair at 4/1 and 13/2 respectively.  

The former is a four-time successor this year, none of which were at Group level, but he has been very impressive in two Listed events at both Ascot and Haydock. 

Charlie Appleby and William Buick have won two of the last three renewals of this race with the previously mentioned NATIVE TRAIL and PINATUBO - they could have another potential superstar on their hands and make it ¾ today.  

As for AESOP’S FABLES, for the 2020 winning partnership of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, he is having his second try at a Group 1 contest following his disappointment lto in the National Stakes. 

It was soft ground that day and he had to try and make all – a nice pace to aim at and better ground will suit him down to the ground today. 

Our view: Baldings lot haven’t stopped harping on about CHALDEAN all week. His work this week has been impressive and apparently he’s improved a lot. NOSTRUM looks a proper sort and defo the one to beat if he’s improved but I’ll take a FRANKEL over a KINGMAN all day long. BGP 1 are on CHALDEAN ante-post at 8’s ew, but at the prices now it’s just a great great watching race.

Risk On

Bets posted on twitter