Equinties - the weekend

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Gm Equinauts

Today's newsletter will be short and sweet as most of team BGP are hitting Newbury today.

Quick shout out to JP for making it a Good Friday yesterday, HALDON HILL and CHAMP delivering the goods…. What a ride by JJ jnr on CHAMP, saving him pretty much all the way to the last furlong where he knew he’d need every last drop of fuel to fend of PAISLEY PARK. I think his ride will go very much unloved given how much of a spectacle the race turned out to be. Top draw.

Now, let’s dive in.

Big race preview

Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase

The first Graded race of the day is the 12.45 at Newbury, a three-runner 2m7f novice chase (snooze) – however, for what it lacks in quantity, it certainly doesn’t lack in quality.

THYME HILL is the clear odds-on favourite following his high-class showing at Exeter lto for Phillips Hobbs and Tom O’Brien – his jumping was outstanding this day and he has earned himself quotes of 13/2 for the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham in March.

Second in last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle and one of the most consistent hurdlers over the last two years, he is the class act, and the market expects him to get the job done today but I imagine Nicholls will have something to say about that…

Opposing him at 2/1 for Paul Nicholls and Lorcan Williams is MCFABULOUS, a Grade 2 winner over hurdles at Sandown in the Select Hurdle last season.

Following his pulled-up effort in his first run over fences (we backed him this day ffs), the eight-year-old put that run behind him to comfortably beat UNEXPECTED PARTY, a 141-rated Dan Skelton horse, by nine lengths – the turn of foot he showed after the last was impressive and he could make it a tough race.

Fergal O’Brien’s MORTLACH completes the field, a horse who has been on the go since April this year and has run 12 times in that period of time – he was second to HANG IN THERE in the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices’ Chase lto.

He is a proper good ground horse and the team at Ravenswell Farm have worked wonders with him to get him to this level – he will pick up at least £5,350 in prize money for just getting around and anything else will be a bonus.

 Our view: One to watch where the fc should be as the market suggests.

Coral Gold Cup

As we do with all of the big handicap races in our newsletters, because they are too big to preview, we will give you some stats which could guide you through this race.

Since 1984, seven renewals have been won by a horse carrying 11-06 or more, and most of these horses turned out to be greats of the game – in recent years, DENMAN (twice), BOBS WORTH, and MANY CLOUDS have done it.

One of the biggest stats for this race is no horse has won this as a five-year-old – the big ante-post mover, BUSSLETON, would be against this stat as he is that age for Joseph O’Brien.

In a similar vein, nine-year-olds and ten-year-olds don’t have the best records in this race, something that may count against the likes of REMASTERED, POTTERMAN, and LOSTINTRANSLATION.

The big movers over the last 48 hours both ran in the same Cheltenham Festival race last season as the 1-2 from the Ultima Chase have swapped places in the market – GERICAULT ROQUE is the new favourite at 13/2 whilst CORACH RAMBLER is as big as 9/1 - is he going to be pulled?

In a recent interview for the Racing Post, Dan Skelton made it clear mid week how happy he is with his runner LE MILOS. Bought and targeted specifically for this race, he raced quite unfit lto according to his trainer and will come of tonnes for that run. Dan is a young trainer very much on the up (if he doesn’t get banned for defrauding his owners) and shouldn’t be ignored when he’s trying to land one.

Our view: As with most big handicaps, we see them as non-betting races but LE MILOS fits the bill for a yard in red hot form.

Grade 1 Fighting Fifth

Okay, finally, it’s here!

Nicky Henderson has stuck to his word all week and CONSTITUTION HILL is making the trip to Newcastle for the Fighting Fifth, the first Grade 1 hurdle race of the UK season.

Electrifying in the Supreme, he is making his seasonal reappearance following the non-runner fiasco last week at Ascot – there’s not much else you can say about him other than the fact that he will get every horse racing fan glued to the TV at 14.10 today.

Up against him, and not without a huge chance should CH underperform, is EPATANTE from the same stable who is going for her third Fighting Fifth success.

EPATANTE is Hendo’s most underrated horse imo. Three G1’s last season! She’s just so consistent at the top level.

She dead-heated in this race last season, bagged the Christmas hurdle, finished second to HONEYSUCKLE in the Champion Hurdle after clattering the last and then bolted up in the Aintree Hurdle nto. Proper horse.

She will be trained to 100% for this race and will be at her best.

The horse EPATANTE dead-heated with last year was NOT SO SLEEPY, a horse who is a bit in-and-out but has some good form to his name.

Like EPATANTE, he would have been trained for today, whether he is good enough to beat CONSTITUTION HILL is another story (we all know the answer) but he will make the race interesting to say the least… he has quirks!

TOMMY’S OSCAR and VOIX DU REVE complete the field for this fascinating and exciting contest.

 Our view: All eyes on Hendo’s. I’m in two minds as to whether I want to see a proper race of it or CONSITUTION HILL win by 1538625 lengths.

Ireland

The intern is tired and has looked over the Irish cards for the weekend - he thinks they are very good, however, rather than a preview, let’s remind you of who and what is racing

On Saturday, the opening race at Gowran Park, a 2m4f beginners chase, sees MINELLA COCOONER make his first start over fences – the Albert Bartlett runner-up has a hot field of JOURNEY WITH ME, WHATDEAWANT, CLASSIC GETAWAY, and FOLCANO to deal with. Woof!

Willie Mullins’ €360,000 purchase SPANISH HARLEM is making his Irish debut in the 1:40, a 2m novice hurdle – the promising IMAGINE and INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN oppose.

The highly thought of PINK IN THE PARK is making her debut over hurdles in the 2:15 maiden hurdle to finish a strong day for Willie Mullins.

And on Sunday at Navan, the day starts with a bang from early as the unbeaten bumper horse GRANGECLARE WEST runs in the 12:50 2m4f maiden hurdle against Gordon Elliott’s bumper winner FIRM FOOTINGS.

30 minutes later, AMERICAN MIKE is priced at 4/7 to pick up a first Graded success in the 2m4f Grade 3 novice hurdle – his main danger looks to be THREE CARD BRAG, an eyecatcher from Navan lto.

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Troytown Handicap Chase at 2:20 on Sunday, a race in which Gigginstown and JP McManus collectively own eight of the 19 runners – FRONTAL ASSULT tops the market at 7/2 while VELVET ELVIS is the next best at 9/1.

And finally, the long-awaited chasing debut of FIL DOR is set to go down in the 2m1f beginners chase against 14 other competitors – he has a 2020 Cheltenham Festival winner, SAINT ROI, to beat.

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Bumpers

The Donny bumper is shit so leaving that, but the Bangor bumper looks very good. There’s a few horses in here with very nice point form, namely BLUE FIN and ROCK DANSE. WAY OUT defo is the horse to beat in this having done not much wrong since winning his point but it’s Venetias I like. A full brother to EASY AS THAT who has been good to us. He was a proper bumper horse and if his brother is anything like him, then he’s the one to beat.

Our view: I liked him at 10’s, not quite as much now at 7’s, SOLE SOLUTION is the pick.

Risk on

We’re at Newbury and will be punting so strong bets on Twitter but we like these to kick start Saturday.

12.40 RARE EDITION

14.03 GRAIN D’OUDAIRIES

14.22 NOTHIN TO ASK

10/1 treble. Don’s the weak link as hasn’t had a run but his price could look stupid post race. Was a warm af bumper lto.

13.55 DORKING BOY

Long shot is Dorking Boy at Newbury. About 33’s. Owner/trainer love a big Newbury winner (landed the betfair hurdle I think). Lacey had a big price go in yesterday too with yard bang in form. Race is full of horses with it all to prove so worth a play at the price.