Equinties - Varian’s loss

Author

BGP Capital
August 20, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

One of the biggest festivals of flat racing kick starts tomorrow, York’s Ebor.

We will be previewing all the big races and tipping (hopefully) the fastest horse. It’s going to be a very beautiful week.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

MORE VARIAN DRAMA

Drama between owners and trainers is what really fuels Racing X.

Think back to Amo Racing and Roger Varian all those months ago - the place was on fire and people were out for blood.

The straw that broke the donkey’s back was seemingly the injury sustained by KING OF STEEL at Varian’s.

The reason we bring this up is, well, a similar situation has occurred between Varian and long-time owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid.

This all came as a bit of a shock when the news was released yesterday, but there could be a reason as to why this has occurred.

According to, yes, the Racing Blogger, the promising MATSURI has sustained a career-ending injury. If true, this was probably the catalyst behind the stable switch.

Horses get injured at home all the time, and many of the instances never make it out into the public domain. So, this could have just been two bad strokes of luck for Varian with the injuries occurring to two of his top stars.

One would have to be a small be concerned until we get any more news, however. After all, when was the last time a big yard publicly had two separate high-profile owners leave the yard over an injury?

KIRRANE’S BACK

LIVE IN THR DREAM hasn’t been the same horse since his exploits in the Nunthorpe and at the Breeders’ Cup last year.

He nearly won fto this season, but ahead of him trying to retain his Nunthorpe title on Friday, he would need to step up massively.

So, in order to try and give the horse his best chance, connections have brought jockey Sean Kirrane back to the saddle.

Is this a good move? Who knows. To be honest, this probably isn’t the thing that will win him the Nunthorpe.

What might be worth exploring is returning back to the front-running tactics that saw him go so well last year.

He beat a high-class field last year that included BRADSELL and HIGHFIELD PRINCESS.

Bar maybe REGIONAL, there’s no designated front-runner, more just horses who sit prominently. If LIVE IN THE DREAM tries to utilise his speed on the quick ground, he could force a few horses out of their comfort zone.

It may not work out for him, but it could give him the best chance.

MELBOURNE AGAIN

It looks like Willie Mullins is a bit hurt from last year’s missed opportunity at the Melbourne Cup as he is prepping to send both ABSURDE and VAUBAN down under.

Last year, the 2022 Triumph Hurdle winner went to the Melbourne Cup via the Ballyroan Stakes, but this year, the team at Closutton have had to prep him a bit differently.

He is set to travel to York for the Lonsdale Cup, and it’s then Australia from then.

"Vauban is confirmed for the Lonsdale Cup at York so chances are he'll go there," Mullins said. "He had a nice run at the Curragh last month. He'll have to improve but I'm expecting him to and hopefully he can get into the placings.

"It will be a hard task as it looks a hot race, and a first-three finish would be a great result. At the moment we are planning to go back to Australia."

As for some of Mullins’ other runners at York this week, the Copper Horse winner BELLOCCIO is 50/50 to go.

He said: "I don't think the weather is going to be any advantage to Belloccio and I'd have to say he'd be less than 50-50 at the moment with the current going at York.”

RISK ON

Despite the market bumper horse bump(er)ed into one yesterday annoyingly despite the market being so strong for him.

Nothing standout today, no bets.

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