Equinties - Varian plots

Author

BGP Capital
August 18, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

We haven't backed a winner this week.

There haven't been many bets, you’ll know our thing is ‘bet less, bet singles, bet with conviction’, and a strict staking plan combined with bank roll allows for these sorts of weeks but wow does it not get an easier to handle…

You just have to stick to the prog, level emotions and find a winner.

Lets dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 100 stables today, top of the BGP private league comes golfing with BGP Capital - we’ll run the comp until someone wins!

Tote

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

WALES AND WEST ARE CLEAR NORTH OF SCOREBOARD

The third Round of the racing league took place last night at Windsor and Team Wales and West continued to dominate the competition with two winners across the card.

Their first winner of the night came in race 5 under Rhys Clutterbuck for Clive Cox, but it was GALLANT LION who provided the story of the evening as he made it 4 in a row and Saffie Osborne continued her incredible strike rate in the competition.

Osborne is now the clear leader and favourite to win the jockeys title at the end of six weeks, with the circus back out in full force on August 31st at Newcastle.

VARIAN PLOTS

Connections of KING OF STEEL this year's Derby runner up, have swerved a tilt at the Juddmonte International in favour of the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.

The three year old by WOOTTON BASSETT was an 8/1 chance for one of the feature races of the upcoming York meeting, however, trainer Roger Varian is keen to give him more time.

He said: “we're happy to give King Of Steel a bit more time and he's likely to miss York and go to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion Stakes next month. We won't know until we run him but you can make a case that he might be a better horse back at ten furlongs”.

TEARS FOR LOWER TIERS?

The lower tiers of British racing are set to see prize money drop by almost £2m soon due to the new premierisation of race meetings.

The BHA announced earlier this year that three main race meetings will centralise around prime time on Saturdays to attract a new audience to the sport in a move known as ‘premierisation’.

In what was an idea that was meant to brighten up the sport, Hexham manager Robert Whitelock has warned that some of their standard races could fall by £500-£600 per contest.

With this and affordability checks, he is worried for the future as he said: “we're trying to be pragmatic and facilitate the strategy because it might work, but we've pointed out frequently in the discussions that the pain is being felt by the common or garden owner, trainer and Racecourse. There is 1.9 million going out of the core to fund Premier which I'd expect to take £50,000 to £60,000 worth of levy funding away from our programme at Thirsk”.

BIG RACE PREVIEW/YOUNG BLOOD

15.45 NEWBURY - LISTED ST HUGH’S STAKES

MIAHARRIS presumably named after a relation of the owner Olly Harris. By ZOUSTAR, cost 60k as a yearling and 210k as a breeze up. Made a very taking debut at Sandown having been gambled. Dam has produced a range of horses with official ratings from 64 to 104.

MAJESTIC BEAUTY is one of two HAVANA GREY’s in this field. She’s won on both her starts to date with her debut good and second start a narrow victory after an 88 day break suggesting there could well be more in the tank.

JUNIPER BERRIES cost 28k as a yearling last year and has given her owners a fantastic season. 4th at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary and then second at Glorious Goodwood lto, was well beaten but didn’t get a clear run. Beat INDISPENSABLE.

INDISPENSABLE is the most raced in this line up. She was beaten by JUNIPER BERRIES at Goodwood and picked up some Listed placed black type in Ireland before that, a race in which saw CHERRY BLOSSOM fourth since win well.

LADY PINK ROSE ran well on the wrong side of the track at Royal Ascot, only just beat GOOD POINT lto and that horse was well beaten by MAJESTIC BEAUTY so on form lines the latter is 5 lengths in front of her.

DOROTHY LAWRENCE by SOLDIERS CALL was third in a Listed race at Chantilly and then won lto at Beverley. It was a narrow victory, the form hasn’t worked out and was giving weight to the second. Needs to find a bit more today.

BEENHAM needs a change of fortune as she is starting to look exposed especially in a field like this. Way behind JUNIPER BERRIES lto.

BETTIES BAY ran well on debut and then down the field at Royal Ascot. She bounced back to form lto winning over the course but over 6f rather than the 5f today, form looks good with the fourth going on to win nto. She may be tapped for toe today but in there with a chance.

MAKE IT EASY by MEHMAS looked to be progressive before Goodwood where she was behind JUNIPER BERRIES, INDISPENSABLE and BEENHAM. The trainer will be hoping the step up to 6f bring out further improvement.

UNBREAK MY HEART by SHOWCASING is a half sister to HEARTACHE who won the Queen Mary S. and Flying Childers at 2 and a full sister to HEARTWARMING who was second in this race in 2018. UMH beat INDISPENSABLE lto. Drop back to 5f will suit.

TALLULABELLE finished behind MIAHARRIS lto, will be tough to turn the tables on her on that evidence.

Verdict: This is always a belting race and the going will be very very important. Its currently raining in Newbury where the track has been good to firm for a while…will there be enough rain to turn it to soft?

If the going does change to soft, JUNIPER BERRIES looks really solid as she always seems to turn up, has the talent and more, loves to bet her toe in.

If the going goes extreme and described as ‘heavy’, then that might even open it up to TEARS OF A CLOWN at 20’s.

STATS OF THE DAY

JAMIH has been targeted for this race the last twice, winning it last year and 4th in ‘21.

RISK ON

A few singles today and a dirty ew double to boot…

14.05 BOURGEOISIE & 15.45 JUNIPER BERRIES

Hannon’s clear pick on form and should win but available at an ew price. The going is going to see the best of JUNIPER BERRIES too. Half bet 15/1 ew double.

17.52 BOOGIE WOOGIE

Tend not to bet in Ireland but this girl is standout. Her form lines with SCARLET O’HARA have her in front of the Aga Khan filly and form lines with SAVETHELASTDANCE just have her in front LIBRARY. Ryan Moore’s pick. Small bet 2/1.

18.00 RAWAASI

Mentioned her the last twice as held in high regard. Huge field today with unknowns so only a half bet at 3/1.

BOILING POINT is simply lev in the 14.40.

We’ve whacked the Newbury horses and RAWAASI in a speccy 74/1 ew acca too.