Equinties - Varian aims for stars

Author

BGP Capital
May 28, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Outsiders rarely get a look-in in the ‘Derby’ conversation but this years race is so bad, we look all but set to see a wild result, so we’re obliged to chat them all up this week.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

GREEN TEAM BOOKINGS

Last week, we spoke about the Epsom gallops morning ahead of this weekend’s Derby and briefly mentioned DEIRA MILE who looked like an interesting outsider.

DEIRA MILE is set to be partnered by Jim Crowley, and luckily for the owners, he is not the only horse who will be sporting their noticeable white and green silks. That’s because owner Ahmad Al Shaikh (who runs DEIRA MILE under the banner of Green Team Racing) will also be represented by SAYEDATY SADATY.

Andrew Balding’s colt by ANODIN finished second in two Listed races so far this season, the first of which looks like a fair piece of form as the third, ORNE, has finished behind BRACKEN’S LAUGH and INISHERIN in two subsequent runs. Tom Marquand is booked to do the steering, and Al Shaikh is looking on the bright side for both of his chances.

He said: "Sayedaty Sadaty has finished second twice in Listed races and they've got him at around 100-1. He's improving all the time and his pedigree suggests the mile and a half should hopefully be fine. I was very surprised at his price and he'll run better than his odds suggest.

"Deira Mile liked the track and Jim [Crowley, jockey] likes him a lot. He said he'll improve from his last race and we didn't want to rush him after it.

"We don't care about the prices of them, we just want them to run well. It's a prestigious race, but you've got to go there with good horses in your hands – I think we have them."

MORE CLASSIC SUCCESS?

Picture this. It’s Bank Holiday Monday and your feet are up watching the racing with a beer in hand, and you look up to the TV to see what division one of the 1m2f novice stakes at Leicester could offer.

It’s probably fair to say that many thought MATSURI, a well-bred SEA THE STARS colt, would, or at least should win, but few would have guessed at just how impressive he would be on a Monday afternoon.

It looks like Roger Varian could have another monster on his hands, a horse for one of this season’s Classics.

Performances like that don’t happen by accident. A half to FELICIANA DE VEGA who won the Group 3 Darley Stakes for Ralph Beckett in 2019, MATSURI’s dam, ALONG CAME CASEY, won the 2013 Listed Hurry Harriet Stakes for Dermot Weld so he’s go the blood.

Having won a novice at Kempton on his last start of 2023, it’s taken connections a bit of time to get him back to the racecourse, but Varian is happy he’s back as he has some lofty targets for him.

He said: We've always rated him highly. It's been frustrating this spring not able to get him out earlier in one of the Derby trials, we thought he was of Derby trial calibre, but he's won nicely and hopefully that will set him up for a good year.

"He's got some big entries. We could look at Royal Ascot but we've also got the Irish Derby and we might quite like the Curragh for this horse."

INTERESTING SUPPLEMENTATION

Something that passed us by at the back end of last week was the five-day confirmations for Oaks Day at Epsom on Friday, and if we had been paying attention, we would have seen that TIME LOCK had been supplemented for the Group 1 Coronation Cup.

The 5yo Juddmonte-owned FRANKEL colt will be a first Group 1 runner for Harry Charlton since he became the sole name on the training license, and he could well have a first Group 1 winner at the same time.

As AUGUSTE RODIN, HANS ANDERSEN, and WHITE BIRCH all ran in Sunday’s Tattersalls Gold Cup, one can imagine they won’t run which will see the field size drop.

TIME LOCK took five runs to land her first win of last season, but she did so in a Listed race in France before returning to the UK with a good 4.5-length success in the Group 3 Dubai Stakes.

Having finished fourth to SEA SILK ROAD – a subsequent Group 1 winner – at the start of last season, bits of her form are stacking up nicely and she’ll come on for her second to OUTBOX at Newmarket earlier this month.

On TIME LOCK, Charlton said: "She's all good, although we could do with the rain staying away if possible. It looks like a good race but it might not be the biggest of fields and that would suit her.

"I don't think she did anything wrong at Newmarket, the race simply didn't pan out the way we would've wanted it. They went slow and the winner had the run of the race, but she ran solid."

RISK ON

A mixed day yesterday as we were one under performance away from a full house, instead it turned out to be damage limitation.

Today is one those days racing where a lot of the races are filled with bad horses…except for the 14.25 where two good breeze-up colts in CARRADOS and TOLERANCE go head to head to battle it out for their Royal Ascot credentials. The market has sided with the Wathnan horse who posted a faster breeze up time in similar conditions to today. A race not to miss.

As for bets, we think these two are up to landing a shortie double:

20.10 CAMBRIA LEGEND & 20.25 SPECIAL DRAGON

CAMBRIA LEGEND was a previous lev horse for us who won easily, we think there is still more to come. A good bet at even money as a single. Last horse is in a two horse race and looked to have bundles in hand lto. Should land the double at 5/2.