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Equinties - up in arms
BGP Capital
January 14, 2026
HEADLINE ROUND UP
UP IN ARMS (LOL)
Racing X is a funny place at times. No one gets more worked up more about absolutely nothing than racing fans. Don’t get us wrong, there is no better place to be than racing X on Saturday when all the faves are coming home in front and every one is winning, it’s a joyous place, but when that ain’t happening, it’s genuinely hard to understand how people can be upset by so many things.
A case in point is CONSITUTION HILL’s next target at …Southwell. How do people not want to see him on track again!?
People were crying that the BHA made special allowances for one horse, which is a spurious claim in itself given BHA rep, Tom Byrne, who although admitted it was designed to get the star their new Friday Night Live initiative, stated that the race was already in the programme and was simply moved (see this thread):
The prize money was enhanced to align with the increased standard of the Friday Night Live offering.
But to those all those we saw have a problem with it - HOW IS GETTING CONSTITUTION HILL RUNNING IN A TELEVISED MEETING ON A FRIDAY NIGHT A BAD THING?
Sport is a business and this makes total commercial sense and gives the fans what they want.
People love moaning for the sake of it and in this instance, they’re wrong. It’s not a matter of opinion either. They’re wrong. It’s happening and guess what? Ya’ll all be watching it - meaning it’s the right move from the BHA, for once.
DRF (Does he Run the Filly?)
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is steadily being clipped in for the Champion Hurdle, which makes sense given her seasonal debut at Christmas when she was close to LOSSIEMOUTH.
Gordon has labelled the upcoming DRF as his litmus test to see whether he will run her there, but the market is slowly anticipating her presence.
If you do have a preference for this mare to fill a place behind SIR GINO, one might want to question her health in the spring… for your punting bank’s health sake. Her peak performances are always in the winter, November and December being the months where Gordon has her at her best. Yes, she won a Grade 1 last year at Aintree in April but that was one of the worst Grade 1’s you’ll find and before that she wouldn’t have had a sniff of the coattails of CONSTITUTION HILL or STATEMAN had they not fallen.
On all known form, she’s the type of girl who prefers the long walks through the mud during the cold wintery months over spring time activities which might get a bead on. She’s different like that…Her and LANGER DAN would have never made a good couple would they!?
A LOOK AHEAD
Every Wednesday we will look ahead to a big Saturday handicap to see if we can spot some value for you. Today look at Ascot’s 2m 5f handicap chase which has a healthy £52k prize money on offer.
The weather will be fine for Friday and Saturday and given the track drains so quickly, the expected deluge of rain tomorrow should mean the ground is good, good to soft - we’re guessing. So we shan’t focus on the mud lovers, annoyingly!
Heading the ante-post market currently is VINCENZO for Sam Thomas whose recent record is brilliant - 6 runs, 2× 1st’s and 4× 2nd’s. Arguably, he should have won the last time or at least got closer to the winner had he not messed up the last fence. VINCENZO will love the good to soft going.
BAD will like Ascot for it rides similar to Kempton - flat and fast. He was going well and travelling within himself in this race last year when falling at the 13th, higher in the weights this year, he seems a better horse. He would need the ground good without cut.
ETALON is a last time out winner and then Dan Skelton came out and said he won’t win again this year lol. his mark is tough to be fair. He beat SCARFACE who reappears. He is versatile on the ground but is on a high mark too.
HITMAN was second in this race last year but carriers top weight in this having picked up a Grade 2 in October. You might so well to find one with a lower weight in this as historical winners have proven.
ISSAM has a chance for Tom Symonds only if the ground is soft and he’s unlikely to get it.
MARTATOR loves Ascot. He’s raced at the track five times and won three of them. He’s off 140, which is his last winning mark. Venetia has had a bad start to the season but the ground hasn’t really been in her favour however this horse isn’t reliant on bad ground and can win on anything. Venetia won this race in 2016 but MARTATOR performed badly in this last year trundling in last.
FUGITIF hasn’t had a sniff of the winners enclosure since 2023 and at 11yo time isn’t on his side now but he doesn’t know that and has still been mixing it at a high level. He’s probably want the ground slower than he’ll get. Maybe he needs to be back at Cheltenham in the mud?
HELTENHAM was travelling nicely until his fall last time out but he would want it proper soft. He looks ready to win soon though.
JUNGLE BOOGIE is another entry for Venetia. He started his racing life very late at 6yo and is therefore unbelievably lightly raced for a 12yo. The last 12yo to win this race was DARE ME for Venetia funnily enough… at 25/1 too! He’ll love good ground if he can get it. He’s dangerous.
Verdict: At this moment in time we’d be siding with the two Venetia Williams horses, MARTATOR and JUNGLE BOOGIE. She’ll be desperate for a winner and she targets these big pots at Ascot. 8’s and 25’s respectively.
