Equinties - title fight

Gm Equinauts

It cannot be overstated how huge this weekend is for NH racing, one that will go down in the history books of this epic sport.

Both Dan Skelton and Paul Nicholls travel to Scotland bearing arms to try stop the Irish invasion of Willie Mullins in a bid to keep the champion trainers title on home soil.

THIS IS GOING TO BE EPIC!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

CALDWELL NOTTER

We had all hoped to see the most expensive National Hunt horse ever sold through a public auction this season, however, Paul Nicholls has all but ruled the6yo out of this season ahead of novice chasing next campaign. 

The €740,000 purchase joined Nicholls after the Caldwell Construction dispersal in February, though he was quick to rule him out of Cheltenham and aim him towards Aintree. However, an infected foot on the eve of the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle meant he skipped his intended target last week, and although he has an entry for Punchestown, the boss of Manor Farm Stables isn’t keen on going. “He is in at Punchestown, but I think I have persuaded the boys that I’m not too keen to go as there’s not much point. I’d rather get him fresh and well and start from scratch with me.”

Sounds sensible to us (and it shows Paul is putting the horse first before the trainers title!).

More: https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/sport/racing/punchestown-festival-unlikely-720000-caldwell-9234418 

TWEETS OF THE DAY

Click the link below to read our previews for all the big races today and reveal our best bets. We were two places off landing a 50/1 treble yesterday, today we’re taking another treble, this one paying 40’s.

DONT MISS! TOMORROW WE WILL BE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE ON THE NEWSLETTER HORSE TO ALL WEEKENDER SUBSCRIBERS. CLICK THE LINK BELOW TO BE A PART OF THE CLUB.

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

14.05 GROUP 3 FREE DARLING

Named after local trainer Fred Darling who was in his prime during the 1940s. He won 6 trainers championships and 7 Derby’s. Fred Darling also won the 1000 Guineas, so this race fits nicely as a trial (and is a Gr3 in its own right) however, none of these look like they’ll dent the Guineas market.

RELIEF RALLY was the best 2yo of this mediocre bunch. Winner of the Lowther Stakes last year, the only time she ran over 6 furlongs. Difficult to say she’ll go as well over 7 furlongs today but worth a chance. If not, it’ll be back to sprinting.

REGAL JUBILEE is very well bred, being by FRANKEL. The sister to REGAL REALITY, her form is quite good especially when she won a Listed race at Newmarket. That was on heavy and over a mile, so the ground won’t be an issue, but dropping back in trip might. 

Richard Hughes is going great guns. STAR MUSIC is by ZOUSTAR who has smashed it up in Australia but struggled in some ways up here, although he had a nice one at Newbury yesterday. Beaten 3 lengths in the Oh So Sharp Stakes last year, DANCE SEQUENCE hasn’t done that form much favour but it’s probably still good group form - a Gr3 after all. Chance! 

FOLGARIA is the sexy Italian mistress that your wife hates. Unbeaten in 5 starts, she comes over to put her record on the line. A 10k yearling, she’s blossoming with age.

ELMALKA is seriously well bred. By KINGMAN, her brother is BENBATL and her mother is multiple Gr1 winner NAHRAIN who is also out of Epsom Oaks placed second BAHR. Her only piece of form is on the all weather and that is patchy.

TOPANGA owns a nice pedigree, very nice. By SIYOUNI, this filly has a deep Juddmonte family, her granddam is Falmouth Stakes winner TIMEPIECE. Open to improvement just on pedigree alone. 2 runs at Kempton last year yielded a win, she was put away and comes here as an unknown quantity. Would like to see a bit of support for her and maybe one for later in the year.

Verdict: if Relief Rally stays the 7 furlongs then she should be winning this, but she has been weak in the market. The Frankel filly of Cheveley Park has held firm in the market; REGAL JUBILEE has a few ticks in her box but Gosden’s are needing the run. STAR MUSIC reps Hughes who is bang in form and can give them two market faves most to worry about at 5’s.

14.25 GRADE 2 SCOTTISH CHAMPION HURDLE

This year’s Scottish Champion Hurdle is a corker Willie, Paul, and Dan all want that £56,270 towards the trainers’ title, though it’s the second-place in the standings, Dan Skelton, who has the favourite with L’EAU DU SUD. His form is rock solid, but he’s been pushed up in the handicap for not winning races. Having had plenty of time off between March 2023 and February 2024, he ran a belter to finish second in the Betfair Hurdle – a strong piece of form with GO DANTE, OUR CHAMP, and FAIVOIR – and then he ran into a brilliant ABSURDE in the County. 

He’s 6yo and could still be improving, it’s just whether one in here is better handicapped than him.

FAVOUR AND FORTUNE could be that as he is dropping into handicap company for the first time, though he has Grade 1 form next to his name. He was second to JANGO BAIE in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle and JANGO BAIE has franked the form since. He’s also won on ground varying from good to heavy, so he has to have a strong chance here. 

BIALYSTOK is the first of the Mullins contingent, though with him coming over to the UK, the handicapper hasn’t relinquished any pounds in the handicap from his poor County Hurdle effort. He’s run into some nice horses – notably SA FUREUR and ZARAK THE BRAVE – but 139 is a tough mark and could be up against it.

One horse Nicky Henderson fancied for the County Hurdle (before all his horses were badly out-of-form) is FIRST STREET. His third to LOSSIEMOUTH in the Unibet Hurdle on Trials Day is good form and he has come down the handicap from his days as a 150+ horse for running into the likes of CONSTITUTION HILL and RUBAUD. 

AFADIL and RUBAUD headline the Nicholls contingent for this contest, though preference would go to the former as the latter likes good ground and a description of soft will be in the going today. AFADIL looked like a winner at Aintree last week in the conditionals race but he couldn’t get the job done. It was a bunched finish as well which would suggest he isn’t the best handicapped horse in the world.

One who could have a few pounds up his sleeve is FLORIDA DREAMS for Nicky Richards. He has good course form and won the Grade 2 Aintree bumper last season, so he must have some class. PRIMOZ’ win yesterday shows he wasn’t beaten by bad horses, and back over two miles in this company will suit him down to the ground.

Verdict: L’EAU DU SUD as close to winning the County, that form is the best on offer and makes him the deserved fave and the one to beat. A victory here will be a huge contribution to the trainers title for big Dan.

2.40 GREENHAM STAKES

ZOUM ZOUM by ZOUSTAR who had a winner yesterday at the track, he mixes well with Danehill line mares. ZZ comes here unbeaten and the form of his last race is very solid.

BALLYMOUNT BOY was a good solid Gr2/Gr3 2yo. Beat ALASKAN GOLD on his last run as a 2yo.

MISTER SKETCH by TERRITORIES who is quite underrated as a Stallion. Second in the Mill Reef Stakes but that was a bunched finish and the form isn’t stacking up, albeit Haatem who was 5th that day bolted up in the Craven Stakes! Might need the run today and best watched.

SON by young superstar Stallion TOO DARN HOT, he was listed placed at 2. Yard in good form and you’d be hoping he has strengthened and improved over the winter. Not out of it but needs to improve on what he has shown so far.

ROOM SERVICE won the Weatherbys 2yo race on soft beating a couple of good yard sticks, Kevin Ryan knows when he’s got a good one and this lad certainly looks to get his pecker up. Nice horse who could be bang there.

ARMY ETHOS ran a shade disappointing on his seasonal return but that was after 257 days off the track, will hopefully improve from it but really needs to. Form of his Group 2 second is very good however.

WATCH MY TRACER has had the benefit of a recent run where he beat the 102 rated Orne. He looked good that day coming from off the pace. Interesting contender today, one at a price who could run well.

JAMES’S DELIGHT improved from having bollocks off it seems as he bolted in on his next start which was 18 days ago. Will be fit and ready. ALASKAN GOLD was beaten by BALLYMOUNT BOY as a 2yo, needs to improve. ESQUIRE looks a sprinter and this looks a fact finding mission for connections of EL BODON.

Verdict: Not a hugely exciting trial, I doubt ROSALLION or CITY OF TROY will lose much sleep over the winner of this. ZOUM ZOUM and SON should be in the mix but ROOM SERVICE improved with each run last year and the step up to 7f will suit. Each way safe play on what looks an open race.

15.55 GROUP 3 ALLEGED STAKES (IRELAND)

This race is named in honour of one of the 20th Century’s best race horses, the dual Arc winner ALLEGED owned by Robert Sangster.

10 have declared for the heavy ground contest over 1m2f, it was set to happen a few weeks ago, but they rearranged it for today. 

WHITE BIRCH, sent off 12/1 for the Derby last year, is the favourite and on form, you can see why. His third to AUGUSTE RODIN and KING OF STEEL (and ahead of THE FOXES and WAIPIRO) in the Derby is solid and he won fto last season. He is a solid favourite here, though his pedigree isn’t one to scream about. 

MAXUX and VILLAGE VOICE have form that interlink with each other as the former beat the latter at Fairyhouse in a Group 3 over 1m1f. Starting with MAXUX, she achieved an RPR of 114 during that Fairyhouse race which started to show why the FRANKEL filly cost 200,000gns as a yearling. 

She also won fto, so with a strong family behind her, a good run should be expected. As for VILLAGE VOICE, she beat JACKIE OH, a Group 1 Prix de l’Opera runner-up to BLUE ROSE CEN, on seasonal debut and she also finished the season with a Group 3 win in the Prix de Flore. She loves soft and she’s won on heavy, so conditions will suit her.

GREENLAND has good bits of form in the book, notably when third to BIG ROCK – last season’s six-length QEII winner - on seasonal debut before a win in the Group 3 Prix Greffulhe. He was then fourth to ACE IMAPCT before he won the Arc, though some of his best form comes on good ground and by SAXON WARRIOR, heavy ground might not be for him. 

At the bigger price, CRYPTO FORCE is very interesting. His last race came 574 days ago, but he beat ADELAIDE RIVER in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes and he even beat AUGUSTE RODIN on debut. However, the market isn’t too strong on him and he may need the run.

Verdict: not a betting race for us but WHITE BIRCH will love the heavy going.

RISK ON

Better from this section yesterday, two winners from three singles and the place part of the ew treble landing to yield a 100% return made for a good Friday.

There are LOADS of races on today, you don’t need to bet every race! Play the TOTE FANTASY to maintain an interest in the big races without the liability. Use code QHZ36G to find our league:

Todays bets are:

15.50 ECONOMICS & 16.55 NEVER SO BRAVE

Banker 2/1 double - both should just win.

17.55 DRAGON KING

Will be suited to conditions and should take all the beating.

19.50 UNCLE DICK

Laid out for the race.

Small 14/1 acca on the above horses.

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