Equinties - this is it

Gm Equinauts

This years trainers’ championship really has echoes of Michael Jackson’s ‘This Is It’ tour.

‘This Is It’ was long planned as Michael Jackson’s final concert residency, a final farewell to fans from one of the greatest performers in history. For Dan and the 24/25 jumps season, this was it, this was to be his first year as champion trainer to precede a long, strong history of British jumps training dominance.

An abstract metaphor, granted, it’s Michaels goodbye, for Dan’s hello.

But as we all know, Michael Jackson sadly died a week before the show, and now it seems Dan Skelton’s title bid has died a sudden death a week out too.

Can he hold on?

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

THIS IS IT

£24,289 is now what separates Dan Skelton’s lead from Wizard Willie as the master of Closutton bagged £18,726.50 with FUN FUN FUN and £22,780 with KISS WILL at Perth.

He also got PAGGANE to chase home FUN FUN FUN, sweeping up an extra £7,163.

So, as days go for Skelton in his charge for the title, yesterday was disastrous.

But he will be ahead going into Sandown. Just how long it lasts after the opener gets underway on Saturday, who knows?

Mullins only has one entry between now and Saturday, and that comes in the Perth opener where MAGIC MCCOLGAN could take home £4,357. In comparison, Skelton has 22 declared across Perth, Chepstow, Warwick, and Bangor over the next two days ahead of Sandown, with the likes of SNIPE, DOYEN QUEST, HIDDEN HISTORY, HELTENHAM, ROCK HOUSE, SAIL AWAY, and COCO MADEMOISELLE forming part of the team.

He could well be at least £50,000 ahead of Mullins heading into Saturday, whether that’s through a few winners or just the sheer number of runners collecting place prize money.

That hypothetical number seems pretty nice on paper, but it could well be knocked out by race three if GAELIC WARRIOR obliges in the Grade 2 Oaksey Chase (£45,560 to the winner), and Mullins also has LOMBRON, PAGGANE, and O’MOORE PARK entered for the Josh Gifford Novices’ Chase (race two, worth £20,812 to the winner).

But, what about the more immediate future? Which one of Skeltons could be worth an eye on today?

Well, HIDDEN HISTORY runs in the 15.39 at Perth today, and Skelton told the Post: “He’s in good form and won really well first time for us at Uttoxeter. The track should suit him and two and a half miles looks the right trip for him. Hopefully he can go very well.” We think that suggests Dan is banking on him to win.

DOYEN QUEST was poor at Cheltenham last week, but he returns to three miles and he is rated 130. That’s 5lbs above the mark he had when he bolted up at Cheltenham over three miles (beating GOWEL ROAD), and it’s 5lbs below the rating he had when fourth to LONG DRAW at the same track in December. This Class 3 race is easier, and he could be interesting.

SAIL AWAY had no chance when he unseated at the first in the Scottish Grand National, but he went off 11/1 that day having been 50/1 in the week building up to the race. With a 7lb claimer booked to do the steering, he could have a few pounds up his sleeve in the 18.40.

Finally, ROCK HOUSE has dropped 6lbs since April 2024 and he ran a nice race at Ludlow last month. That suggests he is coming back into form, and now returning to hurdles, he could find himself in the winners’ enclosure in the 17.05.

For King and country, best of luck, Dan.

ALMOST CONFIRMED

With the sheer number of Classic-entered Juddmonte-owned horses, it’s easy to forget which one is heading where. We have briefly talked about this topic, but at the time the quotes came in, nothing was confirmed from either the owner or trainer. 

Well, with the Guineas less than 10 days away, it’s worth revisiting where these horses are going, and thankfully, Barry Mahon has provided some fresh quotes to TDN.

Having previously said that connections wouldn’t be afraid of running two in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas, Juddmonte’s European racing manager said: “They're all left in and I think current plans are roughly that Field Of Gold will go to Newmarket and we're on weather-watch with the rest of them.

“Jonquil and Detain are both loosely pencilled in to go to ParisLongchamp [for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains] the following weekend, and Cosmic Year could go to the King Charles II on the Friday of the Guineas meeting in Newmarket, with a view to maybe going to the Irish Guineas after that. That's roughly where we're at but, if it looked like France was getting a lot of rain, like they are at the minute, we could divert Jonquil back to Newmarket.

“We just think Longchamp would set up nicely for him and because last year he bounced when making a quick reappearance, Andrew was keen to give him the extra week. If it looked like it was going to be good ground in France, we'll go there, and if not, we'll pull back into Newmarket.”

As for the fillies, he continued: “She is still on course for Newmarket,” Mahon said of Red Letter. “She's in good form and Ger [Lyons] is happy with her. She's very much on track.

“I think we're still leaning towards Longchamp with Zanzoun. Maybe if there was a deluge of rain in Newmarket, which nobody is telling me there's going to be, we might look at supplementing her, but I think we'll be sticking to Plan A and that is France.”
That’s a lot of quotes. It seems like Newmarket is for FIELD OF GOLD and RED LETTER, France is for JONQUIL, DETAIN, and ZANZOUN, and Newmarket (but in a different race) is for COSMIC YEAR.

We like this plan. The right horses are heading to the Newmarket Classics, COSMIC YEAR (who does have a small bit of carefulness around him) has his main target as the Irish Guineas, and Juddmonte have France covered.
Now that is a bosh.

THE YOUNGER O’BRIEN’S PLANS

Aidan O’Brien may have his fair share of Classic hopes this season, but what about his son, Joseph?

This could be quite the year for him. SCORTHY CHAMP is off to Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas, but are there any other horses to keep an eye out for the Classics?

Well, in his recent Racing Post stable tour, he nominated one that could have Epsom targets, and that horse is TENNESSEE STUD.

He said: “He won the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his last start and the feeling here was that he did it despite the ground as it was a real slog that day. He's wintered very well and has matured and progressed so we're very excited about him. He ran late last year so it was always the plan to miss the early Derby trials this season. He'll go to Leopardstown on May 11 for the Derby trial and from there on to Epsom. His pedigree has plenty of pace in it and is really more of a mile pedigree, even though he's out of a Sadler's Wells mare, so it wouldn't be absolutely guaranteed he'd get a mile and a half. We'll evaluate it after Leopardstown and Epsom.”

He has an interesting profile, and his form directly relates to another English 2000 Guineas runner.

That’s because the WOOTTON BASSETT colt was beaten by Jessica Harrington’s HOTAZHELL in a Group 2 in September, one month before TENNESSEE STUD won his Group 1 over in France. This also came before HOTAZHELL won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes in October.

Now, the Group 1 TENNESSEE STUD won was only a three-runner affair, so the form can be questioned (as could the other bits of form), but he is still pretty unexposed, and O’Brien seems to think plenty of him.

He’s getting a run in before Epsom, and he could be the potential Epsom Derby horse who is flying below the radar. 33/1.

Were there any other horses from the stable tour to mention?

Well, COWARDOFTHECOUNTY was highly thought of last year, though he didn’t quite achieve the top, top heights. Connections already have their eyes on the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.

GALEN, a winner of the Group 3 Alleged Stakes, probably didn’t show his full potential last year, so with a win under his belt last weekend, he could continue to improve.

And finally, SARACEN is being considered for the Classics, but they could wait for the Jersey. If they think this much of him, he must be a horse to watch this season, especially if he improves for experience.

RISK ON

An easy winner thanks to the well handicapped and lightly weighted TRALEE GIRL yesterday.

14.45 MAFTING

We don’t often do this but we’re cheating here and following the money on MAFTING. A market move like this in a novice event is a huge move and strong sign it’s yard money indicating the horse is ready and trying (that’s half the puzzle). His pedigree backs it up (in the context of this race), by up and coming TOO DARN HOT and out of an unbeaten mare who herself has produced winners over a trip, it’s the best pedigree in the race. Yard form a bit iffy which is a huge concern but they did have a winner yesterday. Maybe this horse has been working with it? 6/4.

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