Equinties - the York awards

Gm Equinauts

It’s the Monday after a big festival, and that only means one thing… the newsletter York Awards!

Best performances, trainer, jockey, plot, and, of course, the ones who didn’t perform so well.

Let’s dive in.

THE NEWSLETTER YORK AWARDS

FAVOURITE PERFORMANCES

ROYAL FIXATION – GROUP 2 LOWTHER STAKES (THURSDAY)

Yes, we have blue and gold-tinted glasses on fobvious reasons, but in the most impartial way possible, ROYAL FIXATION was very impressive in the Lowther.

For the first furlong, admittedly she looked in trouble for a few strides when William Buick first asked for an effort to simply lay up with the field, navigating from the wing. She latched herself on to the rear of the field (never great at York) when half way through the race Buick made up his mind and realised he was going to have to win the hard way and go around the field down the middle.

We were all watching and thinking, was she good enough to do that?

Well, we all knew the answer before the last furlong because as soon as she saw day light, her turbo’s kicked in to a different gear and she honestly never looked like losing.

SHE WAS A MACHINE.

She went past the hot fave AMERICA QUEEN as if Hughes' was stopping in glue. A breath-taking performance.

Her electric turn of foot and good power through having been so green in the early stages the line and given it was only her third-ever run after all, suggests there is so much more to come.

Her form got another boost yesterday when VENETIAN SUN won the Group 1 Prix Morny.

Is she a Guineas filly? The jury is still out as she’s so quick so why don’t we focus on her next assignment… the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.

The market for the race is a mirror image of the Lowther last month. VENETIAN SUN and TRUE LOVE are entered and hot faves, but Karl Burke thinks that yesterday’s Prix Morny winner will go to the Moyglare Stakes over seven furlongs, so that’s one less to worry about. The Cheveley Park is currently the plan for TRUE LOVE, however, she is entered elsewhere, plus she got absolutely spanked last time out so is on a big revival mission.

What we do know if ROYAL FIXATION is 100% being targeted for the Cheveley Park and you already know what we’re going to.

BRING OUT THE SPREADSHEET!

At 7/2, we’re going to do what we did last month and split stakes so we can start adding ROYAL FIXATION to every single we’re on for the next four weeks until the race.

The only danger to the bet at this moment in time is what the ground will do. We didn’t have that fear last month as the forecast was a mini-heatwave and she really needs quick ground. History is in a favour though as only two of the last ten running’s of the race have been on slower than good, most on quick. It’s a riskier play this time but one we’re happy to take given it’s such a clever way of betting.

Another 4 weeks of adrenaline build up. LFG!

MINNIE HAUK - GROUP 1 YORKSHIRE OAKS (THURSDAY)

As we said on Friday, MINNIE HAUK truly impressed us for the first time in the Yorkshire Oaks. That’s maybe a bit harsh on what she’s done so far this season. She is a dual Oaks winner, after all.But, the way she quickened away after ESTRANGE came to her and asked a serious question was very good, especially in the context of her being a potential Arc filly.

Interestingly, this season could really be the year of the girls in the Arc. Both MINNIE HAUK and WHIRL have good credentials for Ballydoyle, and KALPANA has a good chance for Juddmonte.

Before last week, we didn’t think she had the minerals for an Arc. Now, we do. That says enough about what she did in the Yorkshire Oaks.

DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE WEEK

LAMBOURN - GROUP 2 GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES (WEDNESDAY)

On the contrast to MINNIE HAUK, LAMBOURN, a dual Classic hero, certainly let punters down in the Great Voltigeur.

We’re comparing LAMBOURN and MINNIE HAUK together for two reason. They’re both trained by Aidan O’Brien, and they have both won two Classic contests without setting the world alight.

Now, as we say goodbye to York, one looks like the real deal, and the other needs to bounce back next time. LAMBOURN has always looked like a bit of a slow grinder of a horse, so he was there to be shot at if the right horse could get him at it from a long way out.

Funnily enough, his two stablemates, THRICE and STAY TRUE, probably didn’t help him as one sat in front and the other loomed upsides with under four furlongs to go, and this saw him come off the bridle fairly early. He ultimately didn’t have enough, and some nice horses passed him to force the Epsom and Irish Derby winner into fifth.
Depending on what SCANDINAVIA does, he could go to the Leger, but he now does have a bit to prove on his next start wherever he goes.

TRAINERS OF THE WEEK - HENRY DWYER/JOHN & THADY GOSDEN

Two (well, three, technically) trainers caught our eye from York this week, and it’s for very different reasons.

Let’s starting with Henry Dwyer, because he had to be fairly realistic this season.
He knew ASFOORA was a bit below herself when coming over to the UK, and from as early as Royal Ascot, the Nunthorpe Stakes was the big plan. Not the King Charles III Stakes that she won last year, and not the King George Qatar Stakes that she was second in, but the Nunthorpe at York. Woof.

He wanted to give his star mare time to come back into good form, and because of this, he basically used Ascot and Goodwood as preps, which is punchy.
But, it went and worked. She’s now a dual Group 1 winner in the UK, and she’s peaked in the second-half of the season when a lot of the sprinters that she takes on have already shown their hand.

Bringing her back over this year was a gamble, but it paid off. Fair play, Henry.
As for John & Thady Gosden, this is a pure numbers pick. Four winners, two seconds, and one third from 12 runners. That’s pretty good.

They got TRAWLERMAN to win the Lonsdale Cup when he was probably about 90%, SWEET WILLIAM chased him home, OMBUDSMAN bolted up in the Juddmonte, and FITH COLUMN continued his handicap progression.
That, by all accounts, is a job well done.

RIDE OF THE WEEK - RYAN MOORE ON STAR OF MEHMAS

Ryan Moore has balls of steel and the hands of prime Phil Mickleson. He’s clearly very good, but his ride on STAR OF MEHMAS in the fillies’ handicap on day one was pretty special.

The confidence to perform a dramatic hold-up ride with a horse carrying top weight in a big-field handicap is obscene, and the fact she got up on the near side away from the second and third on the far side was pleasing on the eye.

Moore certainly gave a few STAR OF MEHMAS backers a nice surprise, as she really didn’t look like winning until, well, she won!

EYE-CATCHERS

ARABIAN FORCE - WEDNESDAY 15.00 YORK

The final Classic of the year is just around the corner, and as we have already said, there are a number of horses who should be considered for the race and one of them is ARABIAN FORCE after his good run in the Great Voltigeur on Wednesday.

Much like LAMBOURN, he isn’t a ‘travelly’ type. He comes off the bridle early, and yet he finds so much for pressure. That could really suit the St Leger, and he really was staying on well down the outside in the Great Voltigeur. 1m6f against some new opposition could unlock some further improvement, and it’s definitely a race he can win.

COMMAND THE STARS - THURSDAY 16.45 YORK

Given a better ride, this lad would have won - simple. A group horse in the making for George Scott.

RISK ON

Friday is looking very strong as a betting prospect. To get the early prices before the newsletter readers have smashed them to bits, please subscribe to the premium newsletter - they will be sent out to premium subscribers first. Do NOT miss them.

Today there are two shorties who we absolutely cannot see losing should they at least run to the level of their debut performances.

13.45 OPHELIA GRACE & 14.10 GHOST MODE

Banker double - one bet and done today. Double and lever RF to 8’s - the first bet of the spreadsheet.

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