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Equinties - the Skeltons
BGP Capital
November 11, 2025
Gm Equinauts
Today we observed a minutes silence to remember.
Thank you to all who have served this country.
Let’s dive in!
HEADLINE ROUNDUP
TRICKY NOVICE CHASES
This is a statement that we (really) don’t make a lot, but we have to admit, we do not envy the BHA regarding the current novice chase scene in Britain. As we alluded to in our intro for yesterday’s newsletter, our novice chase system isn’t working.
The stats are there in black and white (we posted it yesterday but here’s a reminder):
A combination of multiple walkovers and small field sizes mean this year’s ‘Chasing Excellence’ series is far from what the name suggests.
Yesterday, for example, we had another walkover, and on Thursday at Newbury, JOSH THE BOSS was handed £9,241.75 just for being declared, even though he only ran at Warwick two days before. You have to hand it to connections, that was a smart move given they probably had absolutely no intention of running!
So, what’s the overriding problem? Why are we struggling to get horses to jump over fences, while Ireland have so many novice chasers (even if most of the field are trying not to get too close to a future Grade 1-winning novice hurdler in their first couple of runs in beginners’ chases?
Before we talk about what we think the issue is, we will say this. The quick ground that has plagued the start to this season really hasn’t helped. No trainer wants to run their good novice chasers on quick ground that ‘could’ (whether it’s true or not) jar them up on their first run of the year. That’s just plain fact.
We’ve had rain over the last week, and we’re about to get properly soaked this week, so maybe we might see an upturn in runners, but we’re not holding our breath, so here’s our take. Fundamentally, you can’t have more novice/beginners chases in this country while also allowing novice chasers to run in handicaps on their first three starts over fences. Ireland have a cut-and-dry rule – you must run in three chases (beginners or novice graded) before you can be allocated a handicap mark.
While the BHA sort of leaned into this type of thinking this season with the addition of more beginners chases and the removal of a few novice handicap chases, they didn’t go the whole hog. This has meant that our novice handicap chases have been alright to watch, in fairness, but our novice chases have been pretty shabby.
If the BHA want to make the novice chase system work, they should implement rules that mean novice chasers can’t run in novice handicap chases until they have had the required three runs, and this would force them to take each other on in novice or beginners’ chases. More novice handicap chases can be put on later through the season. They are ultimately good races, and you can often find a snip or two at a nice price/off a nice handicap mark. As much as this is a little bit like leaning over Irish racing’s shoulder in the maths exam and copying their answers, their product is currently better than ours.
Referring back to our opening comment, the BHA don’t have an easy position on this. This is surely something to look at now, and have proper discussions before the end of the season.
SUPREME OR TURNERS?
Did it surprise anyone else that MYDADDYPADDY was joint favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle before yesterday? He was sat alongside BAMBINO FEVER at 10/1 in the ante-post market and his initial market prominence might have originally bee driven by his reputation coming from the Skelton yard with whispers that he was working better than THE NEW LION.
After yesterdays performance, he is now clear favourite and to be fair to him, it’s probably warranted despite the price being too short at this stage. You can’t have any issues with the way he won yesterday. He sat right off the pace, moved menacingly into the race, absolutely winged the third-last, and then saw out his race with ease. It was visually very good!
The question to ask after yesterday is which race will Team Skelton look at for Cheltenham? The Supreme or the Turners? Or will it be the County Hurdle instead? This is Skelton, after all!
That’s obviously a joke, but Skelton is keen to keep this lad to two miles for as long as possible, and with the way he was speaking post-race, it’s as if he knows he will get further, it’s just how quickly they try him over further. He said: “He’s only as fit as all my novices are. I did explain to Dermot that he may take a blow and if he got beat, then he got beat, but it was class that got him through in the end.
“I'll run on soft ground but I definitely won’t run him on heavy. We hope to get him in the best shape we can for the spring and I know Dermot would dearly love to stay at two miles, and at the moment that doesn’t seem to be an issue.”
To be fair, having a bit of stamina for the Supreme is actually a good thing. While the Old Course is speedy, just with the atmosphere of it all on the first day of the Fez, being able to stay that extra half a furlong more counts for so much. He looks classy, and you can’t throw much shade his way. Does Skelton have another Grade 1 novice hurdle winner-in-waiting?
FAMILY HERITAGE
While we’re on the topic of the Skelton’s, has this season started to show us a glimpse of the future?
We already know with the right horses he can trade blows with Willie Mullins (think THE NEW LION stuffing FINAL DEMAND last year and THAT battle between the two plot horses LANGER DAN and GALOPIN DES CHAMPS up the hill), but there’s just something about his runners and stable this season that seems rather on the money.
The years of Paul Nicholls turning up, winning the British Trainers’ Title, and leaving are gone. He has no KAUTO STAR or DENMAN in the yard, and he hasn’t had that for more years than people may want to admit. Some might cheer at this but we don’t like to see the demise of his yard, or any for that matter. We want races! We can’t stand staring up at the betting board and seeing a Mullins hot shot at 2/1 on.
But his regression has clearly knocked his confidence. In the last few years, Nicholls has been almost scared to take on the big guns at Cheltenham (if he did, he would come up short). That’s not to say Nicholls can’t get fired up anymore, but we feel even he has conceded the title of ‘top dog’.
Skelton on the hand, seems to absolutely relish the Cheltenham challenge and that’s the competitive nature that is in his blood from his family.
Skelton hasn’t had that one “world beater” just yet. You know, the GALOPIN DES CHAMPS’, the STATE MAN’s or CONSTITUTION HILL’s who, on their very best day, are unbeatable. But mark our words, he is getting there… He’s only 38.
Who knows what THE NEW LION could be this season (we backed him last year and although we’re still pondering him this year for Champion Hurdle, he is clearly very good, and he could well improve to be the best) but Dan Skelton’s results, both on the big stage and the likes of yesterdays four-timer proves what he can do with the right ammunition.
Funding could be the only reason he doesn’t hit the heights (versus what he could do if money wasn’t an object). To have a yard full of stars, Dan needs to bury that old syndicate story where he was done for taking a cut on an over-inflated horse and gain trust from big owners again and then the BHA need to do their bit by pumping more money back into the sport and prize money. The prize money issue is a huge suppressant to British trainers’ bid to the top echelons of racing.
Several of the replies to our post on X regarding the rise of Dan Skelton were laughable and did nothing but exhibit a distinct lack of racing knowledge. The Irish dominance over racing is a fairly recent thing and while it’s been strong, it is simply cyclical. Mullins has been the powerhouse of it for the last ten years whilst he has managed to onboard big owners and acquire the best horses, but there was a time before that no one could touch the British.
With the likes of the rising new blood in the training-sphere such as the Skelton family or Ben Pauling or even Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, possibly even the champ AP McCoy…wait, sorrrrrryyyyyy, we mean Faye Bramley, the British jumps squad looks strong as f*ck and we wouldn’t bet against them in the near future.
Like him or lump him, Dan Skelton can go to the very top and as racing fans we could have a fiercely contested few years ahead of us.
What do we think? BRING IT ON! Dan to bring the Prestbury Cup home.
RISK ON
We’re all over the bumper play in todays bumper preview for premium subscribers.
Elsewhere we like:
13.35 GHOST DANCING & 15.55 RENOIR
A smaller than standard bet here on a debutant for King. The yard is flying and trained the mare who was a good winner on the flat and over hurdles. 11/4 against a weak fave. EW double with RENOIR in the last who can get back to winning ways against this lot. 16/1 ew.
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