Equinties - the master

Gm Equinauts

In the last few years, a lack of Ditcheat ‘superstars’ compounded by the increased and healthier competition in the trainer ranks (think Dan Skelton and Olly Murphy as two young guns on the up), has seen Nicholls lose both his grip on the British jump racing trainer championship and some respect from racing fans’ who’ve sought enjoyment at taking the piss at some of his big, expensive sales flops.

They laughed at him, made meme’s about the Caldwell horse and suggested he call it a day.

They did that to the 14x champion trainer.

They saw what was in front of them and let their emotions get the better of them without any consideration to the past or future. They forgot who Paul Nicholls was; they forgot about the 14x champion trainer titles; and for what they forgot about the past, they too ignored the future. They forgot about Pauls ability to hit the bulls eye two years into the future, they were ignorant to Paul plans.

They weren’t thinking at one bit and every one got a stark reminder of exactly who Paul Nicholls is.

Paul Nicholls is the master and you’ll do well not to forget that next time.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE NICHOLLS PLAN

The timeline of racing is littered with more Paul Nicholls winners than most, but he’s been around much longer than many of you will appreciate (conscious we have a very young readership). For seven years big Paul was runner up in the trainers championship behind mighty Martin Pipe, before managing to land his first trainers title in ‘06.

‘06 was when the flood gates opened for Paul and he’d go on to win another 13 more trainers titles but people forget it’s the hard work he put in in the 90’s which got him to where he is today.

He’s one of the best trainers the world has ever seen and within those 15 seasons of winning the trainers champ are stories of big pot win which demonstrate just how bloody good he is as a long term target trainer.

Take GREANATEEN for example. If you weren’t really into your racing, you’ll be forgiven for needing reminding who he is. He de-throned ALTIOR in the Celebration Chase and then came back 12 months later to retain his crown. Nicholls made that day his Gold Cup, his Derby. 24 months meticulous planning solely focused on two days, nothing else.

What a few weeks it’s been for Ditcheat. Not only did CALDWELL POTTER land the mother of all gambles at Cheltenham, but he backed it up at Aintree to give Paul his first Grade 1 winner before KALIF DU BERLAIS then went on to win his. A close second by REGENTS STROLL rounded off a brilliant Aintree meeting.

When everyone was laughing at Paul, he waited, stayed patient, trusted his process which has been so effective in the past and then BANG.

He’s the one laughing now.

And boy do his his team look very good for next year. So for a man who is able to think years ahead, who should we be looking at?

His Betfair debriefs every Monday morning are worth a watch, and he highlighted a few potential plans in this week’s edition.

Let’s start with our old friend, BRAVEMANSGAME. He ran a fine race in the Grand National, but he was only going to get home if he started on the second circuit. He just doesn’t quite stay… the trip of Aintree that is. He ran a blinder to be fairness but the last few furlongs simply stretched him. Great run.

Now they know he isn’t a Grand National horse, they will campaign him differently next season. With a plummeting handicap rating and a liking to the National course, next year’s Topham was labelled as a long, long-term target for the 10-year-old. That could be inspired! He will be 11 next year, so that should be considered.

As for his other Aintree horses, CALDWELL POTTER could well start in the Betfair Chase next season. Soft ground and a left-handed track are two positives, that’s for sure. He could be a Gold Cup horse in time, but let’s not get too carried away.

And GINNY’S DESTINY was given an interesting mention by the boss of Ditcheat. He ran in the Topham and went well for a while before making a mistake at the last fence. He’s rated 148 and will likely be dropped today in the handicap. Three miles in a handicap chase off a mark in the mid-140s could really suit him. Nicholls has always thought three miles could be for him.

He was put on the same level as STAGE STAR during his novice chasing season. Could he be one for the Coral Gold Cup?

THE MULLINS RAID

It’s on. After not trying for 90% if the British jumps season, Willie Mullins is readying a big team for the remaining meetings of the campaign. This starts with Ayr on Saturday.

KARGESE, ABSURDE, HIGH CLASS HERO, TULLYHILL, CAPTAIN CODY, C’EST TA CHANCE, FISHERY LANE, CHART TOPPER, KILL WILL, and more all have entries for Scottish Grand National Day, and Mullins has just the 11, yes 11, entered for the big race itself. Wtaf.

Skelton will be champion trainer one day. Paul Nicholls is probably a few years away from returning to the very top and Nicky Henderson could maybe make a charge next year, but Skelton is probably the one who is most likely to win the championship next year if all goes ‘normally’.

With Skelton just £100,000 ahead in the championship, isn’t it funny how we’ve ended up in this position? 

If STATE MAN had stood up in the Champion Hurdle, Mullins would be ahead. If CONSTITUTION HILL had stood up in the Aintree Hurdle, would he have denied LOSSIEMOUTH from winning £140,985? If Dan Skelton had taken SHE’S A SAINT out of her race at Aintree (which he was apparently very close to doing), Skelton would have a tougher fight on his hands.

All of these notable events and more have led us to a point where we have a proper scrap between Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton in the final few weeks of the British jumps season. We know Mullins is preparing a big squad, but will Skelton throw caution to the wind and fire out a big team?

In the Racing Post, he said: "We'll give it our best until the end of the season but I'm not going to run horses who shouldn't be running – we'll be sensible. Willie makes us all work harder, aim higher and that's what we'll continue to do. Hopefully our efforts are good enough this year but if they're not we'll try to increase them again next time, as the bar keeps getting higher."

To be honest, this duel is what the trainers’ title needs. It adds drama, relevance, and theatre to the championship when it tends to lack it throughout the first 90% of the season. Roll on.

HARNESSING HARRINGTON

We’ve started to talk about the Guineas picture over the last few weeks, so it’s only right to keep the updates about the Newmarket Classics flying in. The fresh news comes from the Jessica Harrington yard who could have both HOTAZHELL, the Futurity winner, and GREEN IMPACT, a Group 2 winner, running in the race.

HOTAZHELL had the form of his Futurity franked the other day when DELACROIX won the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, though GREEN IMPACT has very similar form to HOTAZHELL based on the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes where GREEN IMPACT beat DELACROIX by half a length.

So, what are the plans for these two? Well, Harrington gave us a clearer picture.

She said: “We're still waiting to see but the vague plan is ground permitting, as they've had no rain in Newmarket for about six weeks. Ground permitting, Green Impact will go to the English Guineas and the plan at the moment is that Hotazhell will go to the French Guineas because the owners are coming over.

“If those plans don't work or they get changed, they are both in the Irish Guineas. Green Impact is also in the Dante at York over a mile and a quarter. That's what we're thinking at the moment, but everything could change.

“They've got to work to get there and the ground's got to be right on the day. They both go on good ground. I think both of them will go on anything but extremes–too quick or too soft.”

So, it looks like GREEN IMPACT is the one who could be heading to Newmarket.
This makes us wonder if HOTAZHELL is a bit ground dependent. He won the Futurity on soft and his dam won on good to soft. HOTAZHELL also won two Group races on good to yielding and has never raced on good to firm.

In fairness, GREEN IMPACT’s dam placed on both soft and soft to heavy, so that’s something to consider going forward if Newmarket does turn up on the rattling quick side.

With HOTAZHELL priced at 20/1 and GREEN IMPACT bigger at 33/1, they look like interesting additions to any Classic this season, but it looks like the latter is more likely for Newmarket.

More:  https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/france-the-likely-destination-for-hotazhell-with-green-impact-on-newmarket-duty/

RISK ON

16.25 POWEROFJET

Finally broke his maiden when well backed at Carlisle last time out. Absolutely hacked up. Their excuse would perhaps be ‘break’ or ‘going’, but we think it was simply the first time it was off. To the eye, it looked like he had loads left in the tank (and this race is arguably weaker than last time out) so we expect him to follow up at even money!

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