Equinties - the Grand National

Gm Equinauts

Half a billion sets of eyes will be on the most exciting steeplechase in the world, Grand National today,

and it’s a WIDE open race.

Let’s dive in.

BIG RACE PREVIEW

13.20 3M CLASS 1 HANDICAP HURDLE

CATCH HIM DERRY reps a yard who have harvested this race in the past, Dan’s won three from the last five. He’d have been a lot closer to winner the Pertemps with a more prominent ride. We wonder, did the ride reflect unbridled confidence in the horse? If so then he could be dangerous today but he needs to improve and we think he’s the wrong fave. Short at 4’s.

JERIKO DU REPONET was our pick in the Pertemps. He finished in front of CATCH HIM DERRY (CTD) that day but Harry gave CTD too much to do. The market suggest they can reverse the form.

ACT OF AUTHORITY isn’t the biggest horse hence why he’s stuck to hurdling, but what he lacks in size he makes up for in bravery and has a big engine. He came from the clouds to finished second in the Martin Pipe but watch the replay - around the turn you’d never ever think he’d be in with a chance. Jockeys claim effective today, not like last time out. Huge player given the trip will be right up his street.

BILL JOYCE looked like a non-trier last time at Cheltenham and they’ve saved him for this. If he can cope with the ground he could be anything over this trip.

TIMMY TUESDAY reps Gordon Elliott who is having a mare this season. He looks like this new trip is just what he needs but we can’t touch Gordon’s horses.

We think the market has this race right and the winner will come from the top but of the rest RUSHMOUNT looked bloody useful last time out. Obviously this race is a higher demand but to the eye he looked very good and will love this ground.

Verdict: This is tough and so intriguing, asking the question - do you go with potential plot jobs or the proven horse? ACT OF AUTHORITY would have gone a lot closer with a more positive ride in the Martin Pipe, form which has been franked and BO ZENITH looks a trip hike plot, where as RUSHMOUNT won well last time and looks on the up. ACT OF AUTHORITY and RUSHMOUNT for us.

13.55 2M 4F GRADE 1 NOVICES’ HURDLE

LULAMBA is out and his absence really opens up the race.

HORACES PEARL is the new market favourite. For all he is a fragile horse he’s five from five and he’s won four of those races on good to soft. His form with TRIPOLI FLYER took a hit yesterday, and that was the big form line to focus on. He might just lack the class here.

REGENT’S STROLL might also lack a form line here and there, though he did finish fourth in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle, a race that will be put under the microscope when BILL JOYCE runs off 136 in the opener. Paul Nicholls has admitted that he gets “revved”, so will he really be able to handle the atmosphere of Grand National Saturday? Unsure.

KOKTAIL DIVIN has taken a walk in the market from 4/1 to 10/1 despite looking good at Leopardstown in March. He has form with KAWABOOMGA, WILLIAM MUNNY, and KAID D’AUTHIE, which shouldn’t be underestimated, but this is a big jump up in class. He’s drifted to a tempting price, however.

Stuart Edmunds says MIAMI MAGIC is “very happy with both him and the quicker ground”, and he could be an interesting player based on some of his performances this season. He bolted up at Kempton on nice ground in November and he did the same at Fakenham. His POTTERS CHARM form isn’t too bad, and that came on soft ground in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle. He’s an interesting player.

The Irish have some big prices in here, notably HONESTY POLICY and KAPPA JP PYKE. Do they have chances? HONESTY POLICY has similar form lines to KOKTAIL DIVIN but they are less impressive, and KAPPA JY PYKE was stuffed in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Hurdle. Good ground is a question mark for him based on form and his pedigree.

It’s hard to see the case behind FUNICULI FUNICULA (handicap next season, perhaps?) and MOON PHASES, so we’ll give a final nod to CASTLE CARROCK and GOOD AND CLEVER. GOOD AND CLEVER could well be the best maiden hurdler in training, but he probably wants softer ground. His KOPEK DES BORDES form is notable, and this has been a plan. As for CASTLE CARROCK, he beat DIVA LUNA when she wasn’t on her best game, and she showed yesterday that she might not have the ability to lay up to the geldings. That would be a concern for us, though CASTLE CARROCK did win his bumper on good.

Verdict: MIAMI MAGIC back on quick ground should give a spin for your money but wouldn’t be a strong view.

14.30 2M 1F CLASS 1 HANDICAP CHASE

IMPERIAL SAINT loves the track being 3 wins out of 3 appearances here. He’s creeping up the handicap but looks to be equally improving and there is a sneaky suspicion he wasn’t off last time out, in prep for today.

CRUZ CONTROL only been seen 3 times since winning this last year, up 3lbs since then. Needs to put a below past performance behind him.

HAPPYGOLUCKY ran a blinder at the festival to be 4th, that’s good form but he’s 11 now and age could have caught up with him.

DOCPICKEDME seems to be in fine form, jock takes off a handy 5lbs.
LE MILOS doesn’t find it easy getting his head in front but he did win two starts back and was a good 6th lto. Risky win bet, each way claims at best.

RICHMOND LAKE made a mistake at Cheltenham which cost him his chances. He’s a good horse and loves the track but yard form is a concern.

WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT is a bit of a boat but he jumps and stays well and the ground is fine for him.

CHARLIE UBERALLES out of the handicap and pulled up lto so has a lot to find.

Verdict: Very tough, competitive race to the eye but there are many reasons, we think, to draw lines in most of the horses leaving us fairly sweet on IMPERIAL SAINT and WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT.

15.05 3M GRADE 1 LIVERPOOL HURDLE

Stayers Hurdle form step forward. TEAHUPOO was just denied by his old foe BOB O. An admirable run considering Gordon wasn’t in good form. Problem now is that Gordon still isn’t producing the winners. 3 lengths off Lossiemouth in December reads much better now although LOSSIEMOUTH looks like a different animal since that run. Ground would be a concern and the likely reason he is a bit soft in the market but has a back of running a monster race. 3 times he has been out of the places, twice it has been in April, go figure.

THE WALLPARK was 3rd in the stayers. He had been off since the end of December, so he is untitled to improve for that outing. On recent history, he has flourished on his second start after a break. So possibly today is the time to catch him on ground he will like. Three miles seems to have improved him and he is proving consistent but lacking that big win on his CV.

HIDDENVALLEY LAKE was in front of THE WALLPARK in December, the Long Walk Hurdle. Slight concern for that form line now.

KITZBUHEL is an unexplored type. 3 runs in France and 2 in Ireland, which has yielded 3 wins. He’s only a 5 year old. God knows what he is capable of. Ground would be a query and his form ties in very closely with KOPECK DE MEE in France, with KARAM LE ROUGE beating KITZBUHEL and KOPEK then beating KARAM LE ROUGE, on that particular form line this will be very hard to win.

STRONG LEADER for Murphy won this last year. Skipped the festival and it’s his second run off wind surgery, which is key. Capable sort who has taken the same route through the Cleeve hurdle.

HOME BY THE LEE never had the chance to get in the game at Cheltenham. Unseating his rider. We sort of know what he is capable of but have never really seen it on these shores, rotten luck at Cheltenham and the only time he has ran at Aintree he was pulled up on Good to soft ground. A grade 1 winner over the Christmas period and has twice beaten his old sparring partner BOB O, not bad form now the stayers hurdle has been run.

Big boy Dan will be hoping GWENNIE MAY BOY has the talent to win such a competitive race. Rated 149 he falls a long way short of his classier rivals, but he’s only 7 years old. His form with BEAUFORT looks good, HIDDENVALLEY LAKE and The WALLPARK tie in with BEAUFORT as well. The Skeltons horse comes out favourably, but is it the winning form line we want to be on.

ALTOBELLI is another 7 year old that looks to have heaps of improvement in him, but will it be today. The odds suggest it’s best to watch him. Harry Fry’s form is uninspiring, zero winners from 8 runners, but GIDLEIGH Park did come second earlier in the week. Looks like a horse that loves Ascot (right handed), struggled at Aintree last year and may be one for the future instead of today. We’ll see.

BUDDY ONE was second in this last year at a juicy price. Probably place claims at best, and if you like him maybe back him in running. MONMIRAL missed Cheltenham after a minor setback, the ground has probably gone against him. SOUNDS RUSSIAN looks like he is here to get a few owners badges and a nice lunch on a big day of racing.

Verdict: HOME BY THE LEE age is really off putting, because his form over Christmas puts him bang in contention. TEAHUPOO is obviously more than capable of winning this but suspect the stayers might have taken a lot out of him. So there are two for the verdict, THE WALLPARK and GWENNIE MAY BOY.

16.00 THE GRAND NATIONAL

I AM MAXIMUS is last years winner, he runs off 8lbs higher than that win. He’s not a great jumper and missed his prep run. Quicker conditions today, he’ll need to move his legs faster to back his win up. That’s a big unknown but boy did he win it well last year!

IROKO is many people’s selection in the race, and we can see why. That Mildmay Novices’ Chase form from last year is red hot alongside INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, HEART WOOD, and CHIANTI CLASSICO, and this has been a year-long plan. 152 is workable, the question marks are trip and jumping consistency. If you like him though you might also like the look of TWIG at a whopper price!

Another JP horse top of the market…PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS will like the ground. Of his 6 wins, 5 have been at 3 miles. Interesting contender.

MINELLA COCOONER stays well and has a bit of class. He’s a big ride for Jonathan Burke to pick up. Big chance.

STUMPTOWN comes here off the back of a good win at Cheltenham in the X-Country. Big chance.

HEWICK is a past King George winner. If you didn’t know - he was bought for only €850 and has won nearly a million in prize money! Will love the good ground and is a smart little horse in his perfect conditions

There’s no doubt INTENSE RAFFLES would be shorter if soft was in the going description. He’d also be shorter if Willie Mullins trained the ‘Double Green’ representative and not Thomas Gibney, but that’s by the by. He’s a thoroughly unexposed improver who beat IROKO in France all those years ago, and his spin behind NICK ROCKETT lto was very promising. The ground is the question mark.

VANILLIER is well practiced in this race but might find things too quick.

HYLAND is a novice but a year old than NOBLE YEATS when he won. He’s been a revelation this season and we’ve been on two of his wins, both at Cheltenham. He’s a good ground horse only and is best suited to leading. His last run was a car crash - you could tell Nico wanted to get up with the pace but couldn’t owed to a rough dn tumble first lap. When we thought he was going to be pulled up, Nico nursed him through the race to finish second - that was amazing. We like this horse a lot but he needs to have his own way - and that doesn’t happen in the National unless Nico sets off first.

BEAUPORT for the Twiston Davies team has won the Midland Grand National last year. Ground is fine, but he is an old time high mark, although in saying that he is in the form of his life.

KANDOO KID heads a strong team for Paul Nicholls in the National, and the master of Ditcheat is in good form this week. He’s already had a spin over these fences before, one just wonders if he has much wiggle room in 152. Should be fine on the ground.

MEETINGOFTHEWATERS was a fancied horse for this race last year, and he arrives on the same handicap mark. That point is ultimately the worry; he couldn’t win last year, so why should he this year? He won his Paddy Power Chase on softer ground, and Mark Walsh has chosen PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS. Nope.

MINELLA INDO now a 12yo has had a few days in the sun noticeably being a Gold Cup winner, he was 3rd last year and runs off 1lbs lower.

THREE CARD BRAG has been described as lazy and might need slower ground. Nice horse to follow though.

NICK ROCKETT beat INTENSE RAFFLES last time out but is worse off on the weights. Stays longer than the mother in law!

GRANGECLARE WEST is lightly raced for a 9yo, was second in the Irish Gold Cup lto. Ground fine, has a good chance at juicy odds.

SENIOR CHIEF was thought of as a National horse last year by Henry de Bromhead, but it’s taken a year longer for the plan to materialise. That extra experience will do him good, and he won on good ground at Cheltenham in October. One gets the suspicion that there are better handicapped horses in the field, notably MINELLA COCCONER, who beat him in a beginners chase at Navan.

THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE for Paul and the McNeill family. Limiting belief that he has the minerals to be winning a Grand National. He was 4th in the Scottish Grand National two years ago.

APPRECIATE IT is a past Supreme winner, stamina is a big question mark and his mark isn’t kind.

BRAVEMANSGAME has had a fine career, King George winner and a second in the Gold Cup. He’ll go out on his shield.

DUFFLE COAT was running well in the National Hunt Challenge Cup before being brought down. Might have a squeak at an extended place at a good price on ground he needs.

HITMAN will be running on fumes towards the end. Furthest he has ran is 3 miles and was pulled up, that was in the King George. Hope someone tells him it’s 4 miles 2 furlongs today.

FIL DOR – will he stay? The immediate answer is no as he didn’t look in love with three miles at Fairyhouse two starts ago. He was also beaten by EL FABIOLO and SENECIA lto which isn’t superb form. Not an amazing chance.

MONBEG GENIUS is a nice staying chaser but this far is an unknown.

TWIG is a good price at 50’s. His form with CHIANTI CLASSICO over fences looks good and his recent runs over hurdles suggests Pauling has been plotting this race for a while! Ground perfect.

KANDOO KID got the better of BROADWAY BOY in the Coral Gold Cup, but BROADWAY BOY now gets a 5lb swing in the weights for a narrow enough defeat. They’ve run this horse into the ground over the last season and a half, and he doesn’t look chucked in off 150. The Twisters once thought he was a Gold Cup horse – if he can put behind his Ultima run, he might have a squeak.

STAY AWAY FAY is the horse no one wants to ride. Bryony Frost said no, Johnny Burke said no, but Paul O’Brien said yes. PU, PU, PU, beaten 44 lengths is his recent form; that doesn’t scream ‘National winner in waiting’. He’s also unsure on the better ground. Not one of the best candidates.

CHANTRY HOUSE is now 11 years old and ran 24 times, weirdly he has never filled the runner up spot. Even wins or bombs out. Maybe best watched today.

COKO BEACH needs softer going.

CELEBRE D’ALLEN knows this course very well and makes him over priced at 100/1.

ROYALLE PAGAILLE loves soft ground, won’t get that today. His flame is going out, he’s starting to look like he doesn’t love the game.

CONFLATED rank outsider, one time Cheltenham festival winner, probs best left alone.

IDAS BOY reps Richard Phillips. It would be great for the team if he could get a great spin around! He’s had a prep over hurdles since coming from Gordon Elliott’s and he did land the Midlands National (at Kilbeggan) on good to yielding in July. He likes the surface, it’s just whether he has wiggle room in 151.

HORANTZAU D’AIRY is one of a million cast offs from Mullins and should be bigger than 100/1.

Verdict: Could play a load in this but on the ground we’re going to go with HEWICK and a good ew swing on TWIG at a whopper price!

17.00 2M GRADE 1 NOVICES’ CHASE

Arkle form is on display in a big way in the Maghull Novices’ Chase, but will it hold up? Let’s assess those runners first.

L’EAU DU SUD is the favourite and Dan Skelton is putting on the first-time cheekpieces. He maybe got to the front too soon last time, but he still travelled well into the Arkle. His win over RUBAUD in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase wasn’t slick, but he won the Arkle Trial on good earlier in the season. Solid..

ONLY BY NIGHT finished ahead of him in the Arkle, and that was no fluke. She collared L’EAU DU SUD after the last and maintained her effort only to be done by JANGO BAIE late. JANGO BAIE didn’t let the form down in the Manifesto – he ran a fine race on Thursday – so the Arkle form should be feared. This will be the fastest ground she has tackled, and she won on soft before, so that will be interesting.

TOUCH ME NOT is the final Arkle runner, but he has a different thing to navigate. He was well-beaten at Cheltenham having been well-beaten by L’EAU DU SUD and MAJBOROUGH previously this season. He’s come in for a bit of money at big prices and he can go on this ground, but he has some form to reverse with L’EAU DU SUD.
What about the non-Arkle form?

It starts with KALIF DU BERLAIS. He’s come in for money, though he did disappoint on heavy ground in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase. This will be a completely different test, so his last run can be forgiven. Will he handle the ground? He made hard work of his Newbury win in November on nice ground when beating TEDLEY (rated 125), but that was his first run back after a heavy fall. His run next time at Cheltenham was smart and we think that’s the performance to beat.

SPECIAL CADEAU is interesting. He won his chasing debut last time at odds of 66/1, and that doesn’t scream Grade 1 winner in waiting. But he did it on good ground, and some of the speeds he clocked would put him in good stead for this test. He also beat TOUCH ME NOT comfortably over hurdles and his form with GORGEOUS TOM has worked out well. Keep an eye on this one could run a big race.

BROOKIE completes the field. Why Anthony Honeyball has chosen here over the Red Rum, who knows? He is a nice horse, but this looks like a prize money exercise, and he could be one for a handicap next season.

Verdict: We’re all over KALIF DU BERLAIS in this for big Paul and his happy bunch of owners.

17.35 GRADE 2 BUMPER

LE LABO is favourite in an open market. If he’s anything like his half bother will front run and skip along the ground playing catch me if you can.

GREEN SPLENDOUR looks a good stayer in the making but might find this all too quick for him today.

MOSSY FEN ROAD is a half to FURY ROAD. Was an easy winning bet for us last time out and he looked a good horse. Ground no issue. Player to maintain unbeaten record.

KOKTAIL BRUT reps Gordon Elliott’s yard who are in stinking form. Nice enough pedigree and he might be better on this ground. Can’t have him on yard form.

SCOPE TO IMPROVE will be a fast ground specialist and gets it today. That puts him in the mix.

KILWAUGHTER looked good on debut when beating a green horse of Gordon Elliott’s. Moved yards since so could be improved with new trainer. Ground perfect.

QUAVISTE has good form in the book and Dan Skelton knows how to train winners! He’ll be ridden cold and Harry will swoop late to try pick them all off one by one down the long home straight.

Of the rest, Neil King has won this before and runs STORMING GEORGE but he really needs to improve.

Verdict: MOSSY FEN ROAD and QUAVISTE are the two bumper selections.

RISK ON

Like yesterday we’ll use a small betting bank to bet all the preview horses with strongest views on ACT OF AUTHORITY and KALIF DU BERLAIS.

Else where we like:

15.20 AUDIENCE

Meydan for this one.Highest rated horse in the the race and goes well fresh. A dry winter would have helped his prep and stall 10 in a nice position to be in. Will go off like a scolded cat and should be hard to peg back. 7/1.

Good luck today!