Equinties - The Craven day 1

Gm Equinauts

Oh, Newmarket, it’s good to see you back!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

O’BRIEN’S DECISIONS

Aidan O’Brien has had some decisions to make ahead of this year’s Classics.

THE LION IN WINTER was too far behind to make the Guineas, there’s no horse like CITY OF TROY in the ranks ahead of the season starting, and he has horses like HENRI MATISSE, TWAIN, and EXPANDED to juggle.

So, with the British and Irish press invited over to Ballydoyle yesterday, we got a few updates on some of these horses.

So, let’s start with THE LION IN WINTER. He’s still missing the Guineas, as expected, but it seems like all roads lead to the Dante for him ahead of the Derby. Even if he was a bit of a late starter, these signs look more positive.

O’Brien said: "The Lion In Winter isn't going to the Guineas, he'll go to the Dante. We're very happy with him. He'll probably be 80 or 90 per cent for the Dante and if that goes well then we'll see what the lads want to do, but the Derby would probably be the plan.

"If we go a mile and a quarter in the Dante, we'll have a little idea if he'll stay and I'd imagine Ryan [Moore] will ride him patiently. He'll come forward a lot from the Dante, but we'll have a feel about going to the Derby then."

There would be no surprise if he didn’t win the Dante, and to be honest, we’re still not sold on his Derby credentials due to his slightly halted prep.
TWAIN is still en route to the Guineas, so he will be the number one Ballydoyle hope. O’Brien continued: “If Twain won the Guineas, there's a good chance the lads will want to go to the Derby with him for obvious reasons."

TWAIN certainly isn’t the typical Ballydoyle ante-post Guinea favourite, mainly due to the relatively short space of time between his debut win and his Group 1 win in France. He wasn’t a hype horse before his track debut, either. It’ll be interesting to see how he fairs.

Although THE LION IN WINTER will miss Newmarket, the race against time for LAKE VICTORIA in the 1000 Guineas is getting better, according to the master trainer.

“Exactly has had a run, so the plan would be to go (to Newmarket) with her, and Lake Victoria is on the way back. We stepped her up a couple of weeks ago and she’s really coming – she could be there in time.

“If she wasn’t, she could go to the Curragh on the Monday (Athasi Stakes), but it’s very possible that she could be there in time and if that happened Exactly could go to the French Guineas instead.”
There’s a level of ambiguity in his words, but the quotes look positive. Eyes on.

TWO DIFFERENT STAYERS

KYPRIOS. This year, he’s a seven-year-old entire coming off the back of an unbeaten season, running to RPRs of at least 120 on five occasions last year. Impressive stuff. He’s getting no younger, but his season looks to be pretty cut and dry as to which races he’ll be running in. Or is it?

O’Brien said: "He'll go to Navan [Vintage Crop Stakes], Leopardstown [Saval Beg] and then to Ascot [Gold Cup], but if we are as successful as last year, we might have a look at the Arc instead of the Cadran."
That’s right, the Arc has been mentioned this early in the season. Weird one really.

He hasn’t raced at 1m4f since May 2021, and he is an out-and-out stayer. Are they potentially looking at Longchamp’s feature race purely because this could be his final season, and it’s worth trying for the hell of it? Or do they think he can actually win the race? Or, do Ballydoyle simply lack a natural Arc candidate at this stage? Maybe LOS ANGELES could go back, of course.

We think it’s the former, but who knows with Aidan O’Brien? If he puts in another season that is remotely close to last year, then we are in for a real treat.

But, is there an up-and-coming stayer that could rise to the very top ranks? Yes, we’re talking about PALLADIUM because he has changed yards ahead of his Flat campaign.

Nicky Henderson’s recent Triumph Hurdle hopes is now in the care of the Gosdens, and Royal Ascot is firmly the target. Not the Gold Cup, but a 1m4f race instead for the older horses.

Henry Lascelles, racing manager to Lady Bamford, said: “Palladium has recently moved to John and Thady Gosden where he has settled in well by all accounts.

"The plan is to prepare him for Royal Ascot with the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes as an obvious target, but whether he’ll have a run beforehand, we’ll have to see."

He’s thoroughly unexposed as a stayer now back in the Flat ranks. He obviously won the German Derby before finishing a fine sixth of six behind REBEL’S ROMANCE in September. If he improves for a trip later in the year, he could be the one to keep an eye on.

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