Equinties - Tabor money down

Sponsored by UK Meds.

Gm Equinauts

Quiet day yesterday on the betting front but the heavy ground exposing horses who need summer ground make for some good opportunities for the more experienced traders amongst you to lay horses.

TESSY LAD was never going to go in the ground at Hereford yesterday. Why? For the exact same reason Paulings is selling off in the Ffos Las opener - AUSTRALIA is a crap NH sire and this thing will most likely get stuck in the mud. Only trouble is, are there any in behind trying?

The money horse in the opener is for Derham’s runner. Derham got his fledging training career off to a flying start with a first runner first winner in SEELOTMOREBUSINESS.

A trainer no doubt using Paul Nicholls’ methodology, Derham is defo one to keep on the right side of given his parents will be pumping his yard full of money.

Let’s dive in.

Headline Roundup

More gambles

The Christmas trees might be coming down but the yards are still landing their Christmas gambles, albeit belatedly, and Kempton was the host of two sizeable gambles last night.

The messages that big bookmaker and gambler Michael Tabor was moving size on his flew round all day and as a consequence the price on TWIRLING squeezed all day forcing a big sell-off on the odds-on Godolphin fave STAR GUEST.

You’d be brave to follow the money because on paper (breeding only) you’d have thought Tabor’s CHURCHILL needed further. In fact, I think it’s because of this, punters continued to get stuck into the Godolphin horse just before the off, only to see their dreams shattered and the early money proved right as TWIRLING got up in the closing stages (no doubt her stamina reserves the reason she landed the gamble on that long ass Kempton straight).

It was a nice winning debut to kick start her promising career in what is probably a race to follow. Eyes on SAPPHIRE SEAS who finished well having given up 1538362 lengths at the start, that thing will be winning.

What was the other gamble?

Well, two hours later, Hollie Doyle delivered a peach of a ride on the Roger Teal trained and previous BGP gamble horse, SISTERS IN THE SKY, to land the second big gamble of the day at very similar prices to the earlier touch (7’s into about 2/1, 3’s SP which doesn’t seem big but it is as a % of market volume it really is).

Doyle was six lengths down and last off the bridle two furlongs from home, but the four-year-old SHOWCASING gelding powered down the outside to get up in his final strides. 

Big well done to connections. LOVE IT.

Tolworth fave OUT

LUCCIA, the short-priced favourite for this weekend’s Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, was ruled out of the race by trainer Nicky Henderson due to a dirty scope.

The 6/4 ante-post favourite for the race produced a bad scope and Henderson was unprepared to run his mare in the hot contest – the Winter Million Mares’ Novice Hurdle could be an alternative for her or even the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle in February against the boys could be another possible option. 

But would she have won? 

The five-year-old mare has won three times in her career, two bumpers and one hurdle debut in Listed company at Newbury. She comfortably beat SHE’S A SAINT lto, the only other horse to be backed in the race, but she was soundly beaten at odds-on at Taunton on her next start. POETIC MUSIC was unfancied in the market on the day and duly finished 11 lengths behind. 

Compare that with the now new favourite, AUTHORISED SPEED, he has the Champion Bumper form and his last two runs over hurdles in slop were good, even when he nearly stacked it at the last against IMMORTAL who looks a nice type for Nicky Henderson. 

He’d have had to give 7lbs to LUCCIA if she ran.

Add TAHMURAS for Paul Nicholls into the equation and the potential Irish raider in ARCTIC BRESIL and this year’s Tolworth looks to be one of the most competitive renewals in years, one that simply wouldn’t have been a walkover for LUCCIA meaning 6/4 was probably way too short.

O’ so close for O’Regan

The money came for his mounts but O’Regan’s raiding of British soil yesterday proved fruitless. Had he won, the veteran jockey would have been the first ever jockey to bag a winner at every single jumps track in Britain and Ireland.

Come back soon, Denis.

So, who is our new sponsor?

UK Meds is an online clinic where you can get medications delivered to your door. Handy if you can’t be arsed to have those awkward convos with your doctor face to face!

UK Meds has just won the distribution rights to MYRKL and you are the first to hear about it!

Myrkl is a miracle pill that makes you feel fresh the next day, after the fun of the night before.

I'm serious. It works and that's the only reason they're sponsoring the newsletter. I swear by it so much, I reached out to UK Meds asking if I could work with them - and here we are now, plugging it to you.

This newsletter is powered by UK Meds.

Ffos Las bumper

I’m pretty sure there’s only three horses to look at here and ROGER POL ain’t one. He’s looking exposed and I just haven’t been enamoured with his runs.

The three I like are the Venetia fave SOLE SOLUTION, the JP horse SMART CASUAL and Twiston Davies’ NORMAN FLETCHER.

SOLE SOLUTION is the full brother to EASY AS THAT who I think is a very nice horse. He won two bumpers easily and at this moment in time the market suggests his little bro can too.

JP’s will love the slop today being by BLACK SAM and his mum is a half to MASTER TOMMY TUCKER who, although was a fruitloop, was also a beast so the blood is there.

Lastly, Twiston Davies’ horse NORMAN FLETCHER is a half to very good bumper horse SUPER SIX and carries absolutely fuck all weight for his age allowance. He is only 4 though and miiiiight be a lot weaker than his peers.

As usual, the market will be telling before the off but I’m siding with Venetias 2/1 or JP’s currently 10/3. Honeyball can’t buy a winner atm but that’s not to say he can’t get his first winner for over a month today (he win the race last year) - and the money will speak volumes for this one in particular.

Todays best stats

RAMZ in the 13.15 has had his nuts off and Haynes is >1 in 3 when running horses after the cruelest cut of them all. Tough race with only 6 runners though.

Snowden and Sheehan own a near 40% sr when teaming up at Ffos Las and they team up with SPITFIRE GIRL today in the 15.00. Race tight on numbers though.

SHAMSHON in the 18.30 is 12 now but too well handicapped to draw a line through. Trainer is 2 from 4 at track all time.

Risk on

I’ll be watching the bumper market.