Equinties - super siblings

Gm Equinauts

We’re getting closer… 4 weeks where dreams are made or ruined….probably ruined.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

MULLINS MEDIA DAY

The established media were down at Closutton yesterday for the Willie Mullins media day and learned absolutely nothing.

The one thing we did notice from the barrage of regurgitated content coming from his yard was his obsession over the horses pedigree’s, something that this newsletter has a particular focus on. Makes sense.

No important information regarding BALLYBURN or FACT TO FILE was revealed, but Mullins kept them entertained but offering up a few ‘dark horses’.

The main one was for SA MAJESTE, a JP McManus-owned hurdler who beat NOBLE YEATS by over four lengths on his latest start. 

Having come over from France where he had two starts, one of which was a win, he was sent off the 13/8 favourite on stable debut for Mullins at the Punchestown Festival but was very disappointing. On his seasonal reappearance this year, he jumped fluently over 2m4f on heavy ground and fairly beat the Grand National winner who has since gone on to win the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day. That is good form and he looks likely for either the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe.

As for other Mullins outsiders away from the norm, he was particularly sweet on the chances of YOU OUGHTA KNOW in the Champion Bumper. This year hasn’t seen Mullins have a standout bumper horse, which has been a bit weird, but his first run for 181 days at the DRF in the Grade 2 Future Stars Bumper certainly impressed the master of Closutton. He said: “I thought that was a hell of a run at Leopardstown. He was giving weight away and didn't get a great position early on. He's going to run some race in the bumper at Cheltenham.”

Runner-by-runner guide to Mullins’ Festival team: https://www.racingpost.com/news/features/stable-tours/hes-going-to-run-some-race-in-the-champion-bumper-willie-mullins-horse-by-horse-guide-to-his-cheltenham-festival-team-aPrWV0k3SjdA/

PATIENCE FOR POTTER

News came in over the weekend that CALDWELL POTTER, the most expensive National Hunt horse ever sold at a public auction, would miss Cheltenham. A few people suspected this would be the case, especially due to the fact that connections bought him to be a Gold Cup horse in time, but it’s still a shame we won’t get to see him until Aintree (or next season). 

This got us thinking. Of the horses sold to different trainers from the Caldwell Construction dispersal, who is likely to make it to Cheltenham?

One of the more notable pickups was Warren Greatrex getting his hands on MIGHTY BANDIT which, let’s put it this way, stirred a load of evocative debate on Racing X.

As it stands, MIGHTY BANDIT is set to contest the Triumph Hurdle. He is a general 20/1 shot after his bad run at Christmas.

As for Harry Derham, he picked up two progressive sorts in both IMAGINE and MOLLYS MANGO from the sale - the former will head to the Turners and the latter is set to go to the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. 

Plenty of Cheltenham dreams have been ruined in the past after a horse has changed stables close to the Festival, so a note of caution should be issued when looking at these horses. 

SUPER SIBLINGS

ENDLESS VICTORY made a bullish start to racing life yesterday at Wolves. He didn’t go off fave but blitzed the field and is one to keep on side. Out of WAITRESS, he is a full brother to Melbourne Cup hero CROSS COUNTER.

Tonight, eyes will be drawn to Newcastle as MY CLOUD, a Roger Varian-trained three-year-old, is making his debut on the track. Why is he special? Well, he is out of BEACH FROLIC making him a half-brother to PALACE PIER, the five-time Grade 1 winner for the Gosdens. 

Bought for €325,000 at the 2023 Arqana Breeze-up sales, he has 11 rivals to take on today at Newcastle including a four-time raced WELCOME DREAM, Richard Fahey’s QUIET RESOLVE, and a fair few horses who shouldn’t be hitting the frame. Hopefully he puts in a nice performance here which could set up a nice stint on the turf in the coming months.

YOUNG BLOOD

AYR BUMPER

Irish raider PITWOOD ROAD has come over for a weak race, repoing a yard who‘a last two runners have won. His sire PROCONSAL is a full brother to FRANKEL, but unlike his famous sibling has failed to produce anything remotely good. This lads half brother is recent newsletter winner ANGLERS CRAG who enjoys heavy going. 

Next in market is another Irish raider ROAD TO MALLOW repping the Crawfords who’s business model depends on these types of races. Okay NH pedigree, dam won a fast ground bumper so ground unknown today. 

VISUAL IMPACT reps Lucinda Russell who bought her for £100k after finishing 2nd in a point. 13th foal with only 1 rules winner in that bunch is bearish but maybe she can buck the trend …£100k says she should. 

ROEBUCK BAY has arguably the best pedigree in this race, dam side is littered with winners. She looked to have much more to give last time, weird ride from Sean Quinlan… she’s back in calmer waters today against her own sex. 

The other two on form shouldn’t be able to win. 

Verdict: just on pedigree, the vote has to go to ROEBUCK WAY. This is a weak bumper and she only needs to improve a little bit to win this (unless there’s a no ability pedigree anomaly/machine lurking in this field), her last eye catching run says she can. 

RISK ON

Another day of tough racing where the good horses are too short. No bet.

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