Equinties - stay now

Gm Equinauts

By now, the first yearlings will have already been knocked down at Tattersalls Book 1 sale.

Breeders will be holding their breath in anticipation today - will they see more fireworks as worlds biggest pockets collide create a new ‘industry norm’

or was last years record sale a fluke?

Whatever happens in the ring over the next week, we will be documenting it all and finding the best yearlings to follow next season.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

STAY NOW

Baby, you don’t have to go away. Don’t think I can take the pain. Won’t you stay another day?

Who knew that when East 17 made these lyrics, they weren’t talking about love, they were actually pleading with the racing gods for DARYZ and MINNIE HAUK to stay in training next year.

We touched on this briefly in yesterday’s newsletter, but we’re still in the fallout of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and we want to take a bit more of a dive into this subject.
Before we talk about our opinion, here is the latest regarding their futures, starting with DARYZ.

Nemone Routh, racing manager to Princess Zahra Aga Khan, said: "There’s no decision on what we’re doing. We will have a call to discuss his future. There was no discussion ahead of the race really because he hadn’t won a Group 1 before Sunday.

"We’ve always held him in high regard but he had to get through the preliminaries and then not pull in the race, both of which he did beautifully. We hadn’t sat down and made a plan for him post this race and now everything has changed. I think it will be this week.”

As for MINNIE HAUK, Aidan O’Brien said: "She ran her heart out and we were very proud of her. She ran a great race. She seems fine this morning. It's possible she could head to the Breeders' Cup. It will all depend on what the lads want to do, but it's definitely possible she could go to Del Mar for the Turf."

So, for starters, the last three winners of the Arc have all retired immediately after. For different reasons, we understand why. For ACE IMPACT, it was all about protecting his stud value. He will forever be known as an unbeaten Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner, and this is why he was able to pitch in at €40,000 in his first year, which is a record opening price for a French-based stallion.

As for BLUESTOCKING and ALPINISTA, they had achieved all they really could. They had both won the career-defining race, and racing them again would risk them potentially getting injured (or worse).

With DARYZ and MINNIE HAUK, we have two similar scenarios, and even though we understand the decision that both sets of connections have to make, we still want to see them next year. This is especially true with DARYZ. If MINNIE HAUK were to retire, fine, we could deal with that and wait for her babies. She is a three-time Group 1 winner and a Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-up, which is a pretty good CV. She has probably already shown us her best, or something very close to her best.

There is just a sense that we haven’t gotten to the bottom of DARYZ yet. He blew up in the Juddmonte, so he can be forgiven for that, and on his only start in a Group 1 subsequently, he won impressively.

He will always be an Arc winner, and that will stand him in good stead when he becomes a stallion. Why not give him a try next year in races like the Coronation Cup, the King George, and then the Arc again? If he places in two of those three, he improves his CV, and if he wins one, then jackpot.

We will be eagerly awaiting their decision because seeing DARYZ on the track next season would be epic.

CHAMPIONS DAY DOUBLE

Karl Burke is currently operating at a 20% strike rate, which is pretty good for this time of the season. It’s especially good when you consider the level of races in which some of his recent wins have been - ZEUS OLYMPIOS in the Group 2 Joel Stakes, BOILING POINT in the Cambridgeshire, and FALLEN ANGEL in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes.

A combination of good targeting and soft ground has probably contributed to his good fortune recently, as he does tend to have a few soft ground-loving horses stuffed away in his yard. With the season drawing to a close, Burke is ready to send two horses who have improved nicely this season to British Champions Day.

The first is AL QAREEM, and it’s quite remarkable what kind of season he’s had to date. He has two Listed wins and two Group 3 wins to his name, and the latest was pretty dominant in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes.

He loves soft ground, and this weekend was the first time he got it. So, with this in mind, connections could be ready to prepare him for the Group 1 Long Distance Cup.
Nick Bradley, the boss of his ownership syndicate, said: “Karl’s down at Book One (Tattersalls sales), I’m heading down there tomorrow. We’ve just literally hosted an open day, but that was my plan, the Long Distance Cup, I want to chat with Karl and take it from there.

“The Prix Royal-Oak will be the alternative. There’s a race at the Curragh, a Group Three in the first week in November (Loughbrown Stakes) is also possible.”

He likes Ascot, and the Long Distance Cup is awful behind TRAWLERMAN. You may as well go there.

The other horse who could represent Burke at Ascot in two weeks’ time is CONVERGENT, this year’s runner-up in the German Derby. Again, he wouldn’t mind soft ground at all (he won his Redcar novice on soft), and he still looks unexposed based on his Group 3 CMG Group Stakes success last month. On potentially supplementing him for the Champion Stakes, Burke said: “If the ground is soft, which it is looking like it will be, he could be supplemented for the Champion Stakes.

“He’s a horse with lots of pace and if the ground is slow, then he’s a fresh horse and there’s a possibility we would supplement.

“He should have won the German Derby really, and if he doesn’t go to the Champion Stakes, then he’s in a Group Two the next day in France – he will go for one of the two.”

ITS BACK

The Arc is gone, and while there will still be Flat action to dissect, it’s hard not to agree that the jumps are back.

As a lot of you will know, Chepstow is this weekend, so here are just a few of our early thoughts on a few entries.

Let’s start with big Paul Nicholls. He has KNAPPERS HILL entered in the Silver Trophy and WELCOM TO CARTRIES entered in the 3m novices’ chase. While both of these horses are nice, we think they have bigger targets down the line based on previous comments from Nicholls.

For KNAPPERS HILL, the Graduation Chase at Haydock is his target, and for WELCOM TO CARTRIES, he is one Nicholls is lining up for the Badger Beers Handicap Chase.
If there’s a Nicholls horse to back this week, it’s most probably TUTTI QUANTI in the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

That being said, we know how much Sam Thomas and Dai Walters like targeting the Welsh Champion Hurdle, and they have CELTIC DINO entered. He caught the eye on handicap debut at the Aintree Grand National Festival last season, and he does like nice ground. Eyes on.

On the Saturday, BEN SOLO, BE AWARE, EXCELERO, and THE KEMBLE BREWERY are entered for the two-mile novices’ limited handicap chase. If all go to the race, that could be a fascinating contest, though the ground will affect participation. THE KEMBLE BREWERY would want a drop of rain, whereas BE AWARE should be fine on good ground.

And finally, WENDIGO is entered for the Listed Tom Malone Novices’ Chase on Sunday. We imagine that if no rain arrives, he could be a non-runner, as Jamie Snowden isn’t rushing to get him out on nice ground. SPECULATRIX, a Gigginstown House Stud-owned Gordon Elliott-trained six-year-old, is an interesting entry for that race.

We will be hitting the jumps season hard with more stable thoughts, race previews and pedigree analysis then ever. Subscribe to our premium edition to access everything and understand more about the sport you’re betting.

RISK ON

No strong bets today but there are a couple of nice bets entered in the week. We think Boughey can have a good day today so without us being confident on one, well play a speccy ew treble:

BOUGHEY TREBLE

Boughey is in very good form and we think it may be by design to target new owners during this sales period (it’s the Tatts yearling sales on all this week). He has a few runners today but it’s 16.00 ANGELIC RASCAL, 17.02 HOPEWELL ROCK & 18.30 AFTER LOVE who look his best chances and we think he can land a treble. HOPEWELL ROCK is a Group horse in a handicap, ANGELIC RASCAL should improve and AFTER LOVE is well in. 35/1 ew treble.

We landed a Boughey treble last year, these are much bigger prices but we can do it again:

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