Equinties - sprinting dilemas

Gm Equinauts

There were three horses lined up for today but not even one was declared on Wednesday annoyingly so we’ll wait for them. That said, the rain has come in a big way the last few days and that means it’s near enough slop every where…

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

SPRINTING DILEMMAS

What sprints have we left to look forward to this season? Although the division may be a bit weak currently, you can’t have an issue with how competitive it is and how surprising it can be from time to time.

Case and point, NO HALF MEASURES in the July Cup:

The obvious one to point at is the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock, but there is also the Group 1 Flying Five in Ireland, as well as the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes further down the line at Ascot in October. As for handicaps, the Portland Handicap, Ayr Gold Cup, and Coral Sprint Trophy serve as some of the big-field sprints to keep in the diary.

For this newsletter piece, let’s bring forward the Group 1 Sprint Cup and Ayr Gold Cup to focus on, as Kevin Ryan and the connections of AIN’T NOBODY have a bit of a decision to make. Their three-year-old by SANDS OF MALI is entered for both races, with the Sprint Cup set to take place on September 6th and the Ayr Gold Cup on September 20th.

You may be shouting at your screens right now, wondering why they are even giving the Ayr Gold Cup any thought at all considering the colt is rated 112 after his third-place finish in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York last week.

Well, thanks to the beautiful nature of early closing races, AIN’T NOBODY was entered for the Ayr Gold Cup before he ran at the Ebor Festival, so if he were to go for the £180,000 feature Scottish sprint handicap, he would run off 99 and not 112. That means he would be officially 13lbs well-in. Glorious.

So, what should they do? In the Racing Post, Adam Ryan, assistant trainer to his father Kevin, basically said they haven’t decided yet, which is certainly playing with a very straight bat. They must have had a chat about this at some point, and both Adam and Kevin probably know what they are going to do.

If he were ours? We’d go to Ayr every day of the week. Now he is rated 112, it will be at least a season and a half before he could feasibly run in a handicap again, so you may as well go for the opportunity now while you can.

You may come up short at Ayr, granted, but Haydock is still a Group 1 contest against Group 1 horses. Ayr would be a handicap against, well, handicappers, and if AIN’T NOBODY is a Group 1/2 horse, he should be able to school these handicappers off 99. He’d also get 2lbs from his elders at Ayr!

Give yourself a chance, Team AIN’T NOBODY. Go for Ayr.

Oh, also, William Haggas is thinking about supplementing SKY MAJESTY, a good winner of the recent Group 3 Ballyogan Stakes at Naas, for the Group 1 Sprint Cup.
He said: "She’s come forward from the spring. She was a little disappointing at Chelmsford in a race I should never have run her in.

"In the Commonwealth Cup she ran well, but just not well enough, and then she bounced back in a soft race with a penalty at Naas. She was upped in class on Sunday and I thought she won more handsomely. She needs cut to be seen at her best, and she was very effective last autumn on soft ground.

"One option is the Sprint Cup at Haydock, which we would need to supplement her for, but hasn’t been ruled out, especially if the ground goes right.

"She’s also in the Prix de l'Abbaye, which she’ll probably run in because she's got plenty of speed. If you get drawn between one and five it’s an enormous advantage, so that’s in the lap of the gods.

"She’s in the Champions Sprint, which I think would be her last run of the season. We’ve got nothing to lose pitching her in a big race, and that’s what we’ll do."

Bullish. We like it, Shaggas.

STAR SIRE

LADY IMAN, VENETIAN SUN, NORTH COAST, GREEN SENSE, FLOWERHEAD, and 15 other horses. STARMAN is certainly having an incredible start to his stallion career.

He already has a Group 1 to his name thanks to VENETIAN SUN, and even more miraculously, he is giving first-time-out winners to trainers you wouldn’t expect it from.

Step right up, INTO THE SKY at Newbury yesterday. The 25,000gns purchase scored on debut for Jim Boyle at 80/1, and he didn’t just win at big odds, he absolutely bolted up!
It’s fair to say that Racing X was very impressed.

So, there are a couple of points here. Firstly, yes, he was quite impressive on the eye, and to do that from a yard that isn’t known for its juvenile winners adds to the performance shown.

However, he was sent off 80/1, and the strength of the field behind can be questioned notably from how the field was spread out. Just as an example, DARK SHORE is 0/3 and LAW COURT came from an unproven Newbury novice. The form of the race is really hard to assess, but if we were guessing, we wouldn't have too many hopes for it going forward.

It will ultimately be fascinating to see where Boyle sends INTO THE SKY next. Could he go for another novice or maybe try Listed/Group company? How the market will assess him on his next run is also another interesting element, and whether he can back up the effort is another question.

BACK TO BACK TO BACK

It’s been over two months since Jerome Reynier came out and publicly destroyed Flavian Prat after his ride on FACTEUR CHEVAL in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

Tell us how you really feel, Jerome! It was a fairly brutal bashing, and not one we see very much in this game. It was Prat’s first ride on the horse, and we can imagine that Reynier won’t be in a rush to call him again anytime soon.

Why do we bring this up? Well, we did a piece in the newsletter about this, and we thought connections were going to take in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood before returning to Ascot for Champions Day. We got half of our prediction right as he will come back to Berkshire in October, but as we all know, he didn’t travel over to Goodwood for the Sussex. We bet connections are half kicking themselves after seeing QIRAT land the spoils!

Another element of our prediction involved which race on Champions Day they would run in. Obviously, he has run in the last two QEIIs, but having run over 1m1f on three occasions in Meydan this year before his stab at 1m2f at Royal Ascot, we queried whether they would keep him at 1m2f for the Champions Stakes or bring him back to a mile for the QEII.

In the Racing Post yesterday, we got our answer, as Barry Irwin, founder of Facteur Cheval’s part-owners Team Valor International, said: "He was given some time off and has been gradually brought back by Jerome.

“We hoped to run him in the Prix du Moulin next week, but even though he's back to normal, he's not had enough work to make it so we're focusing on the Queen Elizabeth II for the third time in a row and that will be it for this year. He's looking good again but just hasn't been able to have the requisite amount of work."

"It's a funny race because you never quite know what the ground is going to be like and there's always seemingly one emerging horse who you just can't contend with. He's capable though, there's no question about it.

"After Ascot we'll figure out what we want to do. I've kind of given up on the idea of trying him on the dirt again and I'd like to see if he can run another good race in the Dubai Turf. We went a little crazy this year and I think we'll wind up just pointing him at the Dubai Turf."

Good. We like this call. Let’s not forget that he nearly got the better of CHARYN in the race last year, and he had DANCING GEMINI, TAMFANA, and QUDDWAH beat. With the ambiguity that surrounds the likes of ROSALLION, NOTABLE SPEECH, and THE LION IN WINTER, he could be a nice, older head to consider.

RISK ON

We begin play with a little Millman x ADAAY double at Ffos Las…

13.25 FOUR ADAAY & 13.55 CYRPIOT DIASPORA

Two ADAAY’s for Rod Millan here, both should love the ground. Win bet on the latter as looks the best in the race.

We’re running out of time to get this out today so will post the other on X.

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