Equinties - splitting stakes

Gm Equinauts

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Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUND UP

DERBY FALLOUT

As we did in yesterday’s Newsletter, we dissected the Epsom Derby, looking at why the winner won and why the losers lost. Simple, really.

Ultimately, our analysis is an opinion, but it is backed up by what we can see with our eyes and any data available to us.

But, as with any big racing meeting/festival, there is always a bit of fallout to discuss, and this is no different for Saturday’s Derby.

Let’s start with some of the disappointments: PRIDE OF ARRAS and DAMYSUS.

The Dante winner was fairly strong in the market in the morning of the Derby, and Ralph Beckett clearly thought he was going to go well, but it seems like Epsom itself caught out the son of NEW BAY.

He said: "He clearly didn't handle the track, which was a surprise to all of us, but we've all sent horses to Epsom expecting them to handle it and have been proved wrong. He's come out of the race well and the Irish Derby is still a possibility."

As for DAMYSUS, a stall-inflicted injury is part of the reason behind his poor effort.

John Gosden said: “Damysus went into the stalls early enough, second or third I think, and was fine, but for some reason with three to load he got a bit upset and lashed out and kicked the stalls, sustaining some nasty cuts to his hock in the process.

“James Doyle said he could feel Damysus was in some discomfort during the race, which is why he let him come home in his own time, turning for home when he could feel something was amiss.”

This is racing, after all, so these things do happen. Tough luck.

Right, let’s talk about the more positive performances, and we’re going back to Beckett. PRIDE OF ARRAS, his more fancied runner, may have finished second-last, but STANHOPE GARDENS ran a huge race to finish fifth.
His run was very eye-catching with two furlongs to go, but he just didn’t truly see it out. Beckett also believes this is the case, and he’s happy to bring him back in trip next time out.

He said: "Stanhope Gardens ran a huge race, particularly considering the preparation that he'd had. Whether he quite got the 12 furlongs is debatable and it's possible that we drop back to ten furlongs, though there will be decisions on that in the coming week or so, including where he goes next. The Eclipse will be a possibility, but we'll see how he comes out of the race.”

If you want to back him for the Eclipse, he’s 33/1.

Speaking of eye-catching runs, NEW GROUND certainly ate up the grass in the final few furlongs to finish fourth in the Derby. He massively outran his odds, and considering he’s never won a Group race, that was a huge career-best effort.

Henri-Francois Devin and Juddmonte supplemented him for £75,000, and they were right to. They must know what they have, and they’re not going to shy away from Group 1 company going forward.

Devin said: "Obviously he didn't get the easiest of runs but the horse showed up, as he always does, and he ran all the way to the line.

"He showed he stayed the mile and a half really well and it was a great experience.”
With this in mind, the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris is “the logical next step”, though the Irish Derby is still on the shortlist. Either way, it’s Group 1 company again for his next run, and he is thoroughly unexposed.

SPLITTING STAKES

So, as you well know, LAKE VICTORIA is out of Royal Ascot. The rumour mill was running wild yesterday morning, and the confirmation came through from Coolmore just before midday.

What the Ballydoyle X post also revealed is the intended targets for MINNIE HAUK and WHIRL, the 1-2 in this year’s Epsom Oaks, and connections are doing the smart thing by splitting their stakes. MINNIE HAUK will head to the Irish Oaks, a race she is 6/4 for with Unibet (only market open), and WHIRL will head to the Pretty Polly.

Just looking at the Irish Oaks at this early ante-post stage, MINNIE HAUK could quite easily win this race based on all known form. CATALINA DELCARPIO (6/1) was held by WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY (8/1) at Navan, DESERT FLOWER (10/1) might not want to try 1m4f again, LAKE VICTORIA (10/1) won’t run, and then the likes of CHANTILLY LACE, EXACTLY, BALLET SLIPPERS, and DREAMY would need to step up if they even run.

We spoke about ZARIGANA’s price in yesterday’s newsletter for the Coronation Stakes, and well, although she is short, MINNIE HAUK might well oblige in the Irish Oaks at similar prices.

Want a slightly bigger priced Ballydoyle play who might oblige just as easily? Check out LOS ANGELES in the POW. With ECONOMICS out he looks a good thing at 3/1 - 11/4.

LONDON CALLIN’

And finally, Amo Racing have another potential Royal Ascot two-year-old to think about as LONDON BOY won at Brighton yesterday.

We kept a close eye on this race yesterday as LONDON BOY was an interesting debutante. By HAVANA GREY, he cost 300,000gns at the Tattersalls October Book 2 Yearling Sale last year despite not having an amazing page on the dam’s side.

Furthermore, we know he was nowhere near tuned up to the max, and whatever he did at Brighton yesterday was going to bring him forward a tonne.

And yet, he won nicely, beating two horses who already had race fitness on their sides. That’s smart form. Will he be going to Ascot? That is still up for debate, but Raphael Freire hasn’t ruled it out despite the quick turnaround (that’s a yes then).

He said: “He'd been showing some ability at home. He’s still quite green and took some time to get organised, but it was a very nice start. He’s a likely improver, he’s very unfurnished and will only do better with time.

“He’ll have a few entries at Royal Ascot, but we’ll have to consider whether we go there or give him some more time. We’ll see how he comes out of this, but there are plenty of options.”

This is a horse to follow.

RISK ON

14.30 ZAVATERI

A moderate novice which shouldn’t take a lot of winning and Eve’s might just be up to it… Like all Eve 2yo’s he’ll be off for his life and will enjoy the ground. Without a doubt Scott’s is the horse to beat so a small rev fc is advised paying 18’s either way.

17.40 VIBRANT PEARL

At even money it’s a shortie but should be a goodie.

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