Equinties - sloppy Sandown

Author

BGP Capital
May 23, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Imagine if you didn’t like horse racing, then today would just be Thursday. Instead, Sandown hosts a brilliant card today with proper Group action and Royal Ascot pointers… oh, and it’s nearly the weekend.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BLUE POINTS GIRLS

BLUE POINT has shown that he is a stallion going to the very top of this game. He has two nice fillies now going for the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot.

SPHERICAL for Cheveley Park Stud look like they have a rapid filly on their hands. Still basking in their Lockinge win from the weekend. SPERICAL bounced off the Yarmouth turf yesterday and when the ground gets faster she’ll improve for it. She is by BLUE POINT and out of a NEW APPROACH mare, the same cross that produced Gr1 winning 2yo ROSSALION. Her grandam is SPACIOUS who won the May Hill as a 2yo and placed in the 1000 Guineas, Matron, Falmouth and Sun Chariot Stakes.

MAKE HASTE dashed to the front in a competitive Naas maiden recently. She looks a ball of muscle, the quick 5 furlongs of the Queen Mary will really suit her, ping out in front and stay there. Her Grandam was a smart 2yo and she produced MINCE who was a Champion Sprinter in 2012 and has in turn produced the smart filly ARAMINTA.

BLUE POINT is currently standing for €60,000 at Sheikh Mo’s place in Ireland. His juveniles turned a few heads when two won at the highest level, a feat achieved since Sadlers Wells produced two juvenile Gr1 winners.

SHEP-PIED

Jockey changes and the Epsom Derby go hand-in-hand, and the most recent ones haven’t created much success.

The funniest pre-Derby change occurred in 2021 when Adam Kirby was jocked-off JOHN LEEPER for Frankie Dettori, only for Kirby to hop on ADAYAR and win the race!

So, it was inevitable that a jockey change would occur ahead of this year’s race and we got news of it yesterday as Rab Havlin will ride AMBIENTE FRIENDLY instead of Callum Sheppard.

Owned by the Gredley Family, the three-year-old by GLENEAGLES is a 5/1-shot for the Epsom Classic next weekend, though the decision to drop Sheppard off hasn’t gone down too well on Racing X.

On the decision, Tim Gredley said: "Dad [Bill Gredley] and I have had a chat with Callum and there has been no falling out. He's ridden us plenty of winners but we thought Rab Havlin had more experience of a big occasion like the Derby which will be a big day for all of us.

"Rab has ridden winners for us and won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes on Audience the other day which was a massive race to win.

"I think Rab went in and had a sit on the horse for the first time this morning at James Fanshawe's and we're very much looking forward to the race."

18.37 NATIONAL STAKES

Amo sling two darts at this useful juvenile contest won last year by ELITE STATUS. SERGEI PROKOFIEV is a bit of a mover and shaker in the stallion ranks with his first 2yo’s. They look sharp like ENCHANTING EMPRESS who won at Ascot recently. REPOSADO ridden by Rossa Ryan, was 7th on debut behind Hawaiian and hot beat by another Hannon horse at Ascot in Xanthe. Dominic Ffrench Davis ‘trains’ both of them (news flash: he doesn’t).

Amy Murphy is a class act at finding winnable races. She’ll venture far and wide for her owners. ROCK HUNTER was a 15k foal spun into 32k as a yearling. He was second to Enchanting Empress at Ascot last time out and there is no embarrassment being beaten by a girl. He’ll need to put his big boy pants on today though!

HAWAIIN is here running for the same owners as last years winner. He is by the 2yo sire king KODIAC. A homebred so no photos of him as a yearling but you know he’ll have a great big arse on him, the engine room will be well oiled today.

SONIC BLUE for Tom Dascombe is at 8/1. He won a 4 runner maiden at Doncaster which has turned out terribly with the second flopping on his next start. To make matters worst there is Jamie Spencer on board. Only joking…

You can’t beat a DANDY MAN filly but Jack Channons inmate has questionable form. SPIRITED DANCER won last time out but had the experience compared to her contenders and it helped.

ZMINIATURE won the Brocklesby for Dylan Cunha. Unloved today and maybe will be found out.

Verdict: HAWAIIN beat a couple of subsequent winners on debut at Newbury on similar ground, he also had a smart Meehan and Balding horses in behind who have ran with credit since but not quite getting over the line. A plum draw will help. The Hannon’s know the time of day with their 2yo’s and have won this race twice in the last 10 years.

19.37 GROUP 3 BRIGADIER GERARD STAKES

Just the five have been declared for the Brigadier Gerard Stakes this year and it’s not a vintage five either.

ROYAL RHYME heads the market and he deserves his position in the market based on last season’s form. Before his fifth in the Group 1 Champion Stakes behind KING OF STEEL, he put in a remarkable performance in the Listed Doonside Cup Stakes at Ayr as he caught the runaway PRIDE OF AMERICA.

He’s been a non-runner twice this season due to quick ground, so the good to soft (and more rain incoming) will help him here.

CERTAIN LAD has race fitness on his side after his fourth to HAMISH in the Group 3 Surprise Stakes at Newbury. That run was his first try at Group-level racing and he didn’t have the easiest route through, but he stuck on through the line and any form with HAMISH is strong.

ISLE OF JURA is the improving horse in this line-up as he’s won four of his last five since the start of December 2023.

Those streak of good performances occurred over in Bahrain, so the form can be taken with a pinch of salt, and today is his first run for 76 days. He might just need the run here.

A rather interesting runner is MISS CANTIK who gets the allowances for being a filly.

She has just six runs under her belt and made her first UK start at Leicester in April when beating AL MUBHIR, so she’ll come on for it. She is a half to the aforementioned PRIDE OF AMERICA and she’s likely to make the running, so could we see another case of ROYAL RHYME catching up to one of ATARFE’s progeny?

ELEGANCIA completes the field, but it’ll be tough for him to win here.

Verdict: ROYAL RHYME is a little clear on ratings and should be able to give old Maktoum a good day. Strong possibility the treble lands.

20.12 LISTED HERON STAKES

After the Brigadier Gerard Stakes comes the Heron Stakes with seven runners.

ICE MAX represents the same connections as the previous race’s favourite, though he is a much bigger price at 11/4. He’s stepping out of handicap company for the first time in five races having disappointed himself in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes in September. Since then, he’s won three times since, the most recent of which came at Musselburgh when he beat INDIVIDUALISM by five-and-a-half lengths. INDIVIDUALISM is a good horse and he ran to an RPR of 111 that day.

KIKKULI is a big talking horse as he is a KINGMAN half-brother to the almighty FRANKEL and he got his head in front at Newmarket in April. He clearly has a strong pedigree and his debut run looks good in the form book as the winner (ZOUM ZOUM) has won a Listed race since and the fourth (ECONOMICS) has won the Dante.

Speaking of good form, REMAADD has run two solid races against good horses in his last two outings. The first of which at Haydock in the Listed Ascendant Stakes where he was third to AL MUSMAK and MACDUFF; the former was then second to GHOSTWRITER in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes and the latter was fourth in the same race.

The second occurred when third in the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown behind Godolphin’s one-time Derby hopeful ARABIAN CROWN. If he translates that form to here, he’ll have a huge chance.

SON has been on the drift slightly for Richard Hannon and it’s understandable to some degree as he’s had seven races and only one win.

He also has ARABIAN CROWN form from his third in the Stonehenge Stakes last year, but he would have to build on his last run.

At a bigger price, we mentioned BALMACARA when talking about the Silver Trophy yesterday though connections have decided to skip that handicap and head here instead.

On form, he’s have a chance and he’s won his last two, so his potential could still be untapped.

Verdict: ICE MAX looked a machine on the up lto but on a pure pedigree basis, Shaggas’ REMAADD gets the vote on heavy ground.

RISK ON

We like HAWAIIAN as per the above preview but he’s short, at a better price the the best bet today might be:

19.07 CAIUS CHORISTER

Developed into best horse in race and should win, 5/2 is big.

15.10 SEE THE GREEN is very short but for a reason… use as leverage.