Equinties - slop comms

Author

BGP Capital
July 09, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BILLY BILLING

It’s hard not to love Charlie Hills’ KHAADEM. Over the last three years at Royal Ascot, he’s finished second to NATURE STRIP when riderless and then won two renewals of the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes.

He is a typical veteran sprinter, so his profile is instantly loveable, and he could receive an even warmer reception on Saturday as Billy Loughnane might take the ride.

With Jamie Spencer on the sidelines with a ban, Hills has snapped up the promising rider for the July Cup, though it’s still not confirmed as to which horse of Hills’ he will ride.

The Lambourn-based operator has MITBAAHY and KHAADEM in the race, so one of those horses will give Loughnane a chance at Group 1 success.

He said: "We’ve got Billy for the race, so we’ll decide which one to put him on nearer the time. He’s doing fantastic. He’s a great talent and the horses seem to run for him. He’s a very exciting and young jockey."

Hills’ duo of horses are set to be joined by VANDEEK and INISHERIN in the July Cup and Charlie will be doing the sun dance because this race will dampen any chances KHAADEM has of getting two wins in a row.

BARRIER TRIAL TO WATCH

After our new hire Norm posted a horse to watch in SOLDIERS HEART after blitzing a British barrier trial, yesterday saw the Irish EBF Barrier Trials occur at Dundalk and there’s certainly one horse to note from the day as FALLING SNOW took the eye.

By JUSTIFY out of WINTER, he is a full brother to Aidan O’Brien’s LONDON CITY, though Donnacha O’Brien trains this two-year-old.

Word on the street is that the second, RANTING N RAVEN, is nifty and people think this winner could be a Group 1 performer.

Of course, that could be nonsense, but she is certainly one to watch on debut/going forward.

WEATHER WATCH

Speaking of Donnacha O’Brien, this weekend could see his stable star PORTA FORTUNA return to the track in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes if the weather permits.

During her Royal Ascot win in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes, she beat a nice field of OPERA SINGER, RAMATUELLE, and ELMALKA, so her form looks good on paper.

That came on good to firm ground and she was also second at the Breeders’ Cup on firm ground, so a sound surface is pretty key to her.

Donnacha O’Brien said: "Porta Fortuna is in good form and everything has gone to plan since Ascot. Her work has been good and we've been very happy with her.

"The Falmouth is the plan for now. We're watching the weather and there's a bit of rain forecast, so if the ground came up soft then we could wait a little bit longer.

"The plan we had is that she'd go to either the Falmouth or Prix Rothschild. If it came up soft, we could end up waiting for the latter.

"We could give her a little break after her next run and bring her back for the Matron. The Breeders' Cup would be the end-of-year target and we'll have to decide whether we take in the Sun Chariot on the way.

"She ran a blinder at the Breeders' Cup last season and loves that kind of ground. She'd probably be going for the Breeders' Cup Mile, which would be a very tough race with the colts and older horses, but we'd love to get her there."

SLOP COMMS

It’s not often we get this amount of rain in July and when most will be cancelling the betting day, we’ve been studying all night and all morning to try take advantage ff the unseasonal extremity of slop.

Note: Brighton is only soft - good/soft so that reading really needs to change to soft for our selections to be as effective.

We’ll only comment in the races we have a view in.

UTTOXETER

16.33 NOVICE HURDLE

Derham’s sets the standard here but on pedigree he’s one to take on (if you can) as he’d prefer top of the ground. Emma’s GUARD DUTY is a bit mad but he has ability and will go in the ground. He’s the ew to nothing in this race with a small nod towards Olly Murphy’s DEPLLOY THE SPY who should like the ground too.

17.05 NOVICE HURDLE

Not many will want to get any where near the fave here making LIGHT FANDANGO an accidental distance bet really despite not setting the greatest standard ever. If you want a swing at a huge price to place then that could be HOLY LEGEND who is nicely enough bred for this conditions but it’s highly likely stopper Scholfield will be under instruction.

18.05 HANDICAP HURDLE

This is either to read or extremely complex… and we’re going to be bulish and say it’s easy - the fave wins at 6/4. He’s the only one on form and will love the ground. The field contains horses who, although similar or slightly better horses in their prime are on a revival mission and won’t like ground. SECRET TRIX wins.

18.35 HANDICAP CHASE

This is one of the worst races you’ll ever see. Pauling’s is a bad fave and generally most in the field would prefer top of the ground. The one stand out horse (and we’re not looking at form here, otherwise you’d laugh at us) is GROOM DE COTTE who is bred for the mud. He’s the lowest rated of his immediate family suggesting he’s never quite realised his potential. That said, if he was ever going to break his maiden, it’s in this shocking race when every thing else gets stuck in the mud. If he doesn’t win then NO QUARTER ASKED at 22’s might be in the mix - that’s how bad the race is!

20.05 BUMPER

Loads of money for the Bowen horse who must have ability but that cash came before the rain… now, the horse might be fine in the mud but there is one on this race better bred for this type of race - JOUR D’ORAGE. Trainer has only ever had one winner, 125/1 GOLDEN MILLIE, who we put up as the bumper pick (legendary stuff). We think if this lad doesn’t need the one ‘prep’ run like GOLDEN MILLIE, then he can handle the mud best. 7/1.

RISK ON

We’ll have small play on the above preview horses or follow the fun sloppy acca below.

18.25 BELIEVE YOU ME

A strong bet in soft - the only horse who should be able to handle the mud. 11/10.

19.55 MARCHING MAC

Squeezed overnight suggesting the yard fancy this one. Lovely pedigree for the soft going. 5/4.

40/1 SLOP ACCA:

16.33 GUARD DUTY TP

18.05 SECRETE TRIX WIN

18.25 BELEIEVE YOU ME WIN

19.55 MARCHING MAC WIN

20.05 JOUR D’ORAGE TP

Follow us on X @equinties for a possible bet at Pontefract.

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