Equinties - SDS cash cow dead

May 12, 2023

Equinties

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It's got the beautiful location, the party atmosphere, the big prize money and all the top trainers from around the country running their horses there, no one can deny Chester's May Festival isn't a top feature in the racing calendar. 

But no matter how  good it is to watch, this meeting will never be considered a 'top' one for betting. For the serious punters anyway.

Everyone knows the racing is like watching a merry-go-round, only on this merry-go-round, the horses revolve around a greased up pole with rockets up their arse's.

Every one knows what Chester is about. The bends so tight and pace so fast, that if the horse carrying your cash isn't in a good position from the get go, then you can kiss goodbye to your bet.

But as the worlds oldest racecourse, it continues to be home to Racing Twitters longest running, most tired joke - the track bias and taking the piss out of people who talk about the bias.

Honestly, racing at the Roodee could live for another 500 years and continue be the life support to the same recycled chat.

You can get absolute bankers at the track, as you can at any track but generally you'd do well to just learn to enjoy watching the racing at Chester.

This newsletter has had no Risk On for two days and that's been intentional both to recalibrate and practice good habits. 

The TOTE Fantasy will help this process. So on day 3 of the Chester May Festival, practice using it to maintain an interest in the races without doing your b*llocks.

Add your stable to our League using code QHZ36G.

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Now, let’s dive in. 

Headline round up 

A load of pish about Hamish

Right. Yesterday was bs. 

HAMISH looked a near certainty yesterday and was lined up to be a strong NAP... right up until Maureen Haggas started talking.

She completely put everyone away by saying he's short of work and will need it. Exactly the same way Gosden tried to with ARREST. The jumps sphere gets it too, Nicholls told everyone FRODON had no chance once at Cheltenham. He bolted up.

The red flags turned out just to be a whopping red herring from Shaggas' wife as, HAMISH made it back-to-back victories in the Ormonde Stakes yesterday in fantastic fashion, stamping in the fact that he is a very good horse when conditions come to hand and he'd not running with a load of cash on his back. 

The money came plunging in for CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD on his first run since last year’s Royal Ascot meeting, however, he was disappointing and the seven-year-old had a beautiful route through under Tom Marquand. 

With the current soft ground sweeping the country, connections are thinking of sending him to the Yorkshire Cup next Friday over 1m6f – his record when doubling up races isn’t bad as he finished second to TRUESHAN at Newbury in 2019 having won at York 14 days prior. 

Cash cow dead

Big news coming in this morning as top jockey and King Power’s former retained rider, Silvestre De Sousa, has been banned for 10 months by the Hong Kong Jockey Club!

This comes following an inquiry by its department of racing integrity and betting analysis and alongside fellow Brazilian jockey, Vagner Borges, the pair pleaded guilty to a betting charge - Borges was banned for 12 months. 

The Group 1-winning rider facilitated Borges to have a betting interest on a horse called YOUNG BRILLIANT at Happy Valley on April 26th - the four-year-old finished 7th of 12 at odds of 17/1. 

De Sousa moved over to HK in August 2022 and been earned over £1 million in prize money from just his first 74 rides in the jurisdiction. 

What a f*cking idiot. He only needs to turn up to earn the big bucks, why tf would he even get involved in something that would kibosh that opportunity? Jockeys sometimes...

Big race preview 

14.40 Group 2 Huxley Stakes

Another group race with the Moore/O’Brien combination as the warm Favourite. 

POINT LONSDALE made a winning return after 351 days off the track. An injury occurred in the 10th place finish in the Guineas last year when he was a lively 11/2 chance. The ground shouldn’t be a problem but will he bounce? 

MUJTABA won’t mind the soft conditions and he won like a really horse at the end of last year at Newbury. 

FOXES TALES is more exposed than most but his gelding operation looks to have helped him. His two runs this year put him in the mix.

POKER FACE lost his unbeaten tag to OTTOMAN FLEET who was race fit and had course form at Newmarket. Ottoman fleet has since won a Group 2 in America and looks strong form leading into this race. 

ROYAL CHAMPION and LAYFAYETTE both have a bit to find on form. The former would want drying ground and the latter has good form in behind Point Lonsdale. 

Verdict: POKER FACE is the selection and keep your eyes on Layfayette could out run his odds back on favourable terms with the favourite. He was too far back when they met at the Curragh and runs off level weights this time.

15.15 Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap)

It’s the minefield that is the Chester Cup and there has been money flying about and the one horse who has received all of the support has been CALL MY BLUFF at 11/2 for Dominic Ffrench Davis having been 16/1 ante-post. You can see whay, he'll love any cut in the ground and comes from stall 2.

He has a great Chester record having won in June 2021 and finished a staying-on second three starts ago – his second to NOVEL LEGEND, the ante-post favourite before being balloted out of the race, at Newbury lto reads well and should be sharper for the run. 

One who has been solid in the market all week is FALCON EIGHT, the 2021 winner, off a four-pound higher mark this time around. 

He was given too much to do last year when fifth to CLEVELAND (COLTRANE was 2nd) and handles soft ground so he could be right there today. 

Both METIER and CALLING OF THE WIND have also seen some support, but it is the latter who has seen the most from 20/1 into 15/2. When the money comes for a Hughes horse, it's normally telling and he is ground versatile having placed in the last two Queen Alexandra races in mixed conditions. His third to COLTRANE and fourth to THIRD REALM reads well coming into here dead off 100. 

Of the rest, the market can’t give away ZOFFEE, EMIYN has failed to win on his last three runs off today’s mark of 89, and RAJINSKY’s form to beat TRUESHAN two starts ago now doesn’t look too good after both disappointed in the Sagaro Stakes. 

Verdict: Not really a betting prospect, more for the TOTE Fantasy, the gamble CALL MY BLUFF and Alan King's TRITONIC, who is a top horse both on flat and over jumps, look like good plays in this. In fact, Alan King could have a good day at Chester with GREYSTOKE too in the 16.20 who looks ready to win, the Alan King stupid lunch money ew double pays 109/1.

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NEW FEATURE - YOUNG BLOOD

Notes on pedigree, attractive crosses and sales trends

15.00 Ascot

Away from the merry-go-round, we head to Ascot today to look at Young Blood in the Maiden Fillies Stakes.

DAWN CHARGER is by SOLDIERS CALL and cost 40,000euros as a yearling and is a half-sister to a couple of winners, one of which gained an RPR of 100. Out of a NEW APPROACH mare, he’s the broodmare sire of MAWJ and her half brother MODERN GAMES.

JE NE SAIS QUOI means I don't know in French but we know about this blood. A 32k yearling by DANDY MAN, a very speedy 2yo pedigree but not much black type on the page apart from the Dam who is a half sister to ROHAAN, who, incidentally, loves Ascot and soft. 

THANKSBUTNOTHANKS is another Amo Breeze up buy, cost 30,000 after costing 30,000 as a yearling - effectively a loss after the keeping and prepping of it. Interestingly she was ridden by Robson Aguiar in her breeze so I wonder if he felt something on her. By first season sire TEN SOVEREIGNS, a first foal out of a dam who won twice. It’s a good female line with the second dam being Gr1 placed, albeit in Italy. 

HAPPY TEARS is by gun 2yo sire DANDY MAN out of a KODIAC mare. Cost £65,000 as a yearling whose am won at 2 and was 4th in a Listed race and has produced CORAZON (trained by Boughey), a Gr3 winner and Gr2 placed at 2. Ran very green on debut but stayed on well, we could see a different filly today. Interesting the trainer sends her here rather than a Nottingham or Yarmouth. 

Others to watch on debut

Verdict: HAPPY TEARS showed greenness on debut but ran on strongly in the closing stages. She should improve a lot from the run and with a more experienced jockey on board.  

Risk on

No bet here but one horse in particular BGP Capital will be watching closely is SERRIED RANKS who might just provide LAND FORCE with his first winner as a sire - third time lucky. LAND FORCE is the sire of one of our lads and like ours, Becketts lad is bred from a long line of the Queen's own mares. Fingers crossed for a big run.

14.05 SAVVY VICTORY 

Stopped multiple times lto, he looks fit and ready to win. Hopefully Moore can get out of stall 1 quickly and find no trouble for this lad today. His dam won in heavy so ground should be ideal today. Half win bet at 7/2 and half bet to place on the exchange at 1.9 to make your own ew incase he bumps into one, but shouldn't need it.

16.10 ORAZIO

Small bet here on the fave at 16.10. Couldnt have done it any easier lto and could follow up. Teal's would be the hedge but his yard isn't firing yet.

20.05 COVERDALE

If we thought ROARING LEGEND couldn't get beat last week, this makes COVERDALE leverage for today. At 4/5 in from 11/10 he's short enough, so not really worth a single but should be 1x lev for another bet. 

20.40 CLOSE QUARTERS 

Looks a stinky plot for Quinn. Non-trier lto and now off a low mark with good novice form in the book, the girl should win today. Blinkers on is a telling sign so we're going with a full single at 11/4.

Staking and banking

You need to manage risk by limiting bet size to a fixed % of your bank. The reality is, if you have an edge that'll prove profitable over say, 100 trades, but there will be times when you have a string of losses - that could be 10 losing bets in a row, it happens. 

To avoid blowing the account, managing risk to a fixed, low percentage is the only way to stay in the game.

There was a lot of positive feedback recently from people benefitting from our staking advice. Well, and general bank roll tips too. So we'll keep it here as a reminder.

If you want to take punting seriously and use racing as a value add to your life, keep a betting bank, protect it at all times (none of this 'ah we're on a bull run, I'll stick a few stupid bets on') and stick to risking the % stakes, upping notional as the bank grows. Betting banks will change your punting forever. 

Help keep a healthy bank by betting less and using the TOTE Fantasy game to feed the chimp.

Create your stable and use code QHZ36G to join the BGP league here: 

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