Equinties - Saturday

Gm Equinauts

It’s quite hard to produce a racing-themed newsletter every day. I mean, the BHA are always an easy target for amusing content but other than that, sometimes there are weeks where really not much happens so when I saw Soumillon elbow Rossa off his horse yesterday, I thought thank fuck I’ve finally got something to talk about (I’m sick of pretending to care about VERRY ELLEEGANT not running in the Arc).

Everyone’s seen what happened yesterday but watch it again:

WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK.

Riding horses is dangerous enough but to do that, whether it was a stupid rush of blood to the head or not, takes some sort of sicko. It’s the equivalent of chucking someone off the roof of a car at 40 mph, he could have killed him. None of you need reminding about what happened a few weeks back to little Jack de Bromhead.

Soumillon’s apology isn’t enough (despite that being the only thing he can do), he needs to be banned for a long time.

Anyway, enough about that.

Let’s dive in.

Saturday's big race previews

Today’s preview will be short and sharp, as contrary to routine, we’re going to try and get out a good newsletter tomorrow previewing l’Arc.

12.23 Gr2 Prix Chaudenay

It’s going to be a proper slop fest over in Longchamp this weekend and the racing kicks off with basically a glorified bumper. It’s a bit of a bad Group 2 in the sense that it’s going to be a step up for most of these who are better off at Listed level, Gr 3 max.

DUKE DE SESSA got his first win this season when stepping up in trip lto and that is 100% the form to beat her. I wouldn’t typically like his ped on this ground but it was soft at Leopardstown and he motored home to beat what was our selection for the race, THUNDR KISS.

Our view: the race has gone already but we thought AL QAREEN was a cert.

13.33 Gr 1 Prix de Royallieu

Longchamp's second race of the day is another staying race which sees this week's talking horse, VERRY ELLEEGANT head the market. All eyes, at least Aussie eyes, will be on her today given this week’s recent uproar and it would be great for racing if she won (good competition and good healthy rivalry always makes for good sport) and it is a shame she’s not going to get a chance to line up in the L’Arc but quite frankly she’s not as good as European Gr1 horses.

Can she win today? Well, she’s done most of her racing in soft ground so the going isn’t an excuse today, that said, the depth of Australian racing in the staying divisions is questionable. She won the Melbourne Cup but European third tier stayers go to Australia and win the Melbourne Cup, think REWILDING and PRINCE OF ARRAN, they both struggled to win a Gr3 in Europe. She had a ding dong battle with ADDEYBB a year or two back and came out worse than him and he’s a Gr2 horse at best (unless it’s a bog). So I’m afraid to say it Aussies, your milers and stayers just aren’t as good as ours. Sprinters however, now that’s a different story! We saw it this year with NATURE STRIP at The Royal Meeting and we’ve seen it countless times before, Aussie sprinters are the best in the world. Think BLACK CAVIAR, CHOISIER, TAKEOVER TARGET, MISS ANDRETTI and STARSPANGLEDBANNER.

Our view: VERRY ELLEGANT is one to take on and the winner could easily be SEA LA ROSA simply because I don’t think the others are good enough having beaten a couple in the line-up previously. SLR doesn’t win by far but she gets the job done, the trip is of no concern, ground conditions will be fine and course should pose no problems. Dare I say it and it’s not something anybody has ever said this year but is the Haggas yard slightly underperforming? I’m not willing to find out at 5/2 but that’s who’ll we hang our hat on. On this ground, the big danger to her would be EMILY DICKINSON.

15.25 Gr1 Prix du Cadran

KYPRIOS needs no intro, he’s been a star this season but I think this is his biggest test… the ground. He’s a quick ground horse through and through and despite being the best horse in the race, he might just give up his winning streak today.

Our view: Hollie Doyle’s husband's ride on QUICKTHORN really fucked me over lto when he beat COLTRANE (who went on to win a good Gr 2 nto) but scarily, that was on very quick ground… QUICKTHORN loves the mud and he has his perfect conditions today. The books are leaving the ew on this lad available which I think is quite generous as I can’t see him being out the places, making him a good ew to nothing in the hope the mud stops KYPRIOS today.

16.00 Gr 2 Prix Dollar

10 quick gruelling furlongs here and the market is headed by the progressive ANMAAT for the inform Burrows yard. His lto win makes him clear on numbers but his pedigree suggests he’s more suited to quick ground.

The next horse in the market is old boy, ADDEYBB who FINALLY gets his ground. He’s had a quiet time of it this season because of the lack of rain so this really will be his last chance this season to notch another win under his belt. As aforementioned, Shaggas’ yard are coming off the boil a bit so I wouldn’t like to be putting any money on him but I’ll be cheering him on. I imagine it’s been a frustrating season for Shaggas not knowing what to do with this ground dependant lad (trust me, I know how he feels).

Out of the others, there are several who, on blood will like the ground, namely the German bred horses.

Our view: Of the British raiders, it would be great to see the old boy, ADDEYBB stick it to the younger lot. The Crisford yard think theirs will run well but I’m not so bullish on the ground, he needs quick imo. A watching race.

16.35 Gr 3 Prix Daniel Wildenstein

10 line up for the mile here and the fast improving EREVANN is very short in the market at 2/1 and rightly so, he was last seen finishing a close 3rd to INSPIRAL in the Jacques ke Marois lto.

He faces easier opposition today (I think anyway) in slop lover, THE REVENANT, who, is a good horse in his own right, but often gets outclassed in anything above Group 3. TRIPLE TIME was a strong bet from us lto and I thought he was going to ruin his race when pulling his head off but got the job done easily, suggesting there will be a lot more to come from him, but he’ll need to find it if he’s to win this.

Our view: I think EREVANN is a banker if running to the level he ran lto .

Best of the British racing

14.42 Gr1 Sun Chariot Stakes

LAUREL has been supplemented for the race and she gives Rab Havlin one of his best chances to win a Gr1. She’s a Kingman filly out of a 1m2f Gr1 winner so she’s bred to be good, although the 18yo mare hasn’t hit the target with any of her previous progeny. With the massive step up in class I think she’s going to find it tough today.

For me, it’s out of SAFFRON BEACH and HOMELESS SONGS. They met in their last race with Saffron Beach coming out the best that day and SB was giving HS 5lbs. Today the weight difference is 3lbs which I think is very harsh on the older horses at this time of year. The 3yos pretty much fully developed and they should be running off level weights imo and I think it’s because of this that the 3yos have a better record in the race. Saying that I really like SAFFRON BEACH. She’s never been out of the top 2 in her 5 previous runs at the track, she won this race last year and I think she’s a better racehorse this year. She’s uncomplicated and isn’t massively ground-dependent, however, I would have liked today to be quicker for her (at time of writing it's good to soft).

HOMELESS SONGS is coming off a lacklustre run but that was after a 111 day break. She’s a very good filly in her own right having ran away with a good renewal of the Irish 1,000 Guineas. She’s capable of winning a race like this and if it was soft ground, I think she’d be a strong win bet.

Excited to see LAURAL pitch it against the big girls although this step up is pretty fucking big… from novice company, straight into a Gr1!? That said, her owners did something similar with NOSTRUM (albeit that was a Gr 3) and he delivered tbf.

Our View: If SAFFRON BEACH handles the slight cut in the ground, she SHOULD win with HOMELESS SONGS to follow her home. Good to soft is THE worst going for this race because if it was either side, each extremity would favour only one of them (SB on quick and HS on slow). Because of this, there isn’t a strong view however the rev fc looks like it could be a play (about 9/4). I don’t think the others are as good (yet) as these two girls.

15.90 Gr 3 Bengough Stakes

I agree with the market support for ROHAAN. He’s rock solid. The good to soft will be to his advantage. He’s ran 4 times at the track, all over today's trip of 6f and he’s won 3 of them. Draw is good and his lto run in the Gr1 Haydock Sprint Cup where he was 3rd is the best form.

COMMANCHE FALLS at 5yo, AL SUHAIL at 5yo and SUMMERGHAND at 8yo fly the flag for the older generation. Commanche Falls has been in great form all year and on weights comes out the best to Summerghand after their Ayr run. CF steps up from handicap company and ordinarily, I’d be wary of that but with sprinters I don’t think there is too much of a difference. AL SUHAIL drops back in trip to 6f from 7f. He hasn’t quite been getting home, he’s a front running, free going sort and I think he’ll be setting it up for a closer like ROHAAN. AL SUHAIL needs to find the form he was in in 2021 to be in with a shout.

One who I like at a price is FLAMING RIB who ran really well lto just behind ROHAAN in 4th at Haydock. The good to soft shouldn’t pose a problem he’s won on soft before, he’s a consistent horse who was second in the Gr1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot so the course and distance is fine for him. Rossa Ryan takes the ride and I think he’ll be really gunning for a good day today after THAT incident at Longchamp.

Our view: ROHAAN to win and FLAMING RIB to place

Risk on

A little behind what with BGP Capital launching next week so all bets will be posted on Twitter.