Equinties - Saffie's League

Author

BGP Capital
July 28, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

We really thought our boy RANGER THUNDERBOLT was going to top off a good day's betting after we landed the first one with SHAGGAS…

but he just bumped into one even better handicapped and arguably better bred.

He ran very well though and did everyone proud. We imagine he’ll be out once or twice more, before heading to the sales where we're sure the jumps boys will get stuck into him. He's a big horse who will be fine over sticks.

Let’s dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

We’ve been hyping up the TOTE’s new Fantasy game since we found it. Why? Simply because there is nothing else out there now which can help people cage the betting chimp while maintaining an emotional interest in the big races of the day.

People bet way too much and the Fantasy allows you to get limited risk on, fill your brain up with the dope it craves and still be in the mix for a big win.

If we hit 100 stables today, top of the BGP private league get’s a new ‘GM’ cap.

Tote

HEADLINE ROUND UP

King George shake up

Declarations came out for Saturday’s King George and 11 are set to run in the most anticipated race of the year.

Of the 15 confirmed at the five-day stage, only four have been scratched, including last year’s winner DESERT CROWN (obviously) and SIMCA MILLE.

In the market, there has been a change since Tuesday as AUGUSTE RODIN has become clear fav at 10/3 with KING OF STEEL at 4/1 and HUKUM at 9/2.

ADAYAR retired

From one King George to another now as news broke this morning that Derby and King George hero, ADAYAR, will now spend life enjoying just being a horse.

A great servant to Charlie Appleby, he’ll be forever remembered as the horse who landed THAT Derby gamble.

Saffie’s League

The first night of the Racing League started last night and like last year, Saffie Osborne was on fire.

Jamie Osborne’s daughter bagged a hat-trick last night, the last with Milton Harris’ ANLILAM in the 1m6f handicap.

Because of that, despite Frankie Dettori’s recent win in the last race, she is top of the jockey standings alongside her team, Wales And The West.

Many of you will notice the irony of this article. For our stupid Racing League selection yesterday, we picked the only ride Saffie didn’t win on lmao.

YOUNG BLOOD

13.50 ASCOT

PANAREA - by LOPE DE VEGA (by SHAMARDAL), she’s a three parts sister to PINATUBO. Could be a machine.

RAWAASI is by BLUE POINT and she looks a real danger today. She made a promising debut at Kempton but again, she’s got an unfortunate draw as stall 1 isn’t great as she’ll no doubt be on the outside but with a few NR’s her life is made easier.

APEELING has an appealing pedigree being by SHOWCASING and a half sister to Gr3 winning 2yo GOOD VIBES and Listed scorer YAKUSHIMA. Definitely one to note and Balding clearly likes her pitching her in to this kind of maiden but his 2yo’s normally come on a lot from their debuts.

GUTSY GIRL is another by BLUE POINT. She was bought back by connections at the yearling sale after not meeting their expectations at 50k. Out of an unraced dam. Best watched on debut but we’ve heard Fellowes really likes her and could be one to follow.

LOKANA by Arc winner WALDGEIST ran 6th on debut, the 3rd and 4th from that race met again and the 4th came out on top. The form has a bit of substance but she’ll need to improve a good deal to win this.

Verdict: This is hard to know what to and in all honesty best watched as there are some rocket fillies in this race.

PANAREA has a lot to like on debut and could be anything, but is short enjoy and yards 2yo debutants haven’t been as forward as previous years.

RAWAASI should improve from her promising debut run but I don't think she’s perhaps what the yard thought she was.

Charlie Fellowes loves GUTSY GIRL. Her pedigree suggests she needs better ground but its drying all the time. She's apparently ready to go and could bag Charlies first 2yo winner of the season at bottom the market.

We know Baldings filly…she’s good but, like most of Balding’s horses, might benefit from a run. That said, Balding won this race last year with our redemption bet double feat. CLOCHETTE and BUCCABAY:

We’re going to suggest the same tactics as REMINDER. Back APEELING on debut just in case she wins but expect her to lose and then go in again next time out and win it back and some.

REMINDER, remember? Backed her fto, lost, backed her not…bolted up.

STATS OF THE DAY

Mixed stats today with none standing out bar those for one trainer today:

Ian Williams has had 5 from 8 horses finish in the placings of the 14.25 and MALAKAHNA looks set to finish in the top 3 today in ground she’ll like. Buick in the plate, he's 2 from 5 for trainer at course.

Ian Williams also runs GORDON GREY in the 19.02. Ian lands 1 in 3 at Newmarket with 3yo handicappers.

RISK ON

We’ll have a small bet against the hot pot from the Young Blood section but the main singles are:

15.35 GAASSE

Sticking with that man Shaggas again. Should win this and then run well in the Ebor. Full bet 5/4.

19.15 QUEEN FOR YOU

Dam won her Gr1 on soft so ground fine. Can put negatives against others lower in market and want to take on the fave who’s winning streak should come to an end soon. Half bet at 3/1.

19.50 SPIRIT DANCER 

Won this race last year and looks laid out for it again. High action so should be okay in soft and really hasn't got much to beat. Full bet at 2/1.