Equinties - Ryanair ticket

Gm Equinauts

This morning was beautiful - the landscape ice cold and bright white, the day starts as the run rises and thaws life to begin day 3 of the new year.

That thawing couldn’t happen quick enough up in Scotland though. We’re passed midday and yet racing trainers and yard staff still have no idea if the racing is to go ahead.

Quite ridiculous.

Of course we understand the course are doing every thing they can be for it to be on, but from the small chance it’s not and they end up canning the meeting gone midday, huge yard, fuel and staff expenses will have been accrued which ultimately get passed down to the owners who are already being shafter by betting restrictions and no prize money.

‘COME RACING’ they shout. Come on.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

JUST THE TICKET FOR RYANAIR?

The King George was a fascinating race to watch this year with IL EST FRANCAIS setting monstrous tempo for it to be simply a case of who the hell can go with that!

As it turns out did, only one could and that was the eventual winner, BANBRIDGE, which suggests IL EST FRANCAIS nearly pulled off something quite remarkable.

But what about those in behind?

Well, L’HOMME PRESSE ran a big race on his first start of the season. Yes, Venetia Williams’ stable have all run well fto this campaign, but it was a big run from him in a hot Grade 1 when everything’s trying. He ran a bold race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year, but connections could lower their sights and send him into a more open race at the Festival this year.

Andy Edwards, owner, said: "I don’t know which race we’re going for at Cheltenham. We’ll enter in both and if it was soft ground we could go in a Ryanair and if it was good ground we could go to the Gold Cup. I’d want to go for whichever we’d have a better chance of winning.

"To make your reappearance in a King George is a big ask when others had run competitively beforehand and were match-fit. He actually clipped heels with Juntos Ganamos and he nearly went down, so he did very well to finish third.

"Charlie [Deutsch] was absolutely thrilled and said he never missed a beat. He said horses like him can take off so far from a fence and sail over it, but he’s got to be careful when he rides at Catterick or Hereford on a Monday because they just can’t do it”.

So, a drop in trip could help an over-exuberant jumper. If you watch his run back in the Gold Cup and see how nicely he travels but just doesn’t really see it out. He won over 2m6f last season and he won over two miles and 2m4f in 2021, so he doesn’t lack speed.

Make him prominent in the Ryanair, he’ll surely go well, especially if the rain comes.

FERGAL O’TRYIN FOR CHANGE

CRAMBO has been a tough horse to campaign for Fergal O’Brien. The Gloucestershire-based trainer has always held him in high regard, but when he was beaten in the stayers’ handicap hurdle at Haydock last season, connections changed jockey quicker than they could say Johnny Burke.

It paid off in the Long Walk Hurdle as Burke steered CRAMBO to victory at Ascot beating reigning champ and people’s favourite, PAISLEY PARK. Frustratingly, he then went on to disappoint in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham which would have killed O’Brien as we all know how deeply he wants a Festival winner.

Like last year, CRAMBO has started his season off well by successfully defending his Long Walk title but how does Fergal avoid a repeat of his disappointing run at Cheltenham last year?

He’s going to have to change it up and that means race planning. O’Brien is now keen to give him a different path to the Stayers’ Hurdle, stating: "He’ll definitely have a run before Cheltenham this year, which he didn’t have last year. I need to speak to the owners, but I’d be keen to go for the Cleeve and then we know whether he handles going left-handed and Cheltenham or not.

"I think you can put a line through last year's run in the Stayers' Hurdle. He was ridden with a bit of cover on the inside and I don’t think we'd ride him like that again. These things are never mistakes as long as you learn from them."

There’s a suspicion that O’Brien readies his horses too hard for big targets at home, so by the time they race, they’re spent. Evidence? CRAMBO last season and he arguably did it with DYSART ENOS in the Greatwood Hurdle this season.

So, by giving CRAMBO a run in late January is perfect, and that prep for the Stayers’ should be much better than last year. If he gets there in good form, he can contribute to a solid race against TEAHUPOO, LUCKY PLACE, BLUEKING D’OROUX, HOME BY THE LEE, and HIDDENVALLEY LAKE.

TIZZARDS TWO

If you were looking for a big weekend post-Christmas in terms of racing, a quick look over the cards would probably leave you a bit disheartened. One Listed race from Sandown is the bulk of the conditions races, but their big race is the veterans’ final over three miles worth £100,000.

In the past, the contest has thrown up some nice clashes between horses we’ve loved for many years, but it’s also produced a few big-priced winners. 17/2, 50/1, 18/1, 10/1, 3/1, 7/1, 12/1, 20/1 and 7/1 is the list of prices over the last 10 years, but can one towards the head of the market buck that trend?

Joe Tizard is double handed at the top of the market with ELDORADO ALLEN and COPPERHEAD but it’s the former who is the fascinating runner in this sphere because it wasn’t too long ago that he was winning Denman Chases and running well behind ALLAHO in the Ryanair! He got to such a high rating, he’s been near impossible to place since his 2022 Denman Chase win and subsequently hasn’t landed one pot in 16 outings!

Because of that, he now holds a rating of 149 and after a recent good run at Cheltenham last month, he’s surely primed to win on returning to three miles back at a track that has served him well in the past.

“He was a classy horse on his day, probably just below Grade 1 level, and you wouldn’t guess he’s the age he is from riding him, so it’s good horses like him have an opportunity to run in a race like this,” said jockey Brendan Powell.

“Copperhead’s definitely a big danger. It’s amazing to think he went so long without winning before getting those three wins on the bounce earlier this season.

“I thought Eldorado Allen travelled well last time and was just a bit outpaced at halfway. I thought to myself if I go with these horses now then I’m going to ruin my own chance, and I’m so pleased I waited as he stayed on really well all the way to the line and the step up in trip is going to suit him.”

Now, we’re not trying to tip him or anything (well, we’ll see in tomorrow’s newsletter) but it’s hard to deny how interesting he is in handicap company off his mark.

RISK ON

We still don’t know if Musselburgh is on, a bit ridiculous given the time! If it’s uncertain to be safe, just call if off early because it’s unfair on trainers and staff otherwise.

If there is a jumps bet (if Muss is on) we will post later on X @equinties.