Equinties - Royal Ascot day 2

Gm Equinauts

Yesterday was a day of mixed results, and not just for the newsletter, as TRIPLE TIME got Royal Ascot (and the bookies) underway in style.

I'm not sure how many horses have won in a gag, let alone a Royal Ascot Group 1 race so it was very impressive.

Don't know what a gag is? It's like a snaffle, which all race horses wear, but a gag has two extra rings meaning when the jockey pulls the reins, it both pulls the mouth and puts pressure on the poll (top of the head).

Even with the extra leverage on the head, Neil Callan had a job trying to keep a lid on him. If you watch the start of the race back, you'd be forgiven for assuming he was going to blow up (we did) but instead he did this:

Our NAP HIGHFIELD PRINCESS was subject to a Stewards having been impeded in running by our 2022 Coventry pick BRADSELL. They were both well clear of the field and BRADSELL veered left carrying HIGHFIELD PRINCESS with him.

Would the result be different if BRADSELL ran straight? We don't know, quite possibly, but the Stewards made their decision and that was our NAP down.

Now, rant time.

Hollie Doyle got a 4 day ban. Why!? This is where the rules don't make sense. If the Stewards think she deserves a ban for her riding, chuck the horse out. If they're not going to chuck the horse out and the results stand, don't ban her. Can't have one without the other in my mind.

The result of the day for the newsletter came in the 'basically a bumper' race, the Ascot Stakes where we had TRITONIC placing at 30's (20's SP) with LAW OF THE SEA following him in fourth at 10's. The yield on those two took us into a profitable day to compliment the 1st and 3rd Coventry.

Time to push on and nail day two. Let's dive in.

BGP FANTASY LEAGUE COMP

Day 2 of Royal Ascot - lock the chimp away by playing the Fantasy game!

Use code QHZ36G to add your stable to the BGP league.

ROYAL ASCOT DAY 2

14.30 GROUP 2 QUEEN MARY STAKES

Without a doubt one of the races of the meeting. Hold on to your hat… 28 2yo fillies spread across the track over 5f, it’s going to be bedlam.

4/1 the field. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND (we backed) won lto in very taking fashion, she came from the breeze ups, will know her job, trainer does well with his 2yos, plenty to like but can be a bit fizzy, needs to settle in the prelims.

BORN TO ROCK has also come from the breeze ups, by SOLDIERS CALL, looked very good on debut jumping out of the stalls and winning pillar to post, there’s A LOT of pace in this race and BTR is one of them.

RELIEF RALLY is 2 from 2 for Shaggas, the form of her last runs look questionable but did beat GAIDEN who ran well to be third nto in the Marygate and re-opposes today.

MIDNIGHT AFFAIR impressed on her debut where she met traffic and then won cozily lto (we backed) at Carlisle, the second FLORA OF BERMUDA (had word she’s quite nice, played the FC with Midnight Affair, was a 340k Bup) and 6th CALLIANASSA re-oppose her today. MIDNIGHT AFFAIR will be held up and with the US fillies around her she could get a lovely tow into the race.

GOT TO LOVE A GREYhas ran well both times she’s gone to the track showing a tenacious attitude. She won the Marygate lto (previous recent winners have been Signora Cabello (won at RA), CEILING KITTY (won at RA) and PATIENCE ALEXANDER (3rd at RA) - GTLAG ran a quicker time than all of them breaking the race record), the second has since ran 3rd in a Listed race in France. The third, the aforementioned GAIDEN re-opposes.

BUNDCHEN comes from the colourful Wesley Ward team, in recent times it hasn’t been plain sailing for him but he’s got to be taken seriously when he brings one over, he’s had 12 winners since 2009. It really gets his d*ck hard when he has a winner! BUNDCHEN is by the top top sire of the moment GUN RUNNER, has one run in which she came 2nd by a whisker, that was on dirt and she’s by a dirt stallion.

CRIMSON ADVOCATE showed a huge amount of speed winning pillar to post, she’ll leave the stalls like a greyhound and it’s just a question of her staying the straight 5f, her win was round a bend.

BALSAM is the ride of Ryan Moore, had 3 runs so far winning on her latest outing she’ll be looking to go one better than her half sister AL JOHRAH who was second to LADY AURELIA in this race. Shes by WOOTTON BASSETT and also a half sister to useful Group horse STORMY ANTARCTIC. Al Shaqab sold the dam for €28k this year.

CYNANE gave her sire, OMAHA BEACH, his first winner. She won pillar to post like most of these other US raiders. Improvement highly likely, trainer Thomas Morley is English and was assistant to Jeremy Noseda so this will mean a lot to him.

OUT OF THE STARS is o/o OUT OF THE FLAMES who was 3rd in this race in 2017. By Aussie speed stallion ZOUSTAR she made an encouraging debut at Kempton; although winning by a short margin she was drawn 8 and slowly away which is a huge disadvantage at kempton. It was a bunch finish however and the form doesn’t read well.

Verdict: This is ridiculously tough. If you’re going to play the race you are better to do two or even three. There is soooo much pace in here so MIDNIGHT AFFAIR and GOT TO LOVE A GREY can take advantage of that. Can see this going to either of Burke's girls, GTLAG or BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND. Burkey's oh so good with his fast sprinters.

15.40 GROUP 2 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES

A Group 2 over a mile for the girls. The last five runnings of this race has gone to a Newmarket trainer and Jane Chapple-Hyam returns with INTERNATIONALANGEL to defend her crown after SAFFRON BEACH's demolition job last year,

Le'ts start with the rep from last year's winning yard INTERNATIONALANGEL. She's been keeping busy out in Dubai so this hot weather won't be a problem and she'll be very fit coming into this but has too much to find. The trophy will be going to someone else this year, sorry Jane.

To buck the Newmarket trainers trend of dominance in this race, JUMBLY for Joseph O'Brien is strong fave for this. Her last race for Roger Charlton was pipping OSCULA for a Gr3 at Ascot last year on quick. She has since moved to Ireland to rep new owner, Tabor, and finished close second to JUST BEAUTIFUL in a Gr2 containing a couple who reoppose her again in GOLDANA and HONEY GIRL.

GRANDE DAME reps the Gosden's yard who won this race in '20 and '21. GRANDE DAME's last win was in the Listed Distaff and she was busy last year racing 6 times but now comes here after a good break. Her pedigree needs lightning quick conditions, which she gets but like the yard's other filly INSPIRAL, a chance will have to be taken that she is fit enough the first time out this season. Her Chariot form stakes ahead of PROSPEROUS VOYAGE puts her firmly in the mix.

The mare with the good form coming into this race is PROSPEROUS VOYAGE who won for this newsletter lto in the Gr3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom, but is she still as good as in previous years? Ground is important to this girl, she's been beaten by a couple in this race in unideal conditions (namely GRANDE DAME and LAUREL) but is a machine on firm going and proved that by finishing second in the 1000 Guineas last year.

The mare PV just beat at Epsom, RANDOM HARVEST, is reopposing her today. It's tough to see her reversing the form unless PV underperforms.

Verdict: Most of the field, in our opinion, either have a bit to find or needs slower conditions. Despite winning for us lto, PROSPEROUS VOYAGE doesn't look the same horse. The safe ew to nothing could be GRANDE DAME. 

16.20 GROUP 1 PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES

To many, the Prince Of Wales is the real highlight of the week. A mile and a quarter of battle hardened athletes. Generally it is a small field, and today is no different. But because it is a small field, tactics and riding prowess can be magnified.

Ryan Moore is the best jockey in the world. LUXEMBOURG is his mount, and he has fought some battles over the last 3 years. He finished his 2yo career as a Gr1 winner, he finished his 3yo career with a gutsy win in the Gr1 Irish Champion Stakes on his penultimate start and this year he has just won the Gr1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

BAY BRIDGE, 1lbs behind Luxembourg in ratings is the stead carrying Richard Kingscote. The son of NEW BAY was second in this last year, and he could well go one better. He did in fact have LUXEMBOURG one better in Ireland last time out, but the roles could easily reverse.

ADAYAR, Derby winner and King George winner. He’ll need an equally good performance to win this but he is very capable. The son of FRANKELis a monster, he’ll love the track but is the 1 mile 2 furlongs on the short side now, he has always looked at his best over another 2 furlongs and something is up with the Godolphin yard.

MY PROSPERO is the unexposed type that will appreciate the step up in trip from his last run in the Lockinge. That was a mighty run but after the Queen Anne yesterday the form looks patchy. Rated 121, the same as ADAYAR he’ll have to improve again to take the scalp of the others.

MOSTAHDAF is a 20/1 shot and to be perfectly honest not many people would say he can beat these. A fourth place finish in Dubai in the Sheema Classic leaves him a little short, as does his three other attempts in Group 1 company.

Verdict: Right, the verdict. LUXEMBOURG edges it. We can;t see BAY BRIDGE reversing the form and he would be the bet if we weren’t so damn loved up with MY PROSPERO. We think LUXEMBOURG should win, but it’s a no bet race and we’ll be cheering on Shaggas.

17.35 GROUP 2 QUEEN'S VASE

The Queen’s Vase is an interesting contest this year as the top of the market is dominated by the unexposed GREGORY for John & Thady Golden.

He won over 1m3f lto and was always staying on at the line - by GOLDEN HORN out of a GALILEO mare, who won twice over 1m4f and once over 1m6f, he would suggest the step up in trip should be fine and no one knows where his ceiling is at 7/4.

At the five-day stage, Aidan O’Brien had 4 entered for the Queen’s Vase and despite not being the shortest-priced runner ante-post, PEKING OPERA is the sole representative and choice of Ryan Moore.

Having won on his last two starts, one of them a victory over stablemate BERTINELLI, the GALILEO colt is thoroughly progressive and his dam, BUGLE, is a sister to the Gr1 winner AIR FORCE BLUE, so the pedigree is strong.

Having been unsuccessful as an operation yesterday, Godolphin have one chance in the race for Simon & Ed Crisford with CHESSPIECE.

Having only raced three times, winning two, he beat Hadrianus on debut (now rated 102) and got to within 5.5 lengths of MILITARY ORDER at Newbury at the beginning of the season on ground that wouldn’t have suited and he is still very unexposed.

Similarly, CIRCLE OF FIRE was third to MILITARY ORDER in the Lingfield Derby and connections have decided to swerve a few potential targets to come here - he could be The King’s best chance of a winner this week and visually he looked strong and finished fast suggesting there is more to come over further.

Verdict: He might be short for a reason but GREGORY is just too short and he looked slow as a boat lto. CIRCLE OF FIRE looks the safe ew play in this race.

YOUNG BLOOD

Last race of the day is a listed race for 2yo’s. If you’re on the back foot punting wise at this stage it’s not a good race to try to get your money back with 26 runners.

BARNWELL BOY scorched the Goodwood turf on debut, interestingly he drops a furlong today but clearly doesn’t lack speed. By speed stallion STARSPANGLEDBANNER o/o a Jane Newett homebred, dam sire is FRANKEL from a speedy family.

JOHANNES BRAHMS is by gun sire SIYOUNI, cost 200k from Betfair founder Andrew Blacks stud farm. Dam won over 1m to 1m2. Won narrowly on debut looking beat a furlong out, should (will need to) improve from that run.

MAXIMUM IMPACT won well on debut by 12 lengths and then won cozily over course and distance beating the re-opposing ACTION POINT. MI hit the line well suggesting trip isn’t a problem and the form won’t be reversed. Kevin Stott pick.

BOMBAY BAZAAR has ran three times and won well at Beverley the two times he has ran there. Trainer has a good record in the meetings 2yo races but he’ll need to take another step forward, which in such a short period of time is hard. BB beat FUSTERLANDIA lto giving him 4lbs. FUSTERLANDIA has been unlucky on his 2 starts to date being beaten by very short margins. Improvement is likely and stable can get one ready for the big day but he looks up against it in this company. Connections will be hopeful of a place.

ALABAMA is a three parts brother to SIOUX NATION who won this race in 2017. Ryan Moore has picked Johannes Brahms over him.

SERGEANT WILKO was privately purchased after his debut run where he looked the winner a furlong out but got nipped on the line by a horse who has since ran very well in the Woodcote. SW won nto beating the Brockelsby runner up. There is substance to the form but it won’t be easy with his running style on the front end. Place money is the target and a nice day out for King Power Racing.

WORLD OF DARCY was second to ELITE STATUS lto at Sandown and looks a solid horse who will run his race.

Verdict: Visually, BARNWELL BOY was very impressive on debut and, like all good Johnston horses, will be hard to peg back from the front.

DAY 2 SELECTIONS

We’ve had a brilliant run since Cheltenham, now is NOT the time to give it all back. Use our picks to play small or choose your Fantasy team. Horses with an asterisks are the stronger selections.

14.30 KARL BURKE

15:05 /

15:40 GRANDE DAME EW

16:20 LUXEMBOURG*

17:00 GHALY EW

17:35 CIRCLE OF FIRE EW

18:10 BARNWELL BOY

*as aforementioned, we’re not betting LUX, but we do think he can win. MY PROSPERO is a horse that has been so good to us and would love to see him win.